Bitcoin - Part 2

[PartSkeptic]

i might have misremembered but did one of our resident experts say no way it would ever reach $10000 again? its 10,200 at the moment

I was one. I was wrong. This bubble is definitely in a class of it's own. Instead of plunging like it should, it keeps trying to rally. I think there is much manipulation of the price apart from the ongoing hype.

Typically $10,000 should be an emotional limit, but not in this case. Perhaps all those that bought so low are buying to push the price up.

Because I was wrong about a bounce, it does not mean that I (and a bunch of others) are wrong about the ultimate fate.

 

[psionl0]

If anyone said that the price would never reach $10K again, they are clearly wrong. But who did?

You saw the post I responded to. It didn't say "never" but what it said was still incorrect.

I'm not sure if anybody said "never" to $10K but a number of posters did say "never" to $20K. If BTC tops this price then I may name and shame them.

Do you think that bitcoin is a good long-term investment? What might convince you otherwise? Have you a time constrained prediction to make, so that we can test your hypothesis?

I'm not making any predictions. I am just pointing out the stupidity of people making the same "end of bitcoin" predictions over and over and over and over and over and over and .....

They never learn.

I confess I have no such prediction one way or the other. I have a feeling that at this point, bitcoin is likely to go down in the long run, but more to the point that it is a roulette wheel from my perspective. I just don't understand why one would invest in it, since it's unclear where the value lies. I'll put my money in something I understand.

You don't have to understand bitcoin (other than how to get into and out of an exchange with minimum risk exposure). Just look at the charts and decide if the 8 year old patterns have a reasonable prospect of continuing. If so, bet what you can afford.

And stop listening to the self-styled "experts" in this thread.

 

[psionl0]

Sure I can. It's like the difference between having a banking account and carrying cash - except that Bitcoin exchanges are a lot less secure.

How to Store Your Bitcoin

Err... a bitcoin exchange is not a bank and you don't carry bitcoins around. Your wallet information is stored in the blockchain so all you need is your private key to access it and no third party need be involved - EVER.

I explained this in the post you quoted. Why didn't you read it?

That's the kind of thinking that lead to the 2008 financial crisis. 'Insurable risk' is just another name for 'making others pay for my misfortune'.

Terrific. Now it turns out that you don't know anything about insurance.

(HINT: It is not about selling bad debts to unsuspecting partners nor expecting tax payers to bail you out when you get into trouble).

Not me, but many Bitcoiners yearn for a world where fiat currency is dead.

Another made-up "fact". I could just as easily say that many crypto enthusiasts want to be able to make the choice between crypto or fiat at will.

That's silly, especially since I didn't say that Bitcoin won't ever achieve price stability. If it hits zero - as some predict - then the price will be perfectly stable.

What a stupid way to back out of a claim.

 

[Samson]

I was one. I was wrong. This bubble is definitely in a class of it's own. Instead of plunging like it should, it keeps trying to rally. I think there is much manipulation of the price apart from the ongoing hype.

Typically $10,000 should be an emotional limit, but not in this case. Perhaps all those that bought so low are buying to push the price up.

Because I was wrong about a bounce, it does not mean that I (and a bunch of others) are wrong about the ultimate fate.

Round numbers have no psychological import. This is obvious when considering related markets have their own round numbers.
However there is sound reason to expect the 10,000 region to turn bitcoin for technical reasons, it is a level where people bought for the bounce, then it failed. I expect at least 7500 from here.

 

[rayheno]

You missed some.
I predicted it would never hit 20k. I predicted it would never see 10k agin. So far unproven either way, neither price has yet been seen. Predicting 8k when the futures began is right exceot for the time. The 500 prediction by january would be taken seriously only by fools. And there are more.
The decent rally failure was called when it failed, and the current sell with futures would be showing a 50% return on maintenance margin.

Overall there is a far better than random walk story there, but no proof will be sufficient because as I found on the TA thread there is a yearning to not believe in TA. Even mod Fischer suggested I was using a tipping service when
predictions were accurate without explaining what methodology that service might be using. He was wrong of course.

When I get round to it I will do a full list, for my own research, so no need to say don't bother.

Another failed prediction?

 

[Craig B]

10700 should stop this run. I would sell here, 10,000 and again 10,700.

Now at about 9780. For all its remarkable resilience, Bitcoin has now stood for weeks at around or below half the level of its all time manic peak. That's not hugely impressive.

How long the do or die libertarians will continue throwing fiat money at it I don't know, but I really would be surprised if there was a renewal of bubble mania taking its value vastly higher that the 20,000 of later December.

 

[psionl0]

... I really would be surprised if there was a renewal of bubble mania taking its value vastly higher that the 20,000 of later December.

What "bubble mania"?

This is just the same ups and downs that have been happening year after year after year after year. Nothing to see here folks.

 

[rayheno]

Now at about 9780. For all its remarkable resilience, Bitcoin has now stood for weeks at around or below half the level of its all time manic peak. That's not hugely impressive.

How long the do or die libertarians will continue throwing fiat money at it I don't know, but I really would be surprised if there was a renewal of bubble mania taking its value vastly higher that the 20,000 of later December.

And thats basically what Psion has been saying all along, no one really knows, and definite prediction are a fools game

 

[Craig B]

And thats basically what Psion has been saying all along, no one really knows, and definite prediction are a fools game

Can you not read the post immediately above yours? what Psion has been saying is

What "bubble mania"?

This is just the same ups and downs that have been happening year after year after year after year. Nothing to see here folks.

So if you really want to discuss what Psion has been saying, why not address his very words?

