• Quick note - the problem with Youtube videos not embedding on the forum appears to have been fixed, thanks to ZiprHead. If you do still see problems let me know.

School shooting Florida

Status
Not open for further replies.
The value of the straw market has just crashed due to a large, cheap, easily accessable deposit being found in this post.

Lets break it down. Bob is a carpenter of 25 years building a wooden box for fun. He has nails he needs to drive into some wood. He does not have a hammer. He decides to use the metal handle of his rubber mallet. Is Bob going to be as efficient at driving the nails in to the wood using a rubber mallet handle as he normally would be with a claw hammer?
Of course not. But will he drive the nail into the wood using the metal handle of his rubber mallet?

Using your analogy, let's say Bob the carpenter, who everybody knows is a little unstable, comes into the school and starts building a wooden box. The box he builds is not the best wooden box that has ever been built. But it's still a decent wooden box. But the kids at the high school are really angry about this wooden box because they think there are way too many wooden boxes out there and they want it stopped. So they do what high school students do whenever they have a grievance--whether it's not enough parking spaces on campus or too many wooden boxes--they put together a town hall meeting to be broadcast nationwide and around the world on CNN to draw attention to wooden box construction. Wooden boxes were not something these students really thought about much prior to Bob's wooden box being constructed on campus. But they have a week to study the issue and they conclude that we can stop wooden boxes from being constructed if weren't so easy to drive nails into wood. So they demand that the grownups take away everybody's claw hammer so nobody can drive a nail into wood. The grownups do what the kids tell them to do and they take away all the claw hammers. Do you think that the lack of claw hammers will make it nearly impossible for somebody to drive nails into wood if ball peen hammers are still available? Will that stop wooden boxes from being constructed.
 
Well NRA supports the current model, where everybody can have gun, unless there is 'a problem' with him. And 'a problem' does not include mental illness .. no medicine 'background check' is needed.
In most countries the model that nobody can have gun, unless they get the license. Which is much more thorough and longer process, typically also including medical evaluation. And in most countries the gun is registered, so in case of change in mental state of the gun holder, the guns can be taken from him.

In this case it was very simple for Cruz to get a gun, and him buying gun was completely legal. AFAIK nobody who knew about his psychological problems was bound to do anything by law.

I see role of NRA more in uniting voters, rather then lobbying. Republicans and Trump have pro-gun opinions openly and for a long time. It's not like they are doing something against their voters. NRA is good in keeping the opinion 'any gun control is bad' .. and democrats are not helping with extreme or uninformed anti-gun ideas.

It's quite clear nothing will happen at least as long as Trump is in office. I mean nothing gun-control related. He might arm the teachers or ban video games .. yahoo ..
 
Close. Like most (all?) developed countries, the homicide rate in Australia was declining before the 1996 Confiscation and Ban took effect. For that reason, it is very difficult, even for the most skilled criminologist, to determine it's affect. While there are some statisticians who believe there was a positive effect, the inter-rater reliability among the profession is unsatisfactory.

Other examples of 1st world countries where gun prohibition failed are Ireland, UK, and Canada. I respectfully decline to engage in conversation based on the narrative you've set in your last paragraph.

Firearms are not prohibited in Canada. Owners are licensed and those without a license cannot purchase ammunition. Certain classes of firearms are prohibited.

There are 3 classes of firearms in Canada - Unrestricted, Restricted, Prohibited.

Off the stop of my head the types include:

Unrestricted: Shotguns - min. barrel length of 18", max capacity 3 rounds
Rifles - min. barrel length of 18", max capacity of 5 rounds (exemptions for the Lee Enfield, rifles with a fixed mag capacity and no detachable magazine, rifles with a tubular magazine, .22 rim fire rifles)
Restricted: pistols with a barrel length greater than 4", max mag. Capacity of 10 rounds
Modern military style rifles
Prohibited: automatic or selective fire weapons,
Rifles or shotguns with a barrel length of less than 18"
Pistols with a barrel length of less than 4"

And before anyone asks, yes the police forces and military have exemptions.
 
I'm sure you can provide statistical confirmation of that statement depending on how you define guns, carry, and violent crime.

I could provide confirmation, sure. No need to resort to odd ways to define guns, carry, or violent crime, though. There would be little point, though, in this case.

Just as I call upon my knowledge of rural Pennsylvania during buck season to prove that everybody in town can be armed and there will be no crime, violent or otherwise.

