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Bitcoin - Part 2

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Roger Ramjets said:
"But it's a store of value!" the coiners cry. Value of what? The energy used to produce it is a sunk cost. It may be a revolutionary new technology but anyone can clone it. Most of the current 'value' in Bitcoin is just naked speculation with nothing to back it up - which is why many people are (rightly) equating it to a Ponzi or pyramid scheme.

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I just realised I'm 20 kilometres removed from a reliable gold and silver dealer.
If I needed a store of value it would literally be faster, cheaper and safer to drive there, buy gold and drive back, than buying Bitcoin.

That includes the guy's markup, petrol, and parking in the inner city.

And he has good coffee.
 
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psionl0 said:
You already made a fool of yourself once by saying that bitcoin was in a bubble when the price was $1000. Your ability to divine the future hasn't improved since.
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I didn't make a fool of myself - it was in a bubble, and my (tongue-in-cheek) prediction has panned out.

Perhaps you thought I was predicting a crash within the next few days or weeks, and my subsequent silence meant I admitted failure. But I know that day-to-day ups and downs don't matter much - it's the longer term trends that matter. I came back when I saw that the end was near.

Luckily I didn't have to wait long for the Bitcoin bubble to pop. It took much longer for Gold - almost two years for the dead cat to stop bouncing - with the deniers constantly accusing me of making a fool of myself.
 

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Roger Ramjets said:
I didn't make a fool of myself - it was in a bubble, and my (tongue-in-cheek) prediction has panned out.

Perhaps you thought I was predicting a crash within the next few days or weeks, and my subsequent silence meant I admitted failure. But I know that day-to-day ups and downs don't matter much - it's the longer term trends that matter. I came back when I saw that the end was near.

Luckily I didn't have to wait long for the Bitcoin bubble to pop. It took much longer for Gold - almost two years for the dead cat to stop bouncing - with the deniers constantly accusing me of making a fool of myself.
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Damn, I had some gold and sold it in 2010 because I had a kid and wanted to move to a bigger house.

Looks like should have held on a bit longer.
 
Roger Ramjets said:
It's actually happening right now, yet you deny it???

No, Bitcoin wasn't invented yesterday. But until recently most people didn't realize just how bad its negatives were. Bitcoin mining is now using roughly the same amount of electricity as New Zealand a country of 4.7 million people, yet transactions are taking much longer to process. At this point Bitcoin is effectively worthless as a day-to-day currency, and it will only get worse.

"But it's a store of value!" the coiners cry. Value of what? The energy used to produce it is a sunk cost. It may be a revolutionary new technology but anyone can clone it. Most of the current 'value' in Bitcoin is just naked speculation with nothing to back it up - which is why many people are (rightly) equating it to a Ponzi or pyramid scheme.

Libertarians argue that Bitcoin is The Future because it isn't beholden to the 'manipulative' banking system and 'corrupt' governments with their 'oppressive' regulations and 'hyper-inflationary' fiat currencies. But these 'advantages' are now being seen as the disadvantages they always were. The lack of regulation and legal protections makes it more risky and expensive to own, not less. Its attractiveness to criminals, tax evaders and irrational speculators has forced governments to take draconian actions against it. And its builtin supply limit makes it highly deflationary, a killer of productivity and prosperity.

So what are Bitcoin's actual fundamentals? It has none. In fact the only reason Bitcoin has increased in 'value' is that investors think it will become more valuable. As soon as they change their minds the price will collapse - and it's already happening!
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And how many hip transplants could we do with that energy?? ;)
 
Roger Ramjets said:
I didn't make a fool of myself - it was in a bubble, and my (tongue-in-cheek) prediction has panned out.
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Did you forget that anybody can examine the price history?
16iyxbk.jpg
 
psionl0 said:
Nothing is happening that hasn't happened hundreds of times already. And that includes all of the sooth-sayers predicting that the latest fall in price heralds the end of bitcoin.

You already made a fool of yourself once by saying that bitcoin was in a bubble when the price was $1000. Your ability to divine the future hasn't improved since.
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The interesting talent is embedded in the message board.
Despite your naysaying TA is a great tool.

