PartSkeptic
Illuminator
More Roubini... and more unpleasant revelations...
The full article is worth reading.
The full article is worth reading.
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PartSkeptic
Illuminator
More about the scheme propping up bitcoin. Seems one has to buy Tether to buy Bitcoin at Bitfinex. Uh oh. No wonder Psion10 is negative about it.
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psionl0
Skeptical about skeptics
Ah, so this is a guy on the internet.You asked. I answered. Not good news I am afraid.
Over the years I have seen many financial "experts" attempt to dismiss bitcoin like this. They don't know what to make of this new fangled medium so they cast fortunes like a carnival gypsy in an attempt to appear knowledgeable.
Needless to say, bitcoin has made every bit of a jackass out of them as it has the nay sayers on this forum.
Weve got a deal on this jackass issue, and you're not keeping up your end of the bargain, with posts like that. Remember I've got these ears and tail waiting and ready for you, when you qualify for them.
Meanwhile I don't. Bitcoin has fallen by half amid a welter of scam stories. So far ... well, smell these tulips!
psionl0
Skeptical about skeptics
What does that prove? An expert is just somebody who gets paid to call himself an expert. It doesn't change the fact that economic forecasts are a pure black art. People are making predictions all the time. It is always possible after the event to find somebody who called it. Without a detailed analysis of his track record it is meaningless.
Just look at the crap he has been saying about bitcoin and blockchain in general. It is worse than what the worst idiots have been saying in this thread. It is just pure ignorance.
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psionl0
Skeptical about skeptics
Again?
Uh? A little while ago you were calling him "a guy on the internet". Now he's a self-professed expert who happens to be a professor in his subject?
"Roubini is one of few economists who predicted the housing bubble crash [among other things] of 2007-2008. He warned about the crisis in an IMF position paper in 2006".
Here he's calling 'bitcoin down to zero' well in advance, so we shall see.
psionl0
Skeptical about skeptics
Such as?
PartSkeptic
Illuminator
The 2008 crash was forecast by a few experts in economics.
One site I saw kept saying it would happen in the next few months. After four years of saying that and being wrong they gave up saying that they could not understand why the market was not behaving according to fundamentals. The market then crashed and all the reasons they had been giving were validated.
The greed and herd behavior of people can be hard to analyze. But eventually the fundamentals kick in. Fundamentally bitcoin is a techofad. It will end sometime.
You could have searched and found out quicker than posting that question.
psionl0
Skeptical about skeptics
The highlighted part is incorrect. The 2008 crash happened for a reason that few were aware of: Toxic Debt. Freed of all of the inconvenient Glass-Steagall regulations, the banks went berserk with property loans. Many of them were NINJA loans - loans made to people who had no prospect of repaying them. They then packaged the loans and onsold them - spreading the risk.
Essentially, what the banks were selling had no more backing than a bitcoin.
psionl0
Skeptical about skeptics
I didn't think that you could give any other examples.
I have no interest in researching somebody who's only reason for trying to predict the future is an appeal to (his own) authority.
PartSkeptic
Illuminator
Oh please. They listed the reasons. It was obvious to a few that the euphoria and self-delusion could not continue. That is what is meant by fundamentals.
Closer to the time there were some TV guys who said there was going to be a crash. Richard Quest was one whose warnings I remember. That advanced his career. I am not sure if Max Keiser was another. But the TV guys just gave general warnings. The site I mentioned was specific as to the reasons.
That said, I agree that the banksters were complicit in what was essentially a fraudulent scheme. While the securities were "mortgage backed" the value of the properties were way below what the "security" was being sold for, and re-sold and re-sold at ever increasing multiples. The regulators were asleep at the wheel (read - complicit).
Bitcoin is an understandable reaction to those excesses, but has NO underlying assets/value whatsoever.
psionl0
Skeptical about skeptics
That is far less profound than you think it is. Anybody can tell you that if the market is overheated (whether it be a bitcoin market or stock market or any other market) then a correction is on the way. It is no more remarkable than saying that if you dive into water then you will get wet.
These "experts" may have listed "reasons" for why they thought a correction was on the way but doesn't mean that the "reasons" were the cause of the correction. You can be sure that nobody was saying "NINJA loans" before the 2008 crisis.
Markets go up for a while then down for a while.
How long is a while?
What happens at the word then?
These are the mysteries to unlock, and the answeres turn out to be straightforward and are delivered by the price history.
With Bitcoin there is no longer a technical picture at the large scale to rely on. The hoax may continue with an uptrend here, I will say if I see it, as I have done several times each way on the thread. But ultimately about Zero looks fair value on a fundamental read.
Roger Ramjets
Philosopher
Wrong! The banks were selling securities backed by mortgages on homes that people were living in, real assets with a fundamental utility that is independent of their current market 'value'. In contrast, bitcoin's only real fundamental is a loose community of irrational libertarians, criminals, and greedy investors - all of whom see it as a way to avoid meeting their social responsibilities.
When the housing bubble burst property values dropped by an average of 30%. It held there not due to the collective delusions of investors, but because people actually need houses to live in. Nobody needs Bitcoin. If it disappeared tomorrow we wouldn't care - and in fact it already has effectively disappeared as a currency. Even criminals are abandoning it, and the price is now propped up purely by speculation.
"Fukushima? Anyone can tell you that when the water level rises (whether it's a tsunami or the tide or any other wave) it will go down again. It's no more remarkable than saying that if you dive into water you will get wet."
The Guardian - Sun 30 Sep 2007: Why Ninja mortgages could wreak havoc
Sort of. In reality those securities were leveraged so much that the underlying value of the properties was totally dwarfed, rendering trivial in relation to the risk. Otherwise no crisis, just minor damage.
The holders of these bubble securities took heavy damage, but the owners of houses were less severely hit. Houses still had substantial values based on their high utility; but unless cryptos are being bought, like postal orders, to facilitate cash transfers, or are of use in some other way, then they have no value at all.
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