Bitcoin - Part 2

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Will it pay off my 2X more expensive* super-happening Graphic Card or not?






*now that all the 2bit-miners are buying up all GPU's they can get the hands on.
 
Belz... said:
You're missing the point. Psion was talking about predictions ABOUT BITCOIN, not about the sun. :rolleyes:
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As sure as the sun sets in the West, Bitcoin is dropping.

The latest bounce is over, and down she goes again. Just like a setting sun.

Slow but sure, until it disappears. Unlike the sun, it will not rise another day.
 
psionl0 said:
As sure as you don't know what number will come up next when you roll the dice, you have no idea what the price of bitcoin will be tomorrow.
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That's absolutely right, but there's an overall pattern of downward progress. From just below twenty thousand to just below eight thousand. Don't you think that's significant? Do you think it will be followed by further decline, or by huge increases like the ones recorded in early December during the last paroxysm of the mania?

Personally I think further decline is more probable, but I may be wrong. Though I don't think it is possible to predict specific days future values. I've explained why. Suppose TA predicts that the value will be $7,400 in a soecific week, and I believe that prediction. Then I might sell at $7,500 the previous week, which I wouldn't have done absent the prediction. Thus these predictions, even if mathematically sound, disconfirm themselves in practice, and the figures become unpredictable yet again.
 
Craig B said:
That's absolutely right, but there's an overall pattern of downward progress. From just below twenty thousand to just below eight thousand. Don't you think that's significant? Do you think it will be followed by further decline, or by huge increases like the ones recorded in early December during the last paroxysm of the mania?

Personally I think further decline is more probable, but I may be wrong. Though I don't think it is possible to predict specific days future values. I've explained why. Suppose TA predicts that the value will be $7,400 in a soecific week, and I believe that prediction. Then I might sell at $7,500 the previous week, which I wouldn't have done absent the prediction. Thus these predictions, even if mathematically sound, disconfirm themselves in practice, and the figures become unpredictable yet again.
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Obviously I was guessing at 7400, mainly because anything but total specificity gets one of the wise guys around here suggesting I will be right next century and claim victory.
TA is best seen as a tool to call direction with an affordable stop loss, which I have tried to do here.
 
Samson said:
Huh? I've told you what the price will be tomorrow.:mad:
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But if you compare bitcoin to a dice then what you are saying is a sheer guess.

OTOH if you compare bitcoin to the sun in the sky then you know almost to a certainty exactly when the price will rise and when it will set (fall).

Have I got this method of uncritical thinking wrong?
 
Samson said:
Obviously I was guessing at 7400, mainly because anything but total specificity gets one of the wise guys around here suggesting I will be right next century and claim victory.
TA is best seen as a tool to call direction with an affordable stop loss, which I have tried to do here.
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Yes, direction with stop loss - if any - might be a rational prediction.
 
psionl0 said:
As sure as you don't know what number will come up next when you roll the dice, you have no idea what the price of bitcoin will be tomorrow.
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No one knows otherwise they would be rich. And it would be proof of the supernatural.

But I can say with a 90% certainty that in a years time the price and the coin will in the dustbin of history and never recover. That would constitute a speculative bet.
 
PartSkeptic said:
???:confused: :confused:
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You're the one who used the "sun sets in the west" analogy (post #2023).

Of course, you could have also compared bitcoin to unicorns and concluded that bitcoin doesn't exist.

Or you could have compared bitcoin to an asylum and concluded that only crazy people speculate in bitcoin.

Or you could have compared bitcoin to a high powered explosive and concluded that bitcoin is set to blow up the financial sector.

Or you could have ....

(See also post #2028).
 
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Samson said:
Obviously I was guessing at 7400, mainly because anything but total specificity gets one of the wise guys around here suggesting I will be right next century and claim victory.

TA is best seen as a tool to call direction with an affordable stop loss, which I have tried to do here.
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Ok. That would be helpful if you are working from a known position. But even then, let’s take me as an example. bitcoin at $15. At how many points would TA have told me to sell before I actually did sell? I’m sure there would have been all kinds of buy/sell signals in the years leading up to Dec2017.

IOW, you need to know a few things before the advice can make sense: 1) what price was the asset purchased at? 2)How risk tolerant is the investor? 3) What fees are involved in trading the asset? Your arbitrary stop-loss of 7400 may not make sense for a guy like me who bought at 15. Maybe if I bought at 15000, but then again I’d probably already have a stop-loss point in mind. Plus, If I’m following TA advice without emotion -selling and buying with the signals- the transaction fees are going to eat up the small profits I’m booking.

I need to see it in actual practice in order to buy it.
 
PartSkeptic said:
No one knows otherwise they would be rich. And it would be proof of the supernatural.



But I can say with a 90% certainty that in a years time the price and the coin will in the dustbin of history and never recover. That would constitute a speculative bet.
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I’ll bet you that in one year, bitcoin will still be around.
 
xjx388 said:
Ok. That would be helpful if you are working from a known position. But even then, let’s take me as an example. bitcoin at $15. At how many points would TA have told me to sell before I actually did sell? I’m sure there would have been all kinds of buy/sell signals in the years leading up to Dec2017.

IOW, you need to know a few things before the advice can make sense: 1) what price was the asset purchased at? 2)How risk tolerant is the investor? 3) What fees are involved in trading the asset? Your arbitrary stop-loss of 7400 may not make sense for a guy like me who bought at 15. Maybe if I bought at 15000, but then again I’d probably already have a stop-loss point in mind. Plus, If I’m following TA advice without emotion -selling and buying with the signals- the transaction fees are going to eat up the small profits I’m booking.

I need to see it in actual practice in order to buy it.
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The idea is to be naked short as in futures. I will post a full analysis with piuctures when I get time of what I am talking about.
Meanwhile the great plunge is underway. Expect that 7400 on schedule and a lot lower this week.
 
Samson said:
The idea is to be naked short as in futures. I will post a full analysis with piuctures when I get time of what I am talking about.

Meanwhile the great plunge is underway. Expect that 7400 on schedule and a lot lower this week.
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It hasn’t hit 7400, it hasn’t even moved in a downward direction and you definitely can’t say “the great plunge” is underway.

I get the idea of a “naked short”. If someone had done a naked short with the idea of a 2-day decline, they would be a little disappointed right now. Little to no profit and the fees would take even that.
 
xjx388 said:
If someone had done a naked short with the idea of a 2-day decline, they would be a little disappointed right now. Little to no profit and the fees would take even that.
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Be patient. It hasn't been 2 days yet.

If you do a naked short as a gentleman's agreement then there doesn't need to be any fees involved. You give Samson the price of a bitcoin today and Samson gives you the price of a bitcoin 2 days later.
 
psionl0 said:
Be patient. It hasn't been 2 days yet.

If you do a naked short as a gentleman's agreement then there doesn't need to be any fees involved. You give Samson the price of a bitcoin today and Samson gives you the price of a bitcoin 2 days later.
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Very good mediation.
I am short 8430, last 8368.
48 hours after original post is the price.

eta 11 hours 50 to run.
 
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