New telepathy test, the sequel.

abaddon said:
Hey Michel, you had THAT for breakfast? Wow, don't you know that is terribly unhealthy?

No, no, no. Stop projecting your excuses, already.
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Terribly unhealthy, no, I wouldn't say that (I have stopped eating sugar, or at least added sugar). A little unhealthy, perhaps.
 
Michel H said:
This is another small error that I made, I don't think it has any significance.
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This post has very low credibility. You've pointed out small errors which would otherwise be insignificant in other people's posts when they had a 'wrong' answer to your 'tests' for the purpose of discarding results you didn't like.

Hypocrisy earns no credibility.
 
Pixel42 said:
I'm currently doing an interesting free course on the Cognitive Sciences and in the video I just watched the presenter referred to an experiment which might cast some light on what is going on here. I've found this paper, which goes into more detail than the video.
... One urn had 85% red beads and 15% blue beads and the other had 85% blue beads and 15% red beads. ...
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The probability of somebody replying to another person so quickly that the post times of the two posts (shown on the forum with minute accuracy) are exactly the same is probably extremely small, much smaller than 15%. If you have any doubts about that, look at many replies on this forum and check the times. If you want to really understand what happened with Loss Leader, I suggest you read carefully this recent post by him, which was submitted about 19 hours before his "apparent telepathic feat":
Loss Leader said:
... Early on, I used my telepathic powers to see into your weak and ordinary mind and pull out the number you were thinking of. You did not feel aggressively towards me back then so your thoughts were very easy to read and you did not change your answer when you knew I was right. ...
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I think this gives some insight about his state of mind (he may have wanted to prove his ability, which was perhaps not taken seriously by some).
 
Michel H said:
The probability of somebody replying to another person so quickly that the post times of the two posts (shown on the forum with minute accuracy) are exactly the same is probably extremely small, much smaller than 15%.
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1. That's completely irrelevant to the point I was making, which is about why you might erroneously believe that a few people guessing correctly when they have a 1-in-4 chance of doing so is meaningful

2. Loss Leader has explained that he made a post whilst you were also posting, read your post, then edited the post he had just made to answer the post you had just made. You can see from the 'last edited' time stamp that he edited the post several minutes after making it, which bears this out. This is not improbable at all, it happens all the time. I've done it myself.
 
Pixel42 said:
1. That's completely irrelevant to the point I was making, which is about why you might erroneously believe that a few people guessing correctly when they have a 1-in-4 chance of doing so is meaningful

2. Loss Leader has explained that he made a post whilst you were also posting, read your post, then edited the post he had just made to answer the post you had just made. You can see from the 'last edited' time stamp that he edited the post several minutes after making it, which bears this out. This is not improbable at all, it happens all the time. I've done it myself.
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If what was observed here (same post times) "happens all the time", then you should be able to find easily a very large of replies whose times are exactly identical to the times of the posts they were replying to. Good luck with that.
 
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Michel H said:
If what was observed here (same post times) "happens all the time", then you should be able to find easily a very large of replies whose times are exactly identical to the times of the posts they were replying to. Good luck with that.
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All I need to find are posts that were edited within 3 or 4 minutes of being made, which was all that actually happened. Do you really need me to do that?

ETA: Like this one.
 
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Pixel42 said:
All I need to find are posts that were edited within 3 or 4 minutes of being made, which was all that actually happened. Do you really need me to do that?

ETA: Like this one.
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I don't see how this helps your argument: you did not find an original post, and its reply post whose first posting times were exactly the same, as it occurred with this post:
Michel H said:
I am sorry if I sound sometimes a little rude but my own ethical rules require me to always try to tell it "like it is", to say the truth as I understand it (while acknowledging positive contributions from others), instead of a behavior which might be perceived as more socially acceptable. Should my own rules conflict with the rules of this forum, I would hope the moderator team will take the context into account. I am getting a lot of attacks, so it is normal that I fight back.

Sometimes, I feel a little, on this forum, like a person who would be trying to sell "The God Delusion" by Richard Dawkins in Vatican City (the "Vatican City" of Skepticism, here, on this forum). Not the most comfortable of situations.
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(unedited)
and its reply:
Loss Leader said:
No, you are saying what you convince yourself of because you are afraid to confront the fact that I am a true telepath and that you have no special powers. By your own rules, this causes you to lie. That is what you are doing now.





This is extraordinarily hostile. It shows that you continue to lack credibility. Stop lying.
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(edited)
Do you see that the first posting times of these two posts (on the left of your screen), 06:43 PM GMT, are identical?
 
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Yes, Loss Leader posted to the thread at the same time you did. There is nothing odd about this, it's just a coincidence. I don't know what he originally posted, but after hitting submit Loss Leader scrolled up to see if any more posts had appeared whilst he had been posting his (I always do this, on an active thread it's not unusual for other posts to have appeared whilst I was typing), saw yours, and decided to edit the post he had just made to reply to it instead of replying to it separately. If he had done the latter his second post would have had a time stamp showing it had been made 3 minutes later, as he edited an existing post it's the 'last edited' timestamp that shows this.

There is nothing remotely odd about this. I am at a loss to understand why you are making such a big deal of it.

