Bitcoin - Part 2

[psionl0]

Ponzi schemes can take many years to build up (Bernie Madoff started his in the 1980's).

So what? Bitcoin is not a Ponzi scheme.

Bitcoin is still worth zero to me, because I wouldn't buy it at any price.

Who cares? You are not the market.

Printing fake money to pass off as real currency could be described as 'diabolical', especially if you were also responsible for wasting more electricity than is consumed by many European countries and caused the price of graphic cards to skyrocket. But it's early days yet - when this scheme finally unwinds I'm betting the damage will be far worse than most people expect.

Since bitcoin is not a "scheme" there is nothing to unwind. "Fake money" just an emotional term. Money is as money does.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/does-bitcoin-threaten-economic-stability-2017-08-31?

LOL so if an old opinion piece includes the word "Ponzi" it suddenly assumes the status of "Gospel" to you?

That same article doesn't support your thesis that bitcoin is "printing fake money to pass off as real currency"

It is difficult to argue that people should not be allowed to use a privately created asset to settle transactions without the involvement of the state.

 

[PartSkeptic]

psion10 versus Roger Ramjets.

Who is winning the persuasion argument?

I would like to hear from people who have moved one way or the other based on what they have read on this thread.

My vote - Solid Roger.

 

[psionl0]

My vote - Solid Roger.

Roger didn't "move" you either way. At best, his fallacious arguments are a source of confirmation bias for you.

 

[Samson]

psion10 versus Roger Ramjets.

Who is winning the persuasion argument?

I would like to hear from people who have moved one way or the other based on what they have read on this thread.

My vote - Solid Roger.

A truly fascinating aspect to this forum is that I have yet to see anyone change their opinion except Atheist in the Mark Lundy debacle.
Of course people stop posting, but not with declaring on their last post I was wrong, I was bloody well wrong.

I pledge to do so if bitcoin hits 20,000.
Will anyone join me and congratulate psion?

 

[Dr.Sid]

I'm asking again .. do you know somebody who lost money on BTC ? Because I think it's pretty darn hard ..

 

[psionl0]

I'm asking again .. do you know somebody who lost money on BTC ? Because I think it's pretty darn hard ..

It's actually quite easy to lose money on bitcoin. Simply buy into it when the price is booming then chicken out when the price nose dives.

Sure, if you wait long enough, the odds are favourable that you will recover your investment (it has happened every single time so far) and you might still possibly end up with a large profit.

Unfortunately, "odds are favourable" doesn't sound that great when you can see your savings evaporating away.

 

[kayle]

this time is different...

 

[phiwum]

Samson'This is a serious short squeeze that could end as high as 14,000. All traders see it, short and caught!'

'Capitulation. 10,000, 10,700 let us see. This market is due a catstrophic decline.'

Is it just me or do these posts make any sense?

Not just you. Samson reliably predicts bitcoin no matter how many tones he had to change the prediction. Sometimes, it turns out retroactively to have been a joke.

 

[psionl0]

this time is different...

It's always different - this time.

 

[PartSkeptic]

Roger didn't "move" you either way. At best, his fallacious arguments are a source of confirmation bias for you.

He moved me further into opposition.

Fixed your last sentence for you.

 

[PartSkeptic]

I'm asking again .. do you know somebody who lost money on BTC ? Because I think it's pretty darn hard ..

Yes and no. I know people who bought in October/November and made a profit. They then took out the initial investment and bought more with the "profit". The current price is below below what they paid. At least, that is what they say.

Our local newspaper is reporting that some people have lost their house and their possessions and cannot service the debt they took to buy just before the December peak.

 

[psionl0]

Our local newspaper is reporting that some people have lost their house and their possessions and cannot service the debt they took to buy just before the December peak.

If you can't afford to do without the money you spent on bitcoin for a long time then you risk being seriously burned.

Those who bought bitcoin on Nov 29 2013 when the price peaked at $1,163 had to wait until Feb 20 2017 (well over 3 years) before they could get their money back. If they held their BTC beyond that date they could have seen the spectacular gains that they dreamed of. Of course, it would be understandable if these people thought that their dream had turned into a nightmare.

 

[Eddie Dane]

psion10 versus Roger Ramjets.

Who is winning the persuasion argument?

I would like to hear from people who have moved one way or the other based on what they have read on this thread.

My vote - Solid Roger.

I was sceptical in 2015 and thus missed out on turning a thousand bucks into a couple of million.
I followed this thread and became slightly more sceptical, stopping me from investing at 17.000 and saving me the ride down.
This thread and some other sources have convinced me that this is just a bubble and best understood in terms of mass psychology and not in terms of a revolutionary new tech.

But I'm also starting suspect that this will have a much longer ride than most here predict. A series of bubbles.

It's not just going to zero. It will go down to the level where the anarchists and libertarians give it support. Then the hopeful masses will see the support and think 'the prophesies were right' and invest and it goes up until some smart cookies take profit and it goes down to Libertarian-support-level again.
Plus a small number of people have so much Bitcoin that they can easily manipulate the whole market and perpetuate this cycle for a while.