I said no 20k, and have made plenty of simple predictions since. It is straightforward from a statistical rumbling of a simple algorithm.

psion10, I never failed.
Check.
 
psionl0 said:
That has been the case every time bitcoin suffered a severe price drop.

Although I am quick to point out the BS in this thread, I am nowhere near as bullish about bitcoin as it might appear. Yet every time, bitcoin surprises me.
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Eh? What's this, then?
psionl0 said:
Nothing is happening that hasn't happened hundreds of times already. And that includes all of the sooth-sayers predicting that the latest fall in price heralds the end of bitcoin.

You already made a fool of yourself once by saying that bitcoin was in a bubble when the price was $1000. Your ability to divine the future hasn't improved since.
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psionl0 said:
Why don't you modify all your posts the way I modified this one. It will save you a lot of keystrokes and still be just as informative.
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No. When I modified yours I put in
... fortune ...​
The dots are [url="https://www.vocabulary.com/dictionary/ellipsis]ellipsis[/URL], indicating that I had made deletions, as in fact I had. You have omitted conventions of that kind, for reasons best known to yourself.
 
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Samson said:
The interesting talent is embedded in the message board.
Despite your naysaying TA is a great tool.

I said no 20k, and have made plenty of simple predictions since. It is straightforward from a statistical rumbling of a simple algorithm.

psion10, I never failed.
Check.
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Why are you bragging on a forum, instead of banking huge gains thanks to technical analysis?
 
Tippit said:
Why are you bragging on a forum, instead of banking huge gains thanks to technical analysis?
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I hope you don't think that people who predict the bursting of a speculative bubble are worth listening to only if they participate in its excesses.
 
Tippit said:
Why are you bragging on a forum, instead of banking huge gains thanks to technical analysis?
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I am bragging because I am anonymous, but mainly because psion10 was one of a strange assortment who stated as false, posts which were known to be true and proven to be true. It was a right royal pain, and demeaning to the forum and its explicit intent.
I exclude marplots from this assortment.
 
psionl0 said:
This thread and this thread will tell you all you want to know.
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Thank you for referring them. I used to list the forcasts and the results, but facts were a hinderance for the ongoing efficacy of the sidesplitting ribbing.

I did suggest buying gold for the long haul on october 2 at 1270, last 1331, and you posted

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=12017195&postcount=912

Hawhaw. :)

By the way, I use the identical algo for Bitcoin and all other markets including gold, remember I suggested selling at 14000, went to 9200 the other day?
(Before I am seen to be off topic.)
 
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Let's bring in the experts to predict the future of Bitcoin... :)


http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/bu...latility-in-bitcoin-post-october-2487679.html

With the current strong placement of Jupiter & Venus, Bitcoin is expected to do well till the end of July ’18,” Astrologer Richa Pathak of Jyotishdham told Moneycontrol.

It has to be noted that combination of Mars & Retrograde Saturn from 7th March '18 to 2nd May 2018 will bring the sharp volatility for about two months. However, even with volatility, prices will see an upward trend till July ’18.

“August ’18 will experience the debilitation of Venus & its placement in Virgo, which would affect Bitcoin’s prices. During this period, currency may be mired in regulatory, legal & taxation controversies which shake investors’ confidence which in turn would lead to dropping in prices,” said Pathak.

She further added that September ’18 will see the shift of Venus in Libra (which signifies Balance). This planet position will give Bitcoin the much-needed stability & this trend will continue until the middle of October ’18.
“After this period, change in planetary position of Jupiter will again bring back the volatility & Bitcoin would face a price pressure. There would again be advent/ rise of other Cryptocurrencies in the markets, which would keep the pressure on for Bitcoin’s prices for the remainder of the year,” she said.
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This is the sort of Libertarian monetary doctrine that has puffed up the "cryptomania" bubble until now. A letter in Politico, commenting on EU proposals to regulate cryptocurrencies.
The Euro,Dollar other fiat currencies are a bubble not Bitcoin. Banksters will be out of a job thanks to crypto currencies transactions will be peer to peer and BTC will act like a virtual gold standard. Inflation proof as there will only ever be 21 million Bitcoins.​
 
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