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North Korea Launches a Missile

That Kim Jong Un is not right in the head.
I cannot agree with this. If you take the position that the sole purpose of the nuclear program is to ensure that the Kim family stays in power, it's quite rational. (I have seen this idea tossed about by a variety of people whose study and understanding of NK exceeds mine).

He's also a basketball fan. Nothing wrong with that.

Kim worries that one day someone in China will put the squeeze on him, and he is probably savvy enough to realize that when they squeeze, he'll just have to put up with being squoze.

As to UN sanctions and memos, and speeches, and resolutions: I suspect that they amuse him sometimes, and annoy him at other times. He's done a great job of Trolling Trump. (Not that this is very hard, see also that gal on ESPN).
 
Now he's a murdering swine but he is smart enough to know just how far he can push the Americans and not get himself killed.

That's an open question.

I don't think he's stupid, and I don't think he's crazy, but one of the problems of running a totalitarian state is that in order to corrupt the information flow to the populace (which you have to do to prevent rebellion), you inevitably taint your own information flow. Kim will certainly have access to much better information than the average Nork, but it's still filtered by his own state apparatus. That means that, no matter how smart or rational he is, he could still make mistakes because of bad information. So it's quite possible that one day he will push too hard, and get himself killed. That's basically what happened to Saddam.
 
That's an open question.

I don't think he's stupid, and I don't think he's crazy, but one of the problems of running a totalitarian state is that in order to corrupt the information flow to the populace (which you have to do to prevent rebellion), you inevitably taint your own information flow. Kim will certainly have access to much better information than the average Nork, but it's still filtered by his own state apparatus. That means that, no matter how smart or rational he is, he could still make mistakes because of bad information. So it's quite possible that one day he will push too hard, and get himself killed. That's basically what happened to Saddam.

Agreed, I should have written it to state, 'so far'.
 
OK, this was just too perfect:
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It looks like the Dear Leader has done it again. Fired a missile in the direction of Japan, in direct defiance of US President Donald Trump.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-42160227

North Korea has fired another ballistic missile, the latest in a series of launches that have raised tensions with its neighbours and the US.
The Pentagon said it believed it was an intercontinental ballistic missile that flew for about 1,000km (620 miles) and fell into the Sea of Japan.
South Korean news agency Yonhap said that the missile was launched from Pyongsong, South Pyongan province.
North Korea's last ballistic missile test was in September.
That came days after Pyongyang had conducted its sixth - and largest - nuclear test.
The US said the latest launch happened at about 03:30 local time (18:30 GMT).


What happens next?
 
It looks like the Dear Leader has done it again. Fired a missile in the direction of Japan, in direct defiance of US President Donald Trump.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-42160227




What happens next?
Eventually North Korea will run out of Russian rocket motors smuggled out of the Ukraine and they will need to declare they've done enough testing.

Sent from my LG-LS997 using Tapatalk
 
What happens next?

One idea:

Marc Thiessen: Trump should take out the site where North Korea just launched a missile (writing in Fox News)

Here is how Trump should respond: Take out the test site from which the North Koreans launched the missile toward Japan — just like he struck the military base in Syria from which the Assad regime had launched a chemical weapons attack on innocent civilians.

Then, as I recently suggested in the Washington Post, Trump should declare North Korea a ballistic missile “no-fly zone” and a nuclear weapons “no-test zone.” He should warn the North Koreans that any further attempts to launch a ballistic missile will be met with a targeted military strike either taking out the missile on the launch pad or blowing it up in the air using missile defense technology. And any further attempt to test a nuclear weapon will be met with a targeted strike taking out the test site and other related nuclear facilities.

So long as North Korea does not retaliate, Trump should assure Pyongyang that he will take no further military action against the regime. However, if North Korea does retaliate, then the United States reserves the right to, as Trump put it to the UN General Assembly, “totally destroy North Korea.”

The bottom line is that there is no negotiating with North Korea. There is no diplomatic solution that is possible with Kim Jong Un in office. And so long as Pyongyang can launch missiles and test nuclear devices with impunity, they hold the initiative and are running the show on the Korean Peninsula. Trump should take control of the situation away from Pyongyang by unilaterally ending their nuclear and ballistic missile testing program. As he does so, he can continue to tighten sanctions, which are starting to hurt, and encourage those around Kim to overthrow him with promises that Trump will negotiate an end to North Korea’s isolation if Kim’s successors are willing to verifiably disarm and dismantle their nuclear program.