There has been no bubble. Everything has always been the same. Nothing to see here.

Do you agree with these observations?

 

[psionl0]

So if you really want to discuss what Psion has been saying, why not address his very words?

Actually Ray has addressed everything I ever said. It is you that says that this time everything will be different.

This is exactly like everybody who went before you said and like everybody who went before you, you offer not one iota of proof that this time. the end is for real.

There has been no bubble.

Quite the contrary. There has been bubbles every time. There will be bubbles in the future - just like it has always been.

 

[Craig B]

Actually Ray has addressed everything I ever said. It is you that says that this time everything will be different.

This is exactly like everybody who went before you said and like everybody who went before you, you offer not one iota of proof that this time. the end is for real.


Quite the contrary. There has been bubbles every time. There will be bubbles in the future - just like it has always been.

So when you wrote "What bubble mania?" You meant that there had been and always will be bubbles, but there never has been and will never be a mania. Fine. But why didn't you make your meaning more clear, by writing "Bubbles, always; manias never"?

 

[PartSkeptic]

(snip)

Quite the contrary. There has been bubbles every time. There will be bubbles in the future - just like it has always been.

Here is a company that its name from Bioptix to Riot Blockchain. It's stock climbed in December and then dropped like Bitcoin. The TV show Squawkbox had a talk and the "experts" said that the people and the company were "iffy". Here is an excerpt from their SEC filing.

https://ir.riotblockchain.com/all-sec-filings/content/0001079973-17-000667/0001079973-17-000667.pdf

Furthermore, such prices may be subject to factors such as those that impact commodities, more so than business activities, which could be subjected to additional influence from fraudulent or illegitimate actors, real or perceived scarcity, and political, economic, regulatory or other conditions. Pricing may be the result of, and may continue to result in, speculation regarding future appreciation in the value of cryptocurrencies, or the Company or its share price, inflating and making their market prices more volatile or creating “bubble” type risks.

At least they are honest about the bubble aspect.

They go on:

Such risks are similar to the risks of purchasing commodities in general uncertain times, such as the risk of purchasing, holding or selling gold.

As an alternative to gold or fiat currencies that are backed by central governments, cryptocurrencies, which are relatively new, are subject to supply and demand forces. How such supply and demand will be impacted by geopolitical events is uncertain but could be harmful to the Company and investors in the Company’s securities. Nevertheless, political or economic crises may motivate large-scale acquisitions or sales of cryptocurrencies either globally or locally. Such events would have a material adverse effect on the ability of the Company to continue as a going concern or to pursue this segment at all, which would have a material adverse effect on the
business, prospects or operations of the Company and potentially the value of any cryptocurrencies the Company holds or expects to acquire for its own account.

Equivalent to gold? Nonsense.

 

[PartSkeptic]

(snip)

Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
That's silly, especially since I didn't say that Bitcoin won't ever achieve price stability. If it hits zero - as some predict - then the price will be perfectly stable

.
What a stupid way to back out of a claim.

I am with "stupid". I must be double "stupid" think his reply was right on the money errr... crypto.

BTW. Abandoned at the price of a few dollars is equivalent to "ZERO".

 

[PartSkeptic]

My previous quote was linked to the SEC filing Risk Factors. Here is the Heading.

https://ir.riotblockchain.com/all-sec-filings/content/0001079973-17-000667/0001079973-17-000667.pdf

RISK FACTORS
An investment in the Company’s common stock involves a high degree of risk. In determining whether to purchase the Company’s common stock, an investor should carefully consider all of the material risks described below, together with the other information contained in this report and the Company’s other public filings before making a decision to purchase the
Company’s securities. An investor should only purchase the Company’s securities if he or she can afford to suffer the loss of his or her entire investment.

Reading the risk factors appears to me like asking a man about to climb into a pit full of poisonous snakes and asking him to consider the risks.

 

[PartSkeptic]

Totally appropriate for two reasons. One is the direction (we say down), and the other is Psion10's avatar.


http://dilbert.com/strip/2018-02-16

 

[psionl0]

So when you wrote "What bubble mania?" You meant that there had been and always will be bubbles, but there never has been and will never be a mania. Fine. But why didn't you make your meaning more clear, by writing "Bubbles, always; manias never"?

What do you think "ups and downs" means? Have I ever said that bitcoin is not volatile?

 

[psionl0]

Here is a company that its name from Bioptix to Riot Blockchain. It's stock climbed in December and then dropped like Bitcoin. The TV show Squawkbox had a talk and the "experts" said that the people and the company were "iffy". Here is an excerpt from their SEC filing.

As usual, you find a one-off speculative boom and immediately say "bitcoin".

I am with "stupid".

Say no more.

 

[Craig B]

What do you think "ups and downs" means? Have I ever said that bitcoin is not volatile?

Either you're saying that or you're saying it's not manic. Which?

In fact of course you're simply playing with words, so that your statements will always seem to be correct.

 

[psionl0]

Either you're saying that or you're saying it's not manic. Which?

In fact of course you're simply playing with words, so that your statements will always seem to be correct.

You switch from the word "bubble" to the word "mania" and then accuse me of playing with words?

You clearly intended to link the latest bubble with "tulip mania" again. That trick doesn't work with me.

 

[Craig B]

You switch from the word "bubble" to the word "mania" and then accuse me of playing with words?

You clearly intended to link the latest bubble with "tulip mania" again. That trick doesn't work with me.

oh, I see what your problem is now. The tulip mania bubble was a bit less extreme than the crypto bubble. You're terrified of people making these connections. South Sea, Railway Mania. Florida real estate.

Even humble tulips scare you out of your wits.