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2017 Off Off Year Election Night

Foolmewunz

Grammar Resistance Leader, TLA Dictator
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I figure Fox News might just open with "There's Nothing To Report Tonight". Dems took both NJ and VA state houses, proving that "someone with an unpronounceable name that you've never heard of" can get squashed by the coattails of Big Chris and that Trump Lite (all the bigotry, just not the hairdo) seems to have motivated the Democratic majority in Virginia. The evil progressive won in New York City and the only other elections are for mayors of larger cities where it's sometimes Dem vs Dem or Dem vs No Party Affiliation.

No wonder Donnie timed his Asia trip for now. He gets as far away from bad news as he can.
 
From what I can see so far it looks like a good day for Democrats. They won the Governor's race (8.9% margin; most polls favored him but that's at the high end, so he overachieved if anything)

And they won Lt. Gov. and Atty. Gen. too. And the Dems also pick up seats in the House of Delegates (+13 at last count). Looks like they will take over the majority. Actually, it's too early to say. Could be 50-50 split, several races very close still. This is Virginia, most other states don't have much going on in odd years. There's New Jersey too, but that's not typically a swing state.

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/r...ackage-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news
(NYT election results)

Also this:

Transgender Democrat Danica Roem Makes History, Defeats Notorious Anti-LGBTQ Incumbent

On Tuesday, Danica Roem defeated incumbent Bob Marshall to win a seat in the Virginia House of Delegates. The 33-year-old Democrat, who is transgender, easily defeated the 73-year-old Republican, who is perhaps the most anti-LGBTQ politician in America. Marshall has held the seat since 1992 and won reelection in 2015 by 12 percentage points. Roem is the first openly transgender state legislator in American history.

Marshall is notorious for introducing anti-LGBTQ legislation. After Congress repealed the federal ban on gays in the military, Marshall proposed a measure to ban openly gay people from serving in the Virginia National Guard. “It’s a distraction … and I’m worried about this guy who’s got eyes on me,” Marshall said. He also derailed the appointment of a judge solely because he was gay, and served as the primary sponsor of Virginia’s successful constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage. In 2015, he proposed a radical bill that would legalize anti-LGBTQ segregation in hotels, restaurants, businesses, schools, government agencies, and hospitals. And in 2016, he put forth a measure that would bar transgender students from using the school bathroom that aligns with their gender identity, and requiring principals to out gender-nonconforming students to their parents.

Marshall’s avowed hatred of LGBTQ people—he has called himself the state’s “chief homophobe”—inspired Roem, a journalist from Northern Virginia, to run for his seat. Throughout the campaign, Marshall misgendered Roem and launched cruel attacks on her gender identity, depicting her as a bathroom predator. In response, Roem embraced her identity in a remarkable ad:

So, bashing the gays doesn't work anymore as a political platform. At least not there. This guy has held the seat since 1992, so I guess it isn't exactly a liberal district.

Fwiw, here's the ad in question:
 
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Earlier Trump endorsed Gillespie on Twitter, now he's saying that Gillespie lost because he didn't "embrace me".

Donald Trump said:
Ed Gillespie worked hard but did not embrace me or what I stand for. Don’t forget, Republicans won 4 out of 4 House seats, and with the economy doing record numbers, we will continue to win, even bigger than before!

Given that Virginia is gerrymandered to favor Republicans, if Democrats can manage to take over it would be a big win. The crucial thing is who controls in 2021, when the next redistricting happens.
 
Interesting how Republicans are downplaying this.
 
Earlier Trump endorsed Gillespie on Twitter, now he's saying that Gillespie lost because he didn't "embrace me".



Given that Virginia is gerrymandered to favor Republicans, if Democrats can manage to take over it would be a big win. The crucial thing is who controls in 2021, when the next redistricting happens.

What is Donnie on about? Four of four? Is he talking about the special elections in the safe red districts? Gasp! And the news there, as everyone knows, was that Speedbump Iowa and Wide-Part-In-Road Georgia nearly went blue.

In the state Assembly in Virginia, the Dems just picked up a bunch of seats; I think it's now 50 Dems and 50 GOP but some of the races are so close, that the GOP could still take a lead. But whether the Dems get 48, 49 or 50, it's a huge swing from 36! I think Virginia GOP candidates will be running away from Jim Crow and his cousin Donnie Johnny in '18.

The VA Senate election is in the next off-off-year, 2019. The GOP currently has only a one or two seat edge. Minus the gerrymandering, Virginia is a blue state.
 
This is good, because state politics matter. Hopefully, this will make voter suppression attempts by the GOP harder.
 
This is good, because state politics matter. Hopefully, this will make voter suppression attempts by the GOP harder.

This is something that Reagan's strategists came up with in '79 and the GOP followed through.... Be The Party In Control of the State When Re-districting Comes Up After the Census.
 
Though not officially a partisan race, the Dem in Saint Petersburg won for mayor. Saint Pete went to Trump in 2016 though by a small margin.
 
Interesting how Republicans are downplaying this.


I was looking for signal differences between CNN and Fox News earlier in the day. In the previous post-Trump election, where Republicans did well, it was noted CNN was downplaying the portentous nature of the results because they knew the Democrats were going to do poorly because of their unrevealed exit polling*.

I detected neither excitement nor downplay from either until about an hour to closing time, then CNN was ready to go with a huge panel. It was then you could tell. You could feel their relief as they launched into loud rhetoric about it.

Then AHS Cult came on, so I watched that, then caught up on Supergirl on my DVR.





* For those who don't know, because of the First Amendment, it's perfectly legal for there to be exit polling and broadcasting of the results of that polling even as voting as going on. So they have what used to be called a gentlemen's agreement to not broadcast those results until the polls close in that state, due to some notable effects of people not bothering to go in the second half of the day because they realize their candidate is a lost cause. This might not affect that race's result, but does sway the other races as the winner's candidates still joyously line up for the thrill of piling on.

This is still a concern for the national presidential election as the winner is often obvious when the polls close on the east coast, and the west coast's loser's supporters don't show up, swaying the congressional and senatorial elections in those states towards the winning presidential candidate's party.
 
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Interesting how Republicans are downplaying this.

And if the Dems had done badly, they would be downplaying this.
Politicians of all stripes have been doing this forever, probably since Ancient Greece.
As much as I dislike what the GOP has become,this is SOP for political parties:if you win it is a great important victory,if you lose,it is not that important.
 

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