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Bitcoin - Part 2

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psionl0 said:
A password.


(snip)
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And that password will guarantee you what? Food, gasoline, maybe even fiat currency. Gold, if you demand it?

Which exchange is going to pay you out when they are faced with a "run" where investors want payment, and not in crypto?

Which merchant will sell you goods when the price is dropping?
 
psionl0 said:
That's why you don't trust somebody else with your data.
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I trust the Santander Bank with access to my account. If they set passwords I would therefore trust them with that information. I trust the Clydesdale Bank and the Bank of Scotland and the Royal Bank of Scotland enough to use the banknotes they circulate. I don't think they'll default on them.

I trust these people not because bankers are essentially honest, but because they're regulated effectively, as far as such activities are concerned, by a government in a democratic country.
 
PartSkeptic said:
Oooh. Touchy, touchy over something so small that I only picked up later.

Just how much have you invested in bitcoin? The drop looks serious this time.
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This drop is technically and fundamentally completely different to the previous in the above 1000 era. I see no chance of ever getting to 20k again, the fundamental reason being the explosion of clones.
These all do the identical job. Meanwhile at last count the periodic table stops at about 100, this is a permanent state. I just hope small investors are cashing out, making hay while the sun shines.

I am interested to hear any theory that describes a difference between one crypto and the next other than the label on the bottle.
 
Samson said:
This drop is technically and fundamentally completely different to the previous in the above 1000 era. I see no chance of ever getting to 20k again, the fundamental reason being the explosion of clones.
These all do the identical job. Meanwhile at last count the periodic table stops at about 100, this is a permanent state. I just hope small investors are cashing out, making hay while the sun shines.

I am interested to hear any theory that describes a difference between one crypto and the next other than the label on the bottle.
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Different cryptocurrencies use different algorithms, leading to different difficulties in mining, different speed of transactions etc.

Some crypto currencies e.g. Ripple, are not technically cryptocurrencies as the 'control' over them is not as decentralised as something like Bitcoin.

Some cryptocurrencies, like Monero, do not store complete transaction history like Bitcoin, making them virtually untraceable. (Hence why they are used by many Ransomware creators).

I'm not commenting on the legality, sustainability or investment opportunity inherent in cryptocurrencies, just the fact that there are underlying differences between them.

Of course there are clones that use a similar algorithm underneath and in that case the difference, within the cryptos that use that algorithm, are largely cosmetic.
 
Samson said:
This drop is technically and fundamentally completely different to the previous in the above 1000 era. I see no chance of ever getting to 20k again, the fundamental reason being the explosion of clones.
These all do the identical job. Meanwhile at last count the periodic table stops at about 100, this is a permanent state. I just hope small investors are cashing out, making hay while the sun shines.

I am interested to hear any theory that describes a difference between one crypto and the next other than the label on the bottle.
Click to expand...

Bitcoin is the A-brand. The original. The Coca-Cola. The iPhone of Cryptocurrency. it has a brain position with the public. The Uber drivers and shoeshine boys that are now investing in that stuff talk about Bitcoin, not Crypto Currency, and Blockchain is a buzzword to them.


Having said that. Unlike Coca-Cola and iPhone, the product is flawed and some competitors seem to have solved these problems of massive energy consumption, high commissions and torturously slow transactions taking days while dolar-value veers up-and-down by the thousands every day.

So, unless they fix that (and theoretically, they can through the democratic mechanism of the decentralised organisation), I predict Bitcoin will lose that prominent position eventually.
 
DarthFishy said:
Different cryptocurrencies use different algorithms, leading to different difficulties in mining, different speed of transactions etc.

Some crypto currencies e.g. Ripple, are not technically cryptocurrencies as the 'control' over them is not as decentralised as something like Bitcoin.

Some cryptocurrencies, like Monero, do not store complete transaction history like Bitcoin, making them virtually untraceable. (Hence why they are used by many Ransomware creators).

I'm not commenting on the legality, sustainability or investment opportunity inherent in cryptocurrencies, just the fact that there are underlying differences between them.

Of course there are clones that use a similar algorithm underneath and in that case the difference, within the cryptos that use that algorithm, are largely cosmetic.
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Monero seems to be doing relatively OK.
https://www.worldcoinindex.com/coin/monero

I hate to say this, but I suspect that Monero actually has a practical use, mostly for illegal activities and is thus less vulnerable to speculation.

At least until the multi-billion-dollar hacker armies of several nations turn their attention to it and digitally carpet-bomb it to death.
 
Eddie Dane said:
Bitcoin is the A-brand. The original. The Coca-Cola. The iPhone of Cryptocurrency. it has a brain position with the public. The Uber drivers and shoeshine boys that are now investing in that stuff talk about Bitcoin, not Crypto Currency, and Blockchain is a buzzword to them.


Having said that. Unlike Coca-Cola and iPhone, the product is flawed and some competitors seem to have solved these problems of massive energy consumption, high commissions and torturously slow transactions taking days while dolar-value veers up-and-down by the thousands every day.