Sure. The two statements aren't actually in conflict, though. Rather, when one selectively limits the field of play, like you just did right after trying to insinuate that I was doing that, it's not hard to come up with cases where a general trend is not as applicable.

When the only solution being offered to stop school shootings is to reduce the number of guns, it sounds like the whole problem is being blamed on the number of guns.

Given that that's not even close to the only solution being either suggested or pushed? Your premise is simply false and the arguments that you've been building on that premise can simply be dismissed out of hand.

When the solution being offered to stop school shootings is to ban a type of gun that already been banned

Previously. The assault rifle "ban" ended in 2004. Are you maybe talking about something else, though?

or ban a type of gun for which other guns can be substituted,

Would they be just as effective? I've heard noise about AR-15s and guns that have similar features that increase their potential to kill en masse dramatically over, say, hunting rifles, but none over, say, hunting rifles or things that can shoot projectiles, as you tried to reductio ad absurdum to earlier.


it still sounds like the whole problem is being blamed on the number of guns but that the people offering up the solution are stupid, uninformed, and/or have ulterior motives.

Given how wildly false your premise is, your complaint makes you sound like you are stupid, uninformed, and/or have ulterior motives.




When your rebuttal is "What you said is so stupid it's obvious you're wrong" means you don't have a rebuttal. Don't worry, there's alot of that around here.

:rolleyes: No, given how stupid and/or uninformed your arguments have frequently been and your repeated failure to engage in honest discussion, it's gotten to the point where it's not worth wasting my time to do an in depth refutation when it passes a certain level of bad. But sure, since you're so sure that you're right....

You started off assigning others with an idiotic premise that no one was even remotely claiming or coming close to claiming -

What I think is stupid is the idea that the guns are what causes the violence in our society and that banning them, or some of them, is going to stop people from being violent.

Followed that with a related, but just as unheld premise -

Thinking that restricting guns is going to solve the problem of violence in schools or violence in general is ignoring history.

Followed that with questionably relevant information

We've passed laws against assault rifles and we still have school shootings.

Seriously, who's claimed that school shootings would just end if assault rifles were less accessible? At best, the claim related to school shootings is that fewer accessible assault rifles would tend to make school shootings less harmful on average and maybe discourage a subset of potential school shooters, not provide some magical school shooting cure.

We've passed laws against sawn off shotguns and we still have school shootings.

This one, on the other hand is just... :confused:. I have no idea at all what you're referring to. Sawed off shotguns, at last check, are still quite legal, though some may indeed require something like registration and a background check to be legally owned. For both of these notes about laws, though, they're half-assed arguments, not least because "laws" are not necessarily either good or effective laws and because the laws weren't designed as magical cures to school shootings in the first place.

If we make the AR-15 and every other gun built on the AR-15 platform illegal, is that going to stop school shootings? If it doesn't, what do we do next?

Of course not. The intent, where it relates to assault rifles and mass shootings, in general, would be to reduce the average potential deadliness of mass shooters. That's very, very different from the intent that you're trying to claim is in play. As for what to do next? Given that there are quite a few other suggestions that have also been on the table for a while, there's plenty of potential options to work with, regardless.


I'd be interested in hearing what good things you think the NRA has been doing.

There's a lot of programs related to gun safety and gun sports that they're heavily involved in, at last check, to name a large group of quite non-controversially good things that they do.

Blaming the NRA for the actual things they've been doing is entirely fair. Blaming them for the failures at Parkland is entirely unfair.

Ehh... in a direct sense, yes. Indirectly, they've been pushing hard to change the legal and social landscape into a much more permissive shape for guns.

They don't advocate for letting mentally unstable people acquire guns.

Actions speak louder than words. They might not officially "advocate" it, and may even talk about how much they're opposed to it, but when they actively oppose just about any measures that would be able to actually prevent unstable people from acquiring guns anytime they think they can (yes, including background checks, which they lobbied hard to sabotage, in part and in full, at the same time as they officially "supported" them, then immediately and repeatedly fought against in court and with misleading or false propaganda in efforts to sabotage it), it's quite hard to take their claims seriously.

They don't advocate that law enforcement and social services ignore multiple warnings about a dangerous individual.