Look, I'm clairvoyant! You can see from the timestamp at the top of my post that I'm quoting a post Loss Leader isn't going to make for another two minutes:

Loss Leader said:
First posting times are irrelevant when a post has been edited and I can prove it:
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Michel H said:
Do you see that the first posting times (on the left of your screen), 06:43 PM GMT, are identical?
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First posting times are irrelevant when a post has been edited and I can prove it:

1. I quoted your post. Even if I used telepathy to know when you were going to post, I could not have quoted your post until I'd seen it.

2. You yourself saw that my eventual post was not what I had originally written. You saw that I'd written the placeholder, "Edited". In fact, that was my second edit. I'd written a substantive post, then deleted it, before I even wrote, "Edited".
 
Loss Leader said:
If you want me to admit I'm not psychic, I'm not going to do that. It's true that, after I posted, I saw you had posted while I was writing. So, rather than leave my post which now made no sense in context, I went back and edited it. It's also true that cross-posting is actually exceedingly common. It happens all the time. And it is true that I used no psychic power to learn when you were posting.

Even so, I am telepathic. You are not.
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Pixel42 said:
Yes, Loss Leader posted to the thread at the same time you did. There is nothing odd about this, it's just a coincidence. I don't know what he originally posted, but after hitting submit Loss Leader scrolled up to see if any more posts had appeared whilst he had been posting his (I always do this, on an active thread it's not unusual for other posts to have appeared whilst I was typing), saw yours, and decided to edit the post he had just made to reply to it instead of replying to it separately. If he had done the latter his second post would have had a time stamp showing it had been made 3 minutes later, as he edited an existing post it's the 'last edited' timestamp that shows this.

There is nothing remotely odd about this. I am at a loss to understand why you are making such a big deal of it.

Look, I'm clairvoyant! You can see from the timestamp at the top of my post that I'm quoting a post Loss Leader isn't going to make for another two minutes:
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Loss Leader said:
First posting times are irrelevant when a post has been edited and I can prove it:

1. I quoted your post. Even if I used telepathy to know when you were going to post, I could not have quoted your post until I'd seen it.

2. You yourself saw that my eventual post was not what I had originally written. You saw that I'd written the placeholder, "Edited". In fact, that was my second edit. I'd written a substantive post, then deleted it, before I even wrote, "Edited".
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OK, you have convinced me. Although the fact that Loss Leader posted in this thread at about the time I was replying to him may not have been entirely coincidental or fortuitous, this is not a good argument.
 

Woah.

Is it me, or did Pixel42 predict what LL was going to say by a couple of minutes!?


That's post 1169.

I'm not saying that's an interesting number, but interesting number.
 
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Michel H said:
Although the fact that Loss Leader posted in this thread at about the time I was replying to him may not have been entirely coincidental or fortuitous.
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The common expression on this forum when someone posts at the same time as yourself, with the same information is "I was ninjed by ...." as in a Japanese ninja. It's quite common.
 
Michel H said:
Yes, I do ....
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That shows little knowledge about how the real world acts..
There is a thing called forum software where to reply to a post, it has to exist first :jaw-dropp!
That is exactly what I I have just done Your post existed. It is physically impossible for anyone in the world to reply to your post before it existed.

P.S. I edited this post a few minutes after I posted it to show you that it can be done.
Original post @ 1:01 PM

Second edit: Previous edit was @ 01:07 PM
 
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Michel H said:
I suggest you read carefully this recent post.
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We read:
Loss Leader said:
Your aggression shows through more clearly than ever. You sarcastically refer to this form as quote-advanced-unquote. You call my powers "alleged". Worst of all, you point out that telepathy can be "annoying".

By your own rules, you lack credibility. Your answers can be disregarded as lies.

I did not only present evidence of my telepathy. Early on, I used my telepathic powers to see into your weak and ordinary mind and pull out the number you were thinking of. You did not feel aggressively towards me back then so your thoughts were very easy to read and you did not change your answer when you knew I was right. Since then, your aggression has grown. After that point, even when I got the right answer by reading your mind, you lied and changed your answer to agree with someone whose powers do not frighten you.

You do let slip one true statement, probably subconsciously. You call telepathy "annoying". I am sure that you do feel annoyed by your jealousy of my extraordinary telepathic abilities.

Your claim of hearing threatening voices is not credible. It is untrue.
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So what?
 
Reality Check said:
We read:

So what?
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I no longer think the fact that post 1137 and post 1138 have (rather curiously) the same posting times should be considered as serious evidence for my telepathy hypothesis, Reality Check. On this specific point (though not on many others, in my opinion), I think that Loss Leader and Pixel42 have given convincing arguments and explanations. Some kind of rare coincidence may have happened.
 
Michel H said:
I no longer think the fact that post 1137 and post 1138 have (rather curiously) the same posting times should be considered as serious evidence for my telepathy hypothesis, Reality Check. On this specific point (though not on many others, in my opinion), I think that Loss Leader and Pixel42 have given convincing arguments and explanations. Some kind of rare coincidence may have happened.
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No, a rare occurrence would you be participating in a legitimate test.
 
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