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Bitcoin - Part 2

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I count amongst my friends Libertarians and Anarchists, and they love Bitcoin.

Although I'm fine with people putting money in ideas they support, I hate them betting the house.

The Libertarian guy is a Crypto millionaire now, but believes it will logically become the new gold with a value of over $100.000. I tried to talk him into taking (some) profit, but no dice.
He got in very early, so he will not lose much if it crashes, and he lives a modest lifestyle. But He could use some of that cash to pay off his mortgage.
 
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Craig B: Another commenter posted the video


Dire Straits : Money for Nothing

That ain't workin' that's the way you do it
Money for nothin' and chicks for free
Now that ain't workin' that's the way you do it
Lemme tell ya them guys ain't dumb
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Money for nothing - that is for sure.
 
Heading towards the lowest close since early december. This is a bit of a surprise considering the dead cat bounce and yesterdays close of 12731.
Lowest close 11030
Currently 11298
 
These are the stories that will contribute to the fall of cryptocurrencies. Two days ago local South African newspaper.


https://www.iol.co.za/capeargus/news/cryptocurrency-buyers-opt-for-debt-review-12803716

“We interviewed our first cryptocurrency victims towards the end of last year who wanted to go under debt review because they were no longer able to adequately service their debt. To my amazement, many of them had been the victims of scams involving cryptocurrencies which promised massive returns.

"Some of them had gone as far as pawning their vehicles, taking out second bonds on their homes and borrowing money on credit cards in order to buy cryptocurrencies,” he said.

Roets said some of the scams involved accounts being hacked by offshore hackers who stole every last penny or by sellers who never actually delivered the digital currency after they had been paid. While in most cases, however, it was simply the vast losses they incurred as a result of extreme volatility of these currencies.
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psionl0 said:
These stories have been happening for years. Why are they only going to contribute to the "fall of cryptocurrencies" now?
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Because the explosive phase of the "rise of cryprocurrencies" took place only recently. Bubbles need to inflate before they pop.

Even the Roman Empire had to rise before it could fall. Before it rose, when it was a mall city state squabbling with its equally petty neighbours, the fluctuations in its fortunes were of little importance.
 
psionl0 said:
There has been many "explosive phases". What makes this one unique?
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You are right that bitcoin has had a few jumps in price that could be considered "explosive" given that the currency has no intrinsic value.

But CraigB is correct that the last one was the true "bubble peak" when the coin caught the imagination of the general public.

The other peaks dropped on various news stories, I assume, but the real news stories of ordinary people going bust is different to the past drops. This is the real bursting of the bubble - it IS DIFFERENT.
 
psionl0 said:
There has been many "explosive phases". What makes this one unique?
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Nothing. But when small town Rome lost battles against the neighbouring small town of Veii around 410 BCE nobody outside W Central Italy gave a toss. When Rome was sacked in 410 CE, much of European civilisation collapsed as a result soon afterwards.
 
PartSkeptic said:
You are right that bitcoin has had a few jumps in price that could be considered "explosive" given that the currency has no intrinsic value.

But CraigB is correct that the last one was the true "bubble peak" when the coin caught the imagination of the general public.

The other peaks dropped on various news stories, I assume, but the real news stories of ordinary people going bust is different to the past drops. This is the real bursting of the bubble - it IS DIFFERENT.
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You simply said "this is unique because it IS DIFFERENT". However, you have not listed a single factor that hasn't been present in previous "bubble peaks".
 
psionl0 said:
You simply said "this is unique because it IS DIFFERENT". However, you have not listed a single factor that hasn't been present in previous "bubble peaks".
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So nothing of any significance happened to Bitcoin in the latter part of 2017? Come off it!

Tulips were sold before 1637, and are sold now, and their prices fluctuate. But only for a short period in the 1630s was there a tulip "mania" and it then exploded and dissolved. The mania and subsequent dissolution is probably happening to Bitcoin now, as far as can be seen.
 
Craig B said:
So nothing of any significance happened to Bitcoin in the latter part of 2017? Come off it!
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You still can't say what happened in 2017 that hasn't happened before.

"Once upon a time there was tulip mania ergo bitcoin" is not a response.

PartSkeptic said:
I most certainly did. Widespread public interest. The key factor in ALL bubbles.
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You might only have heard of bitcoin recently but there was "widespread public interest" long before 2017.
 
psionl0 said:
You still can't say what happened in 2017 that hasn't happened before.

"Once upon a time there was tulip mania ergo bitcoin" is not a response.


You might only have heard of bitcoin recently but there was "widespread public interest" long before 2017.
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Hard to pin you down!

Let me be more specific - "widespread public interest in buying bitcoin". Before 2017 it was a curious fad that was reported now and then with some adverts and some reports about the climb. In December we had the "shoeshine brigade" investing and telling others to invest.

