2017 Off Off Year Election Night

[theprestige]

You're not really saying the trans woman has a mental disorder are you?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gender_dysphoria

 

[NoahFence]

It's biology.
Period.

 

[theprestige]

It's biology.
Period.

That's not what the medical community says.

 

[Puppycow]

Correct me if I'm wrong here, but might the Virginia House of Delegates elections be the most telling? The polls I was looking at showed the Democrats gaining maybe 5 or 6 seats but (if the results on the races that are still close hold) they'll have gained 16. That seems like a big swing. Looking back on the history of the HoD, there has never been a swing that big. So is that telling or am I looking too much into it?

This! The two gubernatorial races were kind of no brainers. But when you look at the House of Delegates districts, Trump lost a lot of ground. Areas that were solidly red last year went blue.

The polling data on key concerns is also telling and has lessons for both parties. The Confederate monuments and NFL kneeling issues didn't seem to drive voters. Dems won in areas where 60 percent thought the statues should be left in places. The issues Trump is jumping on are not ones deciding elections.

Yeah, and Matt Yglesias also makes the following points about the Georgia special elections:

Deborah Gonzales won House District 117 with 53 percent of the vote and Jonathan Wallace won House District 119 with 56 percent of the vote. Both seats are in the Athens area and both were vacant, hence the special elections. But not only were the two seats previously held by Republican incumbents, they were uncontested in the 2016 elections.

Superior Democratic recruiting in these kind of races is both a cause and a consequence of a national political environment that is now Democratic leaning. It’s much easier to get people excited about running for office when the climate is favorable, so the uptick in recruiting is itself a result of Donald Trump’s unpopularity. But it’s also the case that no matter how unpopular Trump is, you can’t win elections without fielding candidates. In 2016, Democrats didn’t have candidates in these races. In 2017 they did, and they both won.

True. You have to actually run a candidate to win. On the state level there's a surprisingly large number of races that go uncontested. In some cases maybe that's because the district is either so red or so blue that it would be pointless to contest it, however, as these cases show, that's not necessarily always the case.

Basically the political pendulum is now swinging the Democrats' way, which bodes well for 2018. Northam was no kind of electrifying high-charisma candidate, he's a pretty bland guy who ran a mediocre campaign, but he still outperformed expectations.

 

[NoahFence]

That's not what the medical community says.

I see it every day.

/end derail

 

[Spindrift]

On behalf of the members of MIAT (Moderation in All Things), I'd like to congratulate you. I don't think I've ever seen a post about the current Governor of Maine that hasn't used one or the other expression, "batcrap crazy", "notorious bigot", "populist dimwit" or "idiot in over his head".

Those are the moderate terms for him.

 

[Oystein]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gender_dysphoria

From that article:

The official reclassification as gender dysphoria in the DSM-5 may help resolve some of these issues, because the term gender dysphoria applies only to the discontent experienced by some persons resulting from gender identity issues.^[8] The American Psychiatric Association, publisher of the DSM-5, states that "gender nonconformity is not in itself a mental disorder. The critical element of gender dysphoria is the presence of clinically significant distress associated with the condition."^[10]

 

[madurobob]

Thought I'd throw this out there too - even BLM got into the action, a local activist known for being the subject of a viral photo from police violence protests this time last year was just elected to the Charlotte city council.

Interesting times.

 

[madurobob]

And this seems like kind of a big deal in Montana. A Liberian refugee was elected mayor.
Link

Collins unseats Mayor Smith; 'progressive ticket' sweeps Helena City Commission

 

[Foolmewunz]

One of the less-covered stories:

http://www.ajc.com/news/state--regi...ats-special-elections/9KdkpqNX1CrVKyfal4qj7N/

The thing about those Georgia wins is that two of those wins were not only flipped from Republican-held, but I think both of them were uncontested in the previous election - very popular Republicans who've moved up rather than out.


ETA: Ninja'd (had my screen stuck on the old post and hadn't refreshed - seems a slow moving thread is picking up some steam now that we can get down to the important bickering).