So, unless they fix that (and theoretically, they can through the democratic mechanism of the decentralised organisation), I predict Bitcoin will lose that prominent position eventually.
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:thumbsup: Nicely put.
 
Eddie Dane said:
Bitcoin is the A-brand. The original. The Coca-Cola. The iPhone of Cryptocurrency. it has a brain position with the public. The Uber drivers and shoeshine boys that are now investing in that stuff talk about Bitcoin, not Crypto Currency, and Blockchain is a buzzword to them.


Having said that. Unlike Coca-Cola and iPhone, the product is flawed and some competitors seem to have solved these problems of massive energy consumption, high commissions and torturously slow transactions taking days while dolar-value veers up-and-down by the thousands every day.

So, unless they fix that (and theoretically, they can through the democratic mechanism of the decentralised organisation), I predict Bitcoin will lose that prominent position eventually.
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Of course this is correct, but the brand has no mystique like Rolex or Rolls Royce.

Bitcoin 8000 looks a certainty inside 24 hours.
I forecast these things correctly usually but I realise no one likes a clever dick so it goes unheralded.
 
Samson said:
Of course this is correct, but the brand has no mystique like Rolex or Rolls Royce.

Bitcoin 8000 looks a certainty inside 24 hours.
I forecast these things correctly usually but I realise no one likes a clever dick so it goes unheralded.
Click to expand...

I'd say it has lots of mystique to a lot of people, just not the kind of mystique you get with a luxury brand.

People are positively religious about Bitcoin.
 
Samson said:
I see no chance of ever getting to 20k again, the fundamental reason being the explosion of clones
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The "explosion of clones" happened long before the most recent price peak of bitcoin so you are barking up the wrong tree.

Samson said:
I am interested to hear any theory that describes a difference between one crypto and the next other than the label on the bottle.
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Tippit gave a good reason which he called the "network effect" (http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=12146596&postcount=1558). People who are currently holding a fortune in bitcoins are unlikely to switch to another (probably more uncertain) crypto without a good reason.

Limited transaction volumes and high transaction fees are the current problems with bitcoin so any "replacement" crypto would have to provably overcome this. If we want a crypto that people are encouraged to transact with then at least part of one's holdings would have to be subject to inflation or demurrage (and that is a hard thing to sell).

Samson said:
Bitcoin 8000 looks a certainty inside 24 hours.
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Whether that happens or not (regardless of the time frame) has no bearing on the next price peak.

One erstwhile poster predicted that bitcoin would fall to $150 and never reach its "unprecedented" peak of $500 again. Needless to say, that poster (like countless other soothsayers) has never been heard from again.
 
$10.243 on GDAX

I'm interested to see if dipping under $10.000 triggers buying or selling.

EDIT: it was already $9928 earlier
 
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psionl0 said:
The "explosion of clones" happened long before the most recent price peak of bitcoin so you are barking up the wrong tree.


Tippit gave a good reason which he called the "network effect" (http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=12146596&postcount=1558). People who are currently holding a fortune in bitcoins are unlikely to switch to another (probably more uncertain) crypto without a good reason.

Limited transaction volumes and high transaction fees are the current problems with bitcoin so any "replacement" crypto would have to provably overcome this. If we want a crypto that people are encouraged to transact with then at least part of one's holdings would have to be subject to inflation or demurrage (and that is a hard thing to sell).

Whether that happens or not (regardless of the time frame) has no bearing on the next price peak.

One erstwhile poster predicted that bitcoin would fall to $150 and never reach its "unprecedented" peak of $500 again. Needless to say, that poster (like countless other soothsayers) has never been heard from again.
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This time it's different.
Koreans paying a 25% premium, kids buying bitcoin, the news cycle. It has led many broadcasts lately, there is no more gas in the tank.
1929 was a 30 year peak when the shoeshine boys ruled the universe.
 
Samson said:
This time it's different.
Koreans paying a 25% premium, kids buying bitcoin, the news cycle. It has led many broadcasts lately, there is no more gas in the tank.
1929 was a 30 year peak when the shoeshine boys ruled the universe.
Click to expand...

Another flashback to bubbles of old was Warren Buffet being negative about the newest thing and not investing in it. And people proclaiming that he's getting old and doesn't understand that it is different this time.

This is an exact replay of 1998 when Buffet scoffed at buying companies that were blowing the horn about their 'burn rate'.

It's like a dream scene where you walk out of your apartment building and there is literally a shoeshine boy telling you to buy stocks.

But, to be honest, I thought the bubble would continue much longer. I thought $50.000 was in the cards.
 
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psionl0 said:
(snip)People who are currently holding a fortune in bitcoins a lot of soon to be worthless bitcoins are unlikely to switch to another (probably more uncertain) crypto without a good reason.

(snip)
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Fixed that for you. :D

Otherwise I agree with you. They will go down and sink holding their "wallets" close to their chests.
 
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