Before the December Peak not many got seriously hurt by the ups and downs. That is not the case after the December peak - the bubble peak.
 
Excuse this question if it's been asked and answered. Individuals can exchange bitcoins for cash minus commissions. But what happens if all the old holders who got their coins for next to nothing decide to cash in? The exchanges surely don't have the liquidity to handle this and the value would drop to almost zero. Isn't this be definition a Ponzi scheme. Am I missing something?
 
lionking said:
Excuse this question if it's been asked and answered. Individuals can exchange bitcoins for cash minus commissions. But what happens if all the old holders who got their coins for next to nothing decide to cash in? The exchanges surely don't have the liquidity to handle this and the value would drop to almost zero. Isn't this be definition a Ponzi scheme. Am I missing something?
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I see this difference. In a classic Ponzi scheme the bill is unwittingly picked up by current contributors. In a speculative bubble the bill is picked up by future buyers at the peak price, but the moment and level of that contribution is intrinsically unknowable, and can in fact only be identified in retrospect.

That makes bubble speculators much more nervous than Ponzi victims, who believe all is well until they try to withdraw their cash. Thus, bubbles sometimes become frenzied "manias". I think we can say that the new thing that happened to Bitcoin in 2017 was that it became a "mania" worthy to rank in social influence with its predecessors Tulipomania, the South Sea Bubble, the Railway Mania and "dot.con".
 
lionking said:
Excuse this question if it's been asked and answered. Individuals can exchange bitcoins for cash minus commissions. But what happens if all the old holders who got their coins for next to nothing decide to cash in? The exchanges surely don't have the liquidity to handle this and the value would drop to almost zero. Isn't this be definition a Ponzi scheme. Am I missing something?
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It is like betting on a horse race. The more people that bet on a specific horse the less favorable are the odds. The bookies need the losing bettors to pay the winning bettors less the "commission".

When too many bettors have bet on a favorite and not enough have bet on other horses the bookies have a problem. In some cases, the horse either gets shot or is doped.

I think many exchanges are like roach motels - the money goes in but will not go out. Well, it will for a while, until it is clear the scheme is unsustainable and the panic sets in. They will then vanish like a bubble when it is popped.
 
lionking said:
Excuse this question if it's been asked and answered. Individuals can exchange bitcoins for cash minus commissions. But what happens if all the old holders who got their coins for next to nothing decide to cash in? The exchanges surely don't have the liquidity to handle this and the value would drop to almost zero. Isn't this be definition a Ponzi scheme. Am I missing something?
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You have described exactly how a stock market works - not.

Exchanges (stock or bitcoin) don't buy and sell stock or bitcoins. They match buyers to sellers and take a commission for doing so. Some people offer to sell a certain number of bitcoins at a certain price and some people offer to buy a certain number of bitcoins at a certain price. There are also people who will buy or sell at whatever the current price is.

If a major bitcoin holder decided to commit financial suicide by dumping all of their bitcoins on an exchange and sell them at any price then all the buy offers would be fulfilled (even ones at a very low price) and the price would drop rapidly. However, if the exchange is operating properly then they shouldn't be out anything because they are just brokers.

It is unlikely that any one individual would do anything like that but large numbers of people suddenly deciding to sell can cause a rapid price drop just as large numbers of people suddenly deciding to buy would cause a rapid price rise.
 
PartSkeptic said:
Hard to pin you down!

Let me be more specific - "widespread public interest in buying bitcoin". Before 2017 it was a curious fad that was reported now and then with some adverts and some reports about the climb. In December we had the "shoeshine brigade" investing and telling others to invest.

Before the December Peak not many got seriously hurt by the ups and downs. That is not the case after the December peak - the bubble peak.
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Your apparent belief that we have reached saturation level is not borne out of any fact. The only time we might get close to saturation levels is if the cost of bitcoin transactions becomes so prohibitively high that it is not feasible for small time traders to do any bitcoin transactions. We have nowhere reached that level yet.

There are many stories about "widespread public interest" in bitcoin. This is one of them:

When Cyprus went through a banking crisis in early 2013 this triggered a lot of public interest in buying bitcoin for a measure of protection. This saw a rapid 10 fold rise in the price of bitcoin to in excess of $160. In fact, at one point the price nearly peaked at nearly $260 within a week. Of course the party ended quickly enough and the price rapidly dropped below $100 and brought with it the usual "this is the end of bitcoin" predictions.

The price skated around that level for several months and most believed that $200+ prices would never happen again. Yet by October 2013 we saw yet another 10 fold rise in price within 2 months which saw bitcoin's price peak at nearly $1200. Naturally enough, the price fell - and continued falling - until a year later it was less than $200. The price skated around that level for nearly a year (along with the usual "this is the end of bitcoin" predictions). Prices started rising again but it would take more than a year before $1000+ prices would ever be seen again.

Rinse and repeat.
 
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