I've also stopped parroting the wisdom that 'Bitcoin may not be it, but Blockchain is the future. As Ramjet pointed out (as did Buffet and Roubini), in ten years it has done nothing disruptive except burn a lot of coal and make my new video editing computer hideously expensive.

 

[Craig B]

It's always different - this time.

You are saying something else too: that it will never be different; that anyone who buys at any price and is able to hold on to BTC for a reasonable period will always, at any time in the future, as at all times in the past, and regardless of date and level of purchase price, will be able to come out ahead.

That's the bit I deny, although as you must have perceived by now, I regard specific predictions about price and date points as in principle impossible.

As things stand, Bitcoin is still down about 40% from its December end of mania peak.

 

[Samson]

I was sceptical in 2015 and thus missed out on turning a thousand bucks into a couple of million.
I followed this thread and became slightly more sceptical, stopping me from investing at 17.000 and saving me the ride down.
This thread and some other sources have convinced me that this is just a bubble and best understood in terms of mass psychology and not in terms of a revolutionary new tech.

But I'm also starting suspect that this will have a much longer ride than most here predict. A series of bubbles.

It's not just going to zero. It will go down to the level where the anarchists and libertarians give it support. Then the hopeful masses will see the support and think 'the prophesies were right' and invest and it goes up until some smart cookies take profit and it goes down to Libertarian-support-level again.
Plus a small number of people have so much Bitcoin that they can easily manipulate the whole market and perpetuate this cycle for a while.

I've also stopped parroting the wisdom that 'Bitcoin may not be it, but Blockchain is the future. As Ramjet pointed out (as did Buffet and Roubini), in ten years it has done nothing disruptive except burn a lot of coal and make my new video editing computer hideously expensive.

Good analysis Eddie.
I am feeling beaten by this thing, and only watched since november.

 

[Eddie Dane]

Good analysis Eddie.
I am feeling beaten by this thing, and only watched since november.

I'm no expert at anything, but my impression is that you've been trying to make sense of this thing through an analytical lens, using tools that would work for commodities or stocks.

I think all bets are off and there is not much logic to be found.

Although (following my theory above) we could assume that the "libertarian floor" is about $6000 and it will usually go up from there.

And I think we may be able to determine where the players take profit ($15000?)

But like everybody, I'm just guessing. And I have no money riding on this thing. It's interesting to watch though.

 

[rayheno]

You are saying something else too: that it will never be different; that anyone who buys at any price and is able to hold on to BTC for a reasonable period will always, at any time in the future, as at all times in the past, and regardless of date and level of purchase price, will be able to come out ahead.

That's the bit I deny, although as you must have perceived by now, I regard specific predictions about price and date points as in principle impossible.

As things stand, Bitcoin is still down about 40% from its December end of mania peak.

True, but also it's up about 30% since you declared 'bitcoin has no legs'. If it has no legs then it crawls at Olympic standard.

 

[PartSkeptic]

I was sceptical in 2015 and thus missed out on turning a thousand bucks into a couple of million.
I followed this thread and became slightly more sceptical, stopping me from investing at 17.000 and saving me the ride down.
This thread and some other sources have convinced me that this is just a bubble and best understood in terms of mass psychology and not in terms of a revolutionary new tech.

But I'm also starting suspect that this will have a much longer ride than most here predict. A series of bubbles.

It's not just going to zero. It will go down to the level where the anarchists and libertarians give it support. Then the hopeful masses will see the support and think 'the prophesies were right' and invest and it goes up until some smart cookies take profit and it goes down to Libertarian-support-level again.
Plus a small number of people have so much Bitcoin that they can easily manipulate the whole market and perpetuate this cycle for a while.

I've also stopped parroting the wisdom that 'Bitcoin may not be it, but Blockchain is the future. As Ramjet pointed out (as did Buffet and Roubini), in ten years it has done nothing disruptive except burn a lot of coal and make my new video editing computer hideously expensive.

Some good points.

 

[Samson]

I'm no expert at anything, but my impression is that you've been trying to make sense of this thing through an analytical lens, using tools that would work for commodities or stocks.

I think all bets are off and there is not much logic to be found.

Although (following my theory above) we could assume that the "libertarian floor" is about $6000 and it will usually go up from there.

And I think we may be able to determine where the players take profit ($15000?)

But like everybody, I'm just guessing. And I have no money riding on this thing. It's interesting to watch though.

The tools I use in currencies stock indices and commodities work just fine on bitcoin. But all of above have undisputed real world utility, not so bitcoin.
There was an iteration of a very simple algorithm I run on everything but two flies climbing a wall that said buy at 10655, I could have posted at the time, but was not watching.
I contend this thing stops at 14000 odd and turns down, this would look fine on the charts if it were apple etc.

 

[psionl0]

You are saying something else too: that it will never be different; that anyone who buys at any price and is able to hold on to BTC for a reasonable period will always, at any time in the future, as at all times in the past, and regardless of date and level of purchase price, will be able to come out ahead.

That is a strawman argument and you know it.

I challenge you to find any post of mine where I have said anything like that.