No, they don't. On the other hand, they push for bills to make shooting other people more generally unprosecutable with how extensive "stand your ground" laws have been made and how they're to be handled. They strongly pushed against "red flag" laws that would have given a much, much clearer and direct justification to (at least temporarily) take away Cruz's guns during a number of the times when the police were supposedly feeling like they were practically helpless to do so in that particular situation. More could likely be said, but their role is far more one of setting the stage, rather than being a direct actor on the stage.

The blame for Parkland is entirely on social services and especially the liar Sheriff Scott Israel for his failure to prevent this from happening and failure to stop it once it had.

Entirely? No. Most strongly and directly? Sure.
 
Last edited:
Firearms are not prohibited in Canada. Owners are licensed and those without a license cannot purchase ammunition. Certain classes of firearms are prohibited.

There are 3 classes of firearms in Canada - Unrestricted, Restricted, Prohibited.

Off the stop of my head the types include:

Unrestricted: Shotguns - min. barrel length of 18", max capacity 3 rounds
Rifles - min. barrel length of 18", max capacity of 5 rounds (exemptions for the Lee Enfield, rifles with a fixed mag capacity and no detachable magazine, rifles with a tubular magazine, .22 rim fire rifles)
Restricted: pistols with a barrel length greater than 4", max mag. Capacity of 10 rounds
Modern military style rifles
Prohibited: automatic or selective fire weapons,
Rifles or shotguns with a barrel length of less than 18"
Pistols with a barrel length of less than 4"

And before anyone asks, yes the police forces and military have exemptions.

Sounds like an insult to the very idea of freedom and liberty and your socialist hell-hole of a country is obviously going to hell in a handcart. ;)

For the non-loonies, it seems to have produced a system where most people who want or need a weapon can have one, and where spree shootings are much reduced compared with your southern neighbour.
 
... I call upon my knowledge of rural Pennsylvania during buck season to prove that everybody in town can be armed and there will be no crime, violent or otherwise...


That seems plausible. It suggests that it's not a problem for a large proportion of people to be armed when they have a particular purpose in mind which does not involve shooting at other people. No problem for America to address with that group, I would agree.
Concentrate more on people who want guns for shooting people.
 
Let me see if I understand. After the Aussie gun seizure, homicide rates declined, but it's possible they would have declined anyway, so we can't tell if it made any difference. Did I get that right?

Yes, indeed violent crime in general has declined all over the world, including the USA.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime...e:Violent_crime_rates_by_gender_1973-2003.jpg

There is no causal link between types of gun civilians can possess and the rate of gun crime and massacres. The UK had two instances of amending the law to remove certain types of gun from civilian ownership and then there was another massacre using a shotgun and bolt action rifle. Neither have been banned, otherwise there really would be pretty much no gun allowed in civilian ownership in the UK.

From a statistician's perspective, that's correct. A sample size of one will never really show anything anyway.

Still, if it worked once, it might be a coincidence, but it might actually have worked. The argument of "Well, sure, it worked, but we don't know if it was really because of that or if there was some other thing that caused it" is always very persuasive to those who already agree with you.

I don't advocate Aussie-style gun seizure, but your argument against it isn't very powerful. I think that to strengthen your argument you would have to include some variation of "This bad thing happened after the gun seizures."
You did note the cost of implementing such a proposal in the United States, and that's a legitimate argument.

The part of the Australian and UK firearms law changes which took place after the massacres at Port Arthur and Dunblane that keep on being ignored in favour of masses of debate over the type of gun, is the improvements made to background checks and security, which makes it harder for someone unsuitable to have a gun, to get hold of one.

In both theory and practice, so long as only suitable people have guns ad can get hold of a gun, it does not matter what type of gun they have.

For example, the Czech Republic. Automatic weapons are allowed with approval, semi-automatic and others are absolutely fine and in 2016 there were 45 crimes involving a firearm.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun_laws_in_the_Czech_Republic#Incidents_and_gun_crimes

From country to country all over the western world, there is a huge variation in what guns people can possess. The common factor is they have, through a system of universal licensing, decent background checks and proper security for guns not in use, made sure only suitable people have and can get at the guns.
 
What has failed in the UK? No mass shootings since restrictions on automatic and semi-automatic rifles and handguns were put in place?

1987 - Hungerford Massacre, perpetrator used semi-auto guns
1988 - Firearms Amendment Act bans semi auto weapons

1996 - Dunblane Massacre, perpetrator used handguns
1997 - Firearms Amendment bans (most) handguns

2010 - Cumbria Massacre
2011 - no new legislation

Unless literally no one has any gun, there is always a chance of a massacre.
 