 

[Lurch]

The results in Virginia, for one, give me hope. As highlighted by Rachael Maddow earlier this evening (Wednesday), a goodly number of the ousted--who were practically all white men--were replaced by women. Including the aforementioned transgendered female. It would seem that the Dems have been working effectively behind the scenes, and getting back into formerly uncontested districts. A kind of redressing of the "all it takes for evil to prevail is for good men to do nothing" scenario that must have played a role in Trump's ascendancy. I hope this is a harbinger of a nation-wide clean sweep to come!

 

[Puppycow]

The thing about those Georgia wins is that two of those wins were not only flipped from Republican-held, but I think both of them were uncontested in the previous election - very popular Republicans who've moved up rather than out.


ETA: Ninja'd (had my screen stuck on the old post and hadn't refreshed - seems a slow moving thread is picking up some steam now that we can get down to the important bickering).

Yep, as I mentioned up thread, you can't beat something with nothing, and you have to actually run a candidate to win.

Looking through the VA results, I still see a lot of uncontested races, unfortunately:

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/r...ackage-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

Out of 100 seats, 10 Republicans went uncontested. Probably because those are very red districts, but still. I also count 22 Democrats who ran uncontested though, for comparison.

 

[Foolmewunz]

The results in Virginia, for one, give me hope. As highlighted by Rachael Maddow earlier this evening (Wednesday), a goodly number of the ousted--who were practically all white men--were replaced by women. Including the aforementioned transgendered female. It would seem that the Dems have been working effectively behind the scenes, and getting back into formerly uncontested districts. A kind of redressing of the "all it takes for evil to prevail is for good men to do nothing" scenario that must have played a role in Trump's ascendancy. I hope this is a harbinger of a nation-wide clean sweep to come!

The Virginia "assembly" (their lower house) is what gives me more hope than the statewide vote. Dems should take NJ and VA in at-large voting. But the VA district elections had a lot of flips and 'though they're still recounting a few, even coming close to taking a majority there is pretty solid. The split prior to the 7th was 66-34 in favor of the Republicans.

The special elections in Georgia (with two major flips) and Washington state were more impressive. Hannity and Trump's buddies on Fox & Friends can downplay them as all "blue states" but they weren't blue districts.

Has anyone seen any results, even isolated ones, that were positive for the Republicans?

 

[Puppycow]

Has anyone seen any results, even isolated ones, that were positive for the Republicans?

In a "silver lining" kind of way:

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_...ymandering_saved_republicans_in_virginia.html

 

[The Don]

In a "silver lining" kind of way:

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_...ymandering_saved_republicans_in_virginia.html

I know I'm some sort of Cassandra around these parts when it comes to my negative predictions and I know it must get pretty old for you all but.....

I've been saying for a while that I don't think that the Democrats will get control of either House or Senate in 2018. The Senate because they are defending the vast majority of seats and the GOP seats up for grabs are super-safe and the House because of gerrymandering. At least one poster pointed out (I forget who, my apologies) that gerrymandering leaves the GOP open once the swing is past a critical tipping point because the GOP votes are spread thinly, defending small majorities whilst the Democratic Party votes are concentrated in unassailable districts.

Unfortunately the Slate article linked by Puppycow says that the elections in Virginia put that theory to the test and the GOP weren't hurt that badly:

Some commentators argued on Tuesday that the Democrats’ wins showed that progressives actually overstated the intractability of partisan redistricting. Business Insider’s Josh Barro summarized this reasoning, arguing: “You can beat the gerrymander without redrawing the map if you win at politics.” Liberal political strategist Tom Bonier went further, claiming that gerrymanders “rely on winning efficiently” and thus leave “more seats exposed to waves,” like the Democratic one we just saw sweep over Virginia.

Data and history suggest Barro and Bonier are badly mistaken. Democrats walloped Republicans at the polls, but the GOP gerrymander served as a red firewall, preventing the Democratic Party from translating its victory into an advantage in the General Assembly. Virginia’s gerrymander did not backfire on Republicans. It worked exactly as intended.

Which is depressing reading for those hoping for change in 2018

 

[aleCcowaN]

Please, help me review and complete the four special congressional district elections Trump says went so well for Republicans -they hold the four seats-.

