Proof of Immortality, VII

Status
Not open for further replies.
Jabba said:
- I mean, given only that time began 14 billion years ago, how probable is it that the present time or moment would be between 1942 and 2042 Gregorian time.
Click to expand...

Given that the present moment is, in fact, between 1942 and 2042, my guess is that it's extremely probable. One might even say certain.
 
Jabba said:
Dave,

- Given OOFLam, you're certainly correct.

- But forget the actual question for the moment, and just consider the lottery question.
- We have a lottery barrel of 100 tickets, one of those being yours. And your ticket was drawn. What is the likelihood of your ticket being drawn if this was a fair lottery?
- What if we have a computer containing a million numbered entrants, and the one entrant selected was you? What if we have a computer with 140,000,000 entrants?
Click to expand...

What does that have to do with contingent history of someone's two parents meeting and having a child?
 
Jabba said:
js,
- Good question.
- But, I think that you're really asking about the posterior probability of the coin being fair -- given 5 straight head-tosses. And, the answer to that question requires an estimate of the prior probability that the coin is fair.
- I've never seen a two headed coin, so unless there was money riding on this, I'd suggest a prior probability of 99.99% that the coin was fair and the posterior probability that the coin was fair would be (.5*.5*.5*.5*.5)*.9999/((.5*.5*.5*.5*.5)*.9999 +1*1*1*1*1*.0001), or
0.031246875/(0.031246875+.0001)=0.031246875/0.031346875, or approximately 99.7% (by my calculations).
Click to expand...

OMFSM, may the marinara save us!
Did you even look for an answer before you made one up?

99% !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
Jabba said:
- Anyway, I'm trying to propose an analogous question concerning time. My claim is that the likelihood of now being between 1942 and 2042 -- given that time (somehow) began 14 billion years ago, is at most 1/140,000,000, and extremely small whatever.
- Do you think that that claim makes any sense?
Click to expand...

Nope it is another absurd claim based upon your idiomatic thinking, unrelated to any known version of reality
 
Oh, and Jabba, point 16 of your latest fringe reset: this is wrong. As you are well aware, in the materialist model there is no such thing as a specific self awareness. It is a process the brain does, not a thing that exists separately from the brain. In the other models, there is a thing called a soul that could get reincarnated. So when you are talking about the materialist model, the thing you are trying to disprove, you are indeed talking about your body. It is all that is required to explain your current existence. In the other models, your body exists and you’ve added another unlikely thing to it, a soul.

You know all this, and you have agreed to all of this, but you continue to refuse to change your wording to reflect it. Indeed just in the last week you insisted that Godless Dave had to tell you what the likelihood of his body existing was.

Any neutral jury will surely recognize this.
 
To put it another way, in 1942 the likelihood of "now" being 1942 was 1. In 5000 BC the likelihood of "now" being 5000 BC was 1. In 250,386 AD the likelihood of "now" being 250,386 AD will be 1.
 
Jabba:
- given the materialist model, what is the likelihood that your body would self identify as Jabba?
- give the the materialist model, what is the likelihood that your body would self identify as Napoleon?
- given a different model in which you have a soul, what is the likelihood that your body would self identify as as Jabba?
- given a different model in which you have a soul, what is the likelihood that your body would self identify as Napoleon?
 
Jabba said:
- I mean, given only that time began 14 billion years ago, how probable is it that the present time or moment would be between 1942 and 2042 Gregorian time.
Click to expand...


It's 100% certain that, between 1942 and 2042, now is between 1942 and 2042.

And it's also absolutely certain that whenever you exist, that is, as far as you are concerned, now.
 
Last edited:
Back to immortality....

Jabba, what is the likelihood that you will be alive in the year 2119? Maybe another way to think about it is, what is the probability that you will be alive in 2119 versus the probability that you will not?
 
Mojo said:
Oh, and Jabba, what makes you think that the century between 1942 and 2042 is special?
Click to expand...

That's his own lifetime, assuming he lives to age 100. It was chosen to be his lifetime because it contains all the times Jabba could conceivably talk about as being "present time" or "now" from his perspective. What a remarkable coincidence that such a seemingly random variable as "now" should land in such a narrow slice of time! In the same way that the circle on the barn was selected because it contained the bullet hole, and what a remarkable coincidence it landed there instead of any of the large number of places on a typical barn wall that a bullet could land.
 
JayUtah said:
That's his own lifetime, assuming he lives to age 100. It was chosen to be his lifetime because it contains all the times Jabba could conceivably talk about as being "present time" or "now" from his perspective. What a remarkable coincidence that such a seemingly random variable as "now" should land in such a narrow slice of time! In the same way that the circle on the barn was selected because it contained the bullet hole, and what a remarkable coincidence it landed there instead of any of the large number of places on a typical barn wall that a bullet could land.
Click to expand...


Damnit you gave the game away. Assuming Jabba notices...
 
carlitos said:
No, it's not. Thanks for reminding me why I wasn't participating here for some time.
Click to expand...

I clicked on that link. It seems to me it would be easier for him to simply mirror the ISF site, or even provide a link. He has just copied and pasted this thread over there, but has taken out the poster names so that someone unfamiliar with this thread would not be able to follow the conversation. I can't imagine what an "unbiased juror" would think trying to read through that.
 
Monza said:
Back to immortality....

Jabba, what is the likelihood that you will be alive in the year 2119? Maybe another way to think about it is, what is the probability that you will be alive in 2119 versus the probability that you will not?
Click to expand...
- In Bayesian statistics, probability and likelihood are not the same. From https://www.psychologicalscience.org/observer/bayes-for-beginners-probability-and-likelihood:
The distinction between probability and likelihood is fundamentally important: Probability attaches to possible results; likelihood attaches to hypotheses.

- Here, you're asking about the probability that my body will be alive in 2019, based upon what I know about my health -- you're asking for my estimate (hypothesis) of the "prior probability." From what I currently know, the prior probability that my body will be alive in 2019 is about 90%. Which means that the prior probability that my body will not be alive is about 10%.
- If I learn tomorrow that I have a dangerous heart condition, my hypothesis about 90% will suffer, and we could ask about the U]likelihood[/U] that my hypothesis was correct. Though, we wouldn't get very far...
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top Bottom