But we cannot allow North Korea to continue to act with impunity. They will not stop unless they are forced to do so. Trump has the power to stop them. He should use it.

Personally, I would be on board with this. I don't know what the South Koreans would think. But it would be calling his bluff and finally proof that our threats are not just empty words. He thinks that we would calculate that the risk is too high. This would make him rethink.

The only real alternative I see:

Trump will tweet something stupid. Then nothing.

Which means we just put our heads in the sand and hope for the best.
 
One idea:

Marc Thiessen: Trump should take out the site where North Korea just launched a missile (writing in Fox News)



Personally, I would be on board with this. Snip...

I think I would be too, were a better hand on the wheel.

I'd prefer to just kick the can down the road for 3 years when saner heads (of either party) will hopefully prevail and be better equipped to deal with the situation.

I mean, we don't really have a credible way of preventing a functional ICBM at this point, do we?

To paraphrase the old football quote: There are three possibilities, and two of the three are bad.

1) Kim pushes too far, we end up at war.
2) We take aggressive, if warranted, action, and we end up at war.
3) Kim gets his nukes, shuts his yap, and the world keeps spinning in a relatively stable manner.

I guess Kim could also start raising hell for no reason, and I don't like him having nukes; but it appears he's played the hell out of a really bad hand.
 
Kim has plenty of reason to raise hell.

And if he has nukes to back it up, what's the downside for him?
Are you vague on purpose? How is anyone to answer the question if you drop no hint what "raising hell" is supposed to mean?

Also, I doubt the first paragraph. You make a vague claim of fact, but offer no reasons. Can you at least spell out a reason for Kim to "raise hell" right after you defined "raising hell"?
 
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Eventually North Korea will run out of Russian rocket motors smuggled out of the Ukraine and they will need to declare they've done enough testing.

You don't think NK rocket scientists and engineers are capable of dismantling one or more of those Russian rocket engines and reverse engineering their own?

IMO, a blockade seems to be a viable approach. NK already has a closed border to the South, China is more than capable of blocking their border to the North. A sea blockade of NK's ports would prevent them from receiving military supplies.

Note: I am aware that we can't stop them getting their hands on uranium because they mine their own.
https://fas.org/nuke/guide/dprk/nuke/
 
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One reason I'd wager the NK nuke program is progressing faster than expected is that I'm sure the people working on it have had very good "incentive".
 
You don't think NK rocket scientists and engineers are capable of dismantling one or more of those Russian rocket engines and reverse engineering their own?

IMO, a blockade seems to be a viable approach. NK already has a closed border to the South, China is more than capable of blocking their border to the North. A sea blockade of NK's ports would prevent them from receiving military supplies.

Note: I am aware that we can't stop them getting their hands on uranium because they mine their own.
https://fas.org/nuke/guide/dprk/nuke/


I've been told that a blockade is an act of war like bombing their missile bases would be. Are we ready to go that route?

Maybe we could call it a quarantine like we did with Cuba in 1962, but I don't understand the distinction. I also don't want to get that close to thermonuclear war.
 
You don't think NK rocket scientists and engineers are capable of dismantling one or more of those Russian rocket engines and reverse engineering their own?

IMO, a blockade seems to be a viable approach. NK already has a closed border to the South, China is more than capable of blocking their border to the North. A sea blockade of NK's ports would prevent them from receiving military supplies.

Note: I am aware that we can't stop them getting their hands on uranium because they mine their own.
https://fas.org/nuke/guide/dprk/nuke/

I've been told that a blockade is an act of war like bombing their missile bases would be. Are we ready to go that route?

Maybe we could call it a quarantine like we did with Cuba in 1962, but I don't understand the distinction. I also don't want to get that close to thermonuclear war.


Cuba is an island. I don't think Trump's going to have much success getting China to go along.
 
You don't think NK rocket scientists and engineers are capable of dismantling one or more of those Russian rocket engines and reverse engineering their own?

IMO, a blockade seems to be a viable approach. NK already has a closed border to the South, China is more than capable of blocking their border to the North. A sea blockade of NK's ports would prevent them from receiving military supplies.

Note: I am aware that we can't stop them getting their hands on uranium because they mine their own.
https://fas.org/nuke/guide/dprk/nuke/

China is the reason it is not viable. They won’t blockade NK.
 

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