Utah's 3rd congressional district, Nov 7th,
John Curtis (R) 57.6%| to replace Jason Chaffetz (R) 73.5%
[Kathie Allen (D) 27.1% and Jim Bennet (UU) 8.9%|Stephen Tryon (D), 26.5%]

Georgia's 6th congressional district, June 20th
Karen Handel (R) 51.8%| to replace Tom Price (R) 61.7%
[Jon Ossoff (D) 48.2%| Rodney Stooksbury (D) 38.3%]

Kansas' 4th congressional district, April 11th
Ron Estes (R) 52.2% to replace Mike Pompeo 60.7%
[James Thompson (D) 46%| Daniel Giroux (D) 29.6% and Miranda Allen (Ind) 6.9%]

Are those it? What about the fourth?

Do you see a pattern there? If I extrapolate these results on a quick skimming on the 2016 election, I'm seeing 20 to 35 representatives changing to colour blue. An that without even considering that the change of preferences in suburbia an mid-size towns may do some 2010's gerrymandering backfire.

 

[Stacko]

Please, help me review and complete the four special congressional district elections Trump says went so well for Republicans -they hold the four seats-.

Utah's 3rd congressional district, Nov 7th,
John Curtis (R) 57.6%| to replace Jason Chaffetz (R) 73.5%
[Kathie Allen (D) 27.1% and Jim Bennet (UU) 8.9%|Stephen Tryon (D), 26.5%]

Georgia's 6th congressional district, June 20th
Karen Handel (R) 51.8%| to replace Tom Price (R) 61.7%
[Jon Ossoff (D) 48.2%| Rodney Stooksbury (D) 38.3%]

Kansas' 4th congressional district, April 11th
Ron Estes (R) 52.2% to replace Mike Pompeo 60.7%
[James Thompson (D) 46%| Daniel Giroux (D) 29.6% and Miranda Allen (Ind) 6.9%]

Are those it? What about the fourth?

Montana's at-large congressional district, California's 34th congressional district and South Carolina's 5th congressional district. He doesn't include California's 34th congressional district in the statement and the election in Utah's 3rd congressional district just happened.

Do you see a pattern there? If I extrapolate these results on a quick skimming on the 2016 election, I'm seeing 20 to 35 representatives changing to colour blue. An that without even considering that the change of preferences in suburbia an mid-size towns may do some 2010's gerrymandering backfire.

This is an accurate back of the envelope summation of the problem the GOP faces heading into the 2018 midterms.

 

[aleCcowaN]

Montana's at-large congressional district, California's 34th congressional district and South Carolina's 5th congressional district.

Thanks.

Let's check

Montana's at-large congressional district, May 25th
Greg Gianforte (R) 49.7%, to replace Ryan Zinke (R) 56.2%
[Rob Quist (D) 44.1% and Mark Wicks (L) 5.7% | Denise Juneau (D) 40.6%]

South Carolina's 5th congressional district, June 20th
Ralph Norman (R) 51%, to replace Mick Mulvaney (R) 59.2%
[Archie Parnell (D) 47.9% | Fran Person (D) 38.7%]

Wow! Same pattern

Lame explanation: Trump took skilled representatives for governmental positions and let second line Republicans to replace them in their districts.
Reality: That doesn't explain R+20 dropping to R+3, like in SC.

So those extremely nasty generic ballot polls are just nasty now. I mean, those polls are misleading, like this 3-district country example shows:

District 1 (120,000 RV) - Blues 70%, Reds 20%
District 2 (110,000 RV) - Reds 45%, Blues 40%
District 3 (100,000 RV) - Reds 45%, Blues 35%

Generic Ballot: Blues 51%, Reds 36%

Surprise: Reds get 2 representatives and Blues only 1.

But, in spite of those nasty generic ballot polls, bluefication is in its way.

 

[Trebuchet]

In the stuff that bugs me department, some talking head on the national news announced that Seattle elected its first gay mayor. That'll be quite a surprise to former mayor Ed Murray, who had to resign because of sex abuse allegations. What Seattle actually did was to elect its first lesbian mayor.

 

[aleCcowaN]

... I'm seeing 20 to 35 representatives changing to colour blue. An that without even considering that the change of preferences in suburbia an mid-size towns may do some 2010's gerrymandering backfire.

Rather 10 to 25 in sight of this

Yet, it's a beginning...