What I think is stupid is the idea that the guns are what causes the violence in our society and that banning them, or some of them, is going to stop people from being violent. Thinking that restricting guns is going to solve the problem of violence in schools or violence in general is ignoring history. We've passed laws against assault rifles and we still have school shootings. We've passed laws against sawn off shotguns and we still have school shootings. If we make the AR-15 and every other gun built on the AR-15 platform illegal, is that going to stop school shootings? If it doesn't, what do we do next?

<snip>


Merely passing laws has no relationship to their efficacy. As you yourself point out, they can still be broken. They can also be useless, feel-good laws with no useful application to the problems, with carefully crafted loopholes which make actual compliance a joke, without adequate funding to support their enforcement, and with no real teeth to the enforcement penalties, so that violators have no particular fear of being caught.

This doesn't mean that legislation has no place in the discussion, only that it isn't being done very well.
 
He used a Shotgun.

There's no way there would be any restrictions on shotguns, can't have the toffs inconvenienced.
 
He used a Shotgun.

There's no way there would be any restrictions on shotguns, can't have the toffs inconvenienced.

The Cumbria shooting was a rifle and a shotgun.

1989 - Monseaton mass shooting (1 dead, 14 injured) shotgun used
1990 - no change in legislation.

The precedent was already there, that shoguns were not to be made harder to get.

The point is, that UK helps to evidence that the gun type is the least important issue when trying to reduce gun crime and massacres.

Most important is to ensure the people with access to guns are suitable.
The next is security when the gun is not in possession of that suitable person.
 
Last edited:
But then, Australia ban was focused more toward mass shootings.
No mass shooting happened since then. But not many happened before. Too little data.

General crime and suicides are mostly done with handguns, and those were not banned, just licensed. And as any country with little regulation, there are still tons of black guns on the market. So I think we couldn't even expect any big difference in suicides and general crime. And it would be the same in US.
Australia may have eliminated mass shootings, however, the homicide trend rate remained unchanged. The same amount of life has been lost. The Australia public is no more safe due to the 1996 firearms legislation.
 
1987 - Hungerford Massacre, perpetrator used semi-auto guns
1988 - Firearms Amendment Act bans semi auto weapons

1996 - Dunblane Massacre, perpetrator used handguns
1997 - Firearms Amendment bans (most) handguns

2010 - Cumbria Massacre
2011 - no new legislation

Unless literally no one has any gun, there is always a chance of a massacre.
I agree Nessie. I believe that the gun prohibitionist are being disingenuous. Complete gun prohibition is their true motive.

As your real-world example shows, banning AR-15's will do little to prevent mass shootings. As a particular type of gun becomes less available, it would make sense that the chances of that gun being used in a mass shooting would decrease. The chosen firearm would shift to a different type. So on and so forth until we reach the ultimate conclusion that all semi-autos are banned.

At that point we'd show a chart that homicides caused by firearms had decreased and pat ourselves on the back. Then we'd look at the total homicide rate and see that the outlawing of semi-auto guns had little to no impact on the homicide rate. Sure, mass shootings would decrease to almost zero (because there are still guns on the black market) but since mass shootings are such a small part of the homicides, eliminating mass shootings is statistically insignificant, therefore, greatly reducing mass shootings didn't have an effect on the homicide rate. Our time and energy was spend in-vain. It didn't have the positive impact that we thought it would. Focusing on the tool used in homicides is not the best way forward to protecting the vitality of human life.
 
Australia may have eliminated mass shootings, however, the homicide trend rate remained unchanged. The same amount of life has been lost. The Australia public is no more safe due to the 1996 firearms legislation.


Yeah, the number of dead people from mass shootings, even in the United States, is pretty statistically insignificant.

If those rascals in the liberal media didn't keep showing us photos of them, no one would care.
 
I don't know who is being murdered in Australia and how the trends are going, nor am I going to bother to look it up at the moment, but I would point out what I think might be a relevant point: that overall murder rates do not necessarily reflect who is being murdered and how safe everyone is.

There are many variables, but, to pick an obvious and simplistic one, if the murder rate among drug dealers and urban gang members rises, it does not likely increase the murder rate from mass shootings in schools.

