The Trials of Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito: Part 26

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You only have to look at the statistics In the USA/UK few defendants are granted an appeal. Of the ones that do:

  • In the USA 17% of appeals are successful.
  • In Italy, a whopping 50% are successful.

In Italy appeals are automatic. In fact you get two.

So, imagine you are convicted in the States. Say your hope of getting an appeal, based on a point of law only, is one in five, and then, having had it granted, 17% chance of having your conviction overturned (official statistics). That's (0.20 x 0.17) = a 3.4% probability of walking free, or 96.6% chance of remaining convicted.

In Italy, an automatic appeal is 100% certain, not once, but twice, and at Supreme Court level it is a 50-50 chance either way. Then the probability is thus, (1.0 x 1.0 x 0.50) = 50% probability of getting off scot-free.

Whilst words can lie, numbers cannot.

Your numbers support the opposite of your point, but that's the reality of most of your posts. The US system obviously insures that more actually guilty people with actually strong evidence are taken to trial in the first place, so the court isn't pointlessly dragging people through a years long process when there obviously isn't enough evidence to sustain a conviction.
 
Quite handy for Vixen that the West Memphis Three derail was (properly) split into the WM3 thread. Means she can pretend it's not there, and avoid having to defend the outright falsehoods she was posting about the evidence in that case.

If she thinks a victim's blood was found on something belonging to Damien Echols, it says something about the "facts" she constantly posts on this thread.
 
Your numbers support the opposite of your point, but that's the reality of most of your posts. The US system obviously insures that more actually guilty people with actually strong evidence are taken to trial in the first place, so the court isn't pointlessly dragging people through a years long process when there obviously isn't enough evidence to sustain a conviction.


Exactly. The numbers actually tend to support two damning things in respect of Italian "justice" - one of them is a fact, and the other one is a deductive inference.

The fact is that, astonishingly, the courts of first instance in Italy get it wrong HALF THE TIME. That's a scandalous proportion.

And the inference is that the courts of first instance in Italy are either monumentally incompetent, or cravenly beholden to the prosecution, or a combination of the two.

In the case of the Knox/Sollecito trial process specifically, I believe it was a combination of those two factors. I don't think either Knox or Sollecito should ever have faced trial in the first place, had the "evidence" (and lack of evidence) been competently, fairly and objectively evaluated by police and prosecutors (rather than what I think actually happened, which was that police and prosecutors got utterly blinded by tunnel vision and confirmation bias, once they'd convinced themselves that Knox and Sollecito were participants in the murder).

And when the case was brought before the Massei court, I believe that court acted manifestly improperly and anti-judicially in the way it bent to the prosecution case again and again, more-or-less accepting it as the default "truth" until/unless the defence could actively disprove it. I still do believe that the defence made significant glaring errors in that first trial, perhaps most notably their failure to wholly discredit Curatolo (which would have been an extremely easy thing to do), plus a failure to discredit the likes of Quintavalle and Capezzali, plus a failure to discredit the DNA and blood evidence, plus a failure to realise that the practical upper limit for ToD could accurately be determined from the autopsy analysis of Kercher's stomach, duodenum and intestines. But even if the defence teams had done all these things, it's still entirely possible that the Massei court would have simply viewed the defence's entire presentation as nothing more than partisan agitation (while, conversely, the prosecutors were viewed as honest, disinterested public servants with no skin in the game and a diligent approach to seeking solely "the truth".....).

I do remember reading somewhere that in Italy, the first trial is almost viewed as a write-off from a defence point of view - that once a defendant is charged, it's hugely likely that the first court will convict. Then the real work starts in front of the appeal court. The astonishing 50% statistic would seem to bear out the notion that the real adjustment or annulment of convictions takes place at the appeal level.

And with all that in mind, it points once again to a structural institutionalised failing in the Italian system. The court of first instance should be the court that gets things right (albeit with inevitable occasional mistakes, but way way short of 50% mistakes....). Defendants are owed as much, victims are owed as much, and frankly the Italian state and the Italian public are owed as much.
 
So after two days of you and Stacyhs frantically searching for a citation, there are none.


The main reason his report was spiked was because he treated the evidence in a piecemeal fashion.

For example, imagine you have someone accused of embezzlement. There are ten instances of his transferring funds from his employers (let's say a trader in a bank) account into his own.

Hellmann would have looked at each occasion one by one dimissing each in turn as 'just a mistake'.

A judge with experience in serious crime, such as murder, would not make such an elementary error.

He or she would look at whole overview of the ten instances of the funds 'accidentally' ending up in the trader's account and spot a pattern.


No wonder Hellmann was shuffled out of his job immediately after his embarrassing performance.

Umm..no. I'm haven't been looking for anything on Hellmann. I have no need to. I'm not the one who made a claim regarding his experience. You are. You are also the one who has failed to provide any supporting evidence.

But, speaking of frantically searching for a citation, how's that going for ya regarding the 530, 1 vs 530,2 restriction?
 
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You only have to look at the statistics In the USA/UK few defendants are granted an appeal. Of the ones that do:

  • In the USA 17% of appeals are successful.
  • In Italy, a whopping 50% are successful.

In Italy appeals are automatic. In fact you get two.

So, imagine you are convicted in the States. Say your hope of getting an appeal, based on a point of law only, is one in five, and then, having had it granted, 17% chance of having your conviction overturned (official statistics). That's (0.20 x 0.17) = a 3.4% probability of walking free, or 96.6% chance of remaining convicted.

