Bitcoin - Part 2

[phiwum]

The rally has occurred, so I claim another victory for my algorithm. $8504 at 9:06am. I’m at 100%.

The algorithm is showing continued growth...followed by decline...then more growth, decline, a rally, then a correction. I can never be wrong really. All I have to do is make a prediction and wait for the volatile price to make me right!


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Well, you could be wrong, since the term "correction" has, I think, a technical meaning. You should stick to up and down.

Rally might also have a technical meaning, not sure.

 

[psionl0]

Well, you could be wrong, since the term "correction" has, I think, a technical meaning. You should stick to up and down.

Rally might also have a technical meaning, not sure.

Assuming that these are indeed errors and given that xjx388's tongue is so firmly planted in their cheek that it is sticking out on the other side, xjx388 is still making more sense than many on this thread.

 

[xjx388]

Well, you could be wrong, since the term "correction" has, I think, a technical meaning. You should stick to up and down.

Rally might also have a technical meaning, not sure.

Just more proof that I have no idea what I’m talking about in this realm!

Yet my algorithm is fool-proof!


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[BobTheCoward]

Of course I have. So soundly that you have never dared to admit that those posts even exist - let alone address them.


Exactly. Bitcoin is not a tulip bulb nor a choo choo train nor a debt instrument (nor a tariff which you conveniently forgot that this book is about).

What you're really hoping is that "Panics and Their Periodical Occurrence", as mentioned in the book is addressing bitcoin.

For those that skipped a bunch of pages in the middle, what do you mean by not a tulip bulbs? Obviously it isn't literally a tulip bulbs. But what is your key point that separates it from that mania?

 

[trustbutverify]

Just more proof that I have no idea what I’m talking about in this realm!

Yet my algorithm is fool-proof!


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My algorithm is riding the bull to glory! I'll never doubt it again... TA for the win!

 

[trustbutverify]

Well, you could be wrong, since the term "correction" has, I think, a technical meaning. You should stick to up and down.

Rally might also have a technical meaning, not sure.

A rally is a bout of strong buying, occurring after an (over)extended decline, resulting in a return to an efficient market ...supposedly. A correction is the exact opposite. Essentially, it's the shedding of excessive panic and greed from price discovery. Supposedly. So I guess you're right, XJX is using the term incorrectly, from a technical pov. He'd be calling for an extension of the rally.

 

[psionl0]

For those that skipped a bunch of pages in the middle, what do you mean by not a tulip bulbs? Obviously it isn't literally a tulip bulbs. But what is your key point that separates it from that mania?

I have been over this many times. There are a lot of differences between bitcoin and tulip bulbs but I will only mention one: The tulip mania only lasted one year and never recurred while bitcoin has gone through many price cycles in its 10 year history and there are no signs of it ending.

 

[jrhowell]

One risk of holding Bitcoin is the potential loss due to software flaws. See Old JavaScript Crypto Flaw Puts Bitcoin Funds at Risk.

 

[psionl0]

One risk of holding Bitcoin is the potential loss due to software flaws. See Old JavaScript Crypto Flaw Puts Bitcoin Funds at Risk.

Statements such as "less than 48 bits of entropy", "more predictable than it should be" or "may guess the account's private key" are pretty vague. It doesn't tell us how vulnerable the old addresses are.

Still, the advice given at the end of the article is good advice:

Bitcoin users who generated Bitcoin addresses using affected tools are advised to generate new Bitcoin addresses with a new tool and move funds from old accounts to the new ones.

 

[BobTheCoward]

I have been over this many times. There are a lot of differences between bitcoin and tulip bulbs but I will only mention one: The tulip mania only lasted one year and never recurred while bitcoin has gone through many price cycles in its 10 year history and there are no signs of it ending.

Cool.thank you for the catch up.

 

[Samson]

Interesting case. My nephew remembered he bought a bitcoin years ago, found it somehow, and bought a car. Pretty well my only direct evidence that bitcoin is any use.

 

[PartSkeptic]

Last post on 3 April was:
If I sold it all today I would get 100 x $7334 = $733,400.
I had $0 and 100 bitcoin as my start.
Now I have $146,680 and 80 bitcoin.

13 April
Price now 7812. Time to sell the peak.

Let me sell 40 bitcoin.
Now I have $459,160 and 40 bitcoin = Current worth $771,640

22 April
Price now 8853.
Another little peak. Let me sell 20 bitcoin.
Now I have $636,220 and 20 bitcoin = Current worth $813,280

 

[Eddie Dane]

22 April
Price now 8853.
Another little peak. Let me sell 20 bitcoin.
Now I have $636,220 and 20 bitcoin = Current worth $813,280

 

[xjx388]

22 April

Price now 8853.

Another little peak. Let me sell 20 bitcoin.

Now I have $636,220 and 20 bitcoin = Current worth $813,280

Do you actually have this or is this a thought experiment? In any case, you are leaving out fees, which can be quite substantial for such large transfers. The miners charge fees and so do the exchanges. Bitcoin speculation, such as you are modeling here, is too expensive. If you bought your bitcoin at the recent low point, let’s say 6500, it would have cost you 650000 plus fees to buy that bitcoin. Add in trading fees and Your profit is substantially lower.

I got lucky as I bought my bitcoin super low and sold when super high. I paid through the nose to convert to USD.


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[PartSkeptic]

If you see my first post on this you will see that I proposed we all play a game. Start with 100 bitcoin and see if one can improve on just selling all of them outright.

Darned if the price does not keep rising. I will have to be more sure of a peak which means selling just after it has a definite drop.

So far I am making "money" on a rising market.

You are right about fees and other expenses.

 

[BobTheCoward]

I have been over this many times. There are a lot of differences between bitcoin and tulip bulbs but I will only mention one: The tulip mania only lasted one year and never recurred while bitcoin has gone through many price cycles in its 10 year history and there are no signs of it ending.

I understand that you don't see it as a mania or a fad. What do you see it as? What is the end game here?

 

[Fudbucker]

So, any plans for people to use these bitcoins for anything other than buying drugs, hiring hitmen, or paying off ransomware attackers? Does Amazon, say, have any plans to accept it as currency?

 

[psionl0]

I understand that you don't see it as a mania or a fad. What do you see it as? What is the end game here?

I don't know that there is an end game.

I suspect that crypto-currencies in one form or another are here to stay. They obviously can't replace conventional currencies but they will probably complement them to some extent. (Bitcoin itself probably won't be used as an everyday currency because of its built in spending disincentives).

What is more interesting is the blockchain. It has far more potential uses than just ledger entries. Electronic voting and smart contracts are 2 possible applications. Since blockchain entries are immutable they are much more reliable than paper records.

If nameless electronic wallets were permissible then blockchain technology could be used for fiat currencies as well as crypto-currencies (yes, I know, politicians and bankers are having an apoplexy at the mere thought).

 

[Samson]

I don't know that there is an end game.

I suspect that crypto-currencies in one form or another are here to stay. They obviously can't replace conventional currencies but they will probably complement them to some extent. (Bitcoin itself probably won't be used as an everyday currency because of its built in spending disincentives).

What is more interesting is the blockchain. It has far more potential uses than just ledger entries. Electronic voting and smart contracts are 2 possible applications. Since blockchain entries are immutable they are much more reliable than paper records.

If nameless electronic wallets were permissible then blockchain technology could be used for fiat currencies as well as crypto-currencies (yes, I know, politicians and bankers are having an apoplexy at the mere thought).

Clearly blockchain is like railways and internet, don't own them, use them.

 

[Samson]

Paypal guy might have lanced the boil. Bitcoin down 7% since.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12039408