If what one is arguing about is school shootings, and the chance that one's children will be shot in school, then horrible and in need of change the overall murder rate might be, it's not the pertinent statistic.
 
Early in this thread, there was some discussion about why the Parkland shooting somehow "felt" different than the others. Why did this one finally ignite some genuine action. This time, there are marches and rallies. This time it wasn't "just another mass shooting". What made people act this time when they didn't after Sandy Hook or Las Vegas, or any of the many others.

One possibility is that it was just a "tipping point" phenomenon. We've just had so many shootings, again and again, that one more was all we could take, and it could have been any mass shooting that made people say, "Enough is enough." Another possibility, that I think did play a role, is that some of the survivors themselves stood up and started organizing. Those kids from that school gave the opposition a face. They weren't grieving parents. The grieving parents were just tagging along. They were young people who could say, "WTF? Some dude with a BFG just shot up my school!"

There's one other possibility, though. For perfectly understandable reasons, the police and authorities do not release victims' names or information until after families have been notified. This meant that in this case, the identities and photos didn't start showing up until the day after the murders. There was, however, one exception. The family of Jamie Guttenberg confirmed her death on the night of the 14th. That meant that for one news cycle, the victims at Parkland had one face, and it was the face of a very pretty, smiling, 14 year old girl.

For 12 hours, she was a tragedy instead of a statistic.
 
Last edited:
1987 - Hungerford Massacre, perpetrator used semi-auto guns
1988 - Firearms Amendment Act bans semi auto weapons

1996 - Dunblane Massacre, perpetrator used handguns
1997 - Firearms Amendment bans (most) handguns

2010 - Cumbria Massacre
2011 - no new legislation

Unless literally no one has any gun, there is always a chance of a massacre.


Fourty eight deaths in three decades? You Brits are such amateurs.
 
The Cumbria shooting was a rifle and a shotgun.

1989 - Monseaton mass shooting (1 dead, 14 injured) shotgun used
1990 - no change in legislation.

The precedent was already there, that shoguns were not to be made harder to get.

The point is, that UK helps to evidence that the gun type is the least important issue when trying to reduce gun crime and massacres.

Most important is to ensure the people with access to guns are suitable.
The next is security when the gun is not in possession of that suitable person.

I disagree, if a Semi-auto carbine with a high cap magazine and a NATO round had been available in Cumbria the death toll would have been far higher.
 
I disagree, if a Semi-auto carbine with a high cap magazine and a NATO round had been available in Cumbria the death toll would have been far higher.

Possibly, but more important to preventing/reducing the number of deaths is to make sure the likes of the Cumbria shooter cannot get a gun. That is achieved with background checks, referees reporting concerns and guns properly locked away when not in use.
 
Early in this thread, there was some discussion about why the Parkland shooting somehow "felt" different than the others. Why did this one finally ignite some genuine action. This time, there are marches and rallies. This time it wasn't "just another mass shooting". What made people act this time when they didn't after Sandy Hook or Las Vegas, or any of the many others.

One possibility is that it was just a "tipping point" phenomenon. We've just had so many shootings, again and again, that one more was all we could take, and it could have been any mass shooting that made people say, "Enough is enough." Another possibility, that I think did play a role, is that some of the survivors themselves stood up and started organizing. Those kids from that school gave the opposition a face. They weren't grieving parents. The grieving parents were just tagging along. They were young people who could say, "WTF? Some dude with a BFG just shot up my school!"

There's one other possibility, though. For perfectly understandable reasons, the police and authorities do not release victims' names or information until after families have been notified. This meant that in this case, the identities and photos didn't start showing up until the day after the murders. There was, however, one exception. The family of Jamie Guttenberg confirmed her death on the night of the 14th. That meant that for one news cycle, the victims at Parkland had one face, and it was the face of a very pretty, smiling, 14 year old girl.

For 12 hours, she was a tragedy instead of a statistic.

If Sandy Hook was not a tipping point, then nothing is going to be too shocking to create one.

Then, even if there is a tipping point, no one can agree what to do.

Then, how do you get an unknown number of weapons off an unknown number of people, many of whom are criminals or nutters who will fight the police when they arrive to take the guns away?

Is it possible even more people will die than the present rate of gun deaths, as the police fight civilians to get guns off those considered not suitable to have them?

Will anyone be able to persuade the police to go and do daily battle to get the guns?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top Bottom