In Italy, an automatic appeal is 100% certain, not once, but twice, and at Supreme Court level it is a 50-50 chance either way. Then the probability is thus, (1.0 x 1.0 x 0.50) = 50% probability of getting off scot-free.

Whilst words can lie, numbers cannot.

So you are admitting that the Italian courts of first instance screw up 50% of the time? Wow. Not a very good track record, is it?
 
Quite handy for Vixen that the West Memphis Three derail was (properly) split into the WM3 thread. Means she can pretend it's not there, and avoid having to defend the outright falsehoods she was posting about the evidence in that case.

If she thinks a victim's blood was found on something belonging to Damien Echols, it says something about the "facts" she constantly posts on this thread.

It's yet another case where she thinks it's possible that multiple people can commit a close up and horrendous sexual assault/murder and leave not a shred of physical evidence behind...on three victims, no less. No DNA, no fingerprints, no nothing. But blue wax was found on the victim and the girlfriend of one of the accused had...good grief...a blue candle at her house! Vixen declared them an "exact match" when the expert found no such thing, so why not believe there was a victim's blood on Echol's necklace when there was no such finding? After all, footprints that tested negative for blood are still in blood and finding the DNA of someone in their own bathroom is a sure sign of guilt. Ya gotta love it.
 
Best not get into that case again in this thread, I was really just taking note that Vixen seemed to have deserted that topic.

It's different in that the absence of either physical or eyewitness (or indeed earwitness) evidence against the accused is absolutely TOTAL. A coached and recanted confession (oh where have I heard that before) and a jailhouse snitch (also recanted) is actually the lot. So anyone trying to make a case for guilt has very slim pickings to work with and is going to have to start lying at a fairly early stage.

Dodgy DNA and misidentified footprints offer a much more fertile ground for the obfuscator.
 
So you are admitting that the Italian courts of first instance screw up 50% of the time? Wow. Not a very good track record, is it?

As much as Barbie Nadeau is worthy of scorn for her reporting, this is essentially the report she gave to CNN in Dec 2009 on the night of the first conviction.

She reported that up to half of 1st instance convictions were overturned at the appeal level. She then expressed an opinion as to why the pair had been convicted to begin with: "The prosecution case was weak but the defences cases were weaker - this could very well be overturned at appeal."

Which it was.

But it is interesting that when Nadeau behaved herself and refrained from slutting-up the case (like she'd done with her book) she actually did know what was going on.
 
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Best not get into that case again in this thread, I was really just taking note that Vixen seemed to have deserted that topic.

It's different in that the absence of either physical or eyewitness (or indeed earwitness) evidence against the accused is absolutely TOTAL. A coached and recanted confession (oh where have I heard that before) and a jailhouse snitch (also recanted) is actually the lot. So anyone trying to make a case for guilt has very slim pickings to work with and is going to have to start lying at a fairly early stage.

Dodgy DNA and misidentified footprints offer a much more fertile ground for the obfuscator.

Vixen previously expressed her belief that nobody ever taken to trial is actually innocent, no wrongful convictions take place, and any acquittal is the result of the defense lawyers amorally muddying the waters.

I asked her about this before, you can see her response here.
 
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This is an interesting article on the number of lawyers in Italy and the judicial process there. Apparently, even the Italian government knows it's crap. Italy ranks second to Greece with the number of lawyers at 375 per 100,000 people. And, until recently, becoming a lawyer in Italy was easy...as does becoming a "doctor". I guess that explains a lot.

https://www.thelocal.it/20150310/italy-packed-with-lawyers-but-justice-slow
 
Vixen previously expressed her belief that nobody ever taken to trial is actually innocent, no wrongful convictions take place, and any acquittal is the result of the defense lawyers amorally muddying the waters.

I asked her about this before, you can see her response here.

I love this exchange:

Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
You are right Vixen.

Vixen's response:

There is a large volume of evidence that incriminates Rudy.
And even more that incriminates Amanda.

LOL! Yep, like all that DNA, the fingerprints, the bloody handprint, andthe bloody shoeprints! Ya gotta love it!
 
Appeals in the Italian judicial system are not "automatic". The CSC declines to hear more appeal cases than it accepts, based on an evaluation of the merit of the appeal.
 
Your numbers support the opposite of your point, but that's the reality of most of your posts. The US system obviously insures that more actually guilty people with actually strong evidence are taken to trial in the first place, so the court isn't pointlessly dragging people through a years long process when there obviously isn't enough evidence to sustain a conviction.

Not a very well thought out argument on Vixen's part, eh?

I'm still trying to figure out how a guarantee of having to endure three, four or more 'trials'** is beneficial to the defendant, but maybe it's just me.

** Yeah, yeah, it's all just one trial - well sue me for calling a process whereby the prosecution and the defense present their arguments, present evidence, call witnesses, wait for the jury to deliberate and endure announcement of the verdict a trial. I guess where Italy is concerned I should call them sub-trials instead. It certainly does ensure one hell of a legal bill. I guess that's beneficial to the defendant as well?
 
An argument that TJMK like to use is that prosecutors must jump through hoops for a case to go to court and thus according to TJMK there must be a strong case for a conviction to occur. If this was true, how were Amanda and Raffaele convicted on the basis of a totally baseless case with no credible evidence against Amanda and Raffaele. If it is so difficult for prosecutors to get cases to court, why did the defendants in the Narducci case get sent to trial on the basis of a crackpot theory by a nut job prosecutor.
 
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This is an interesting article on the number of lawyers in Italy and the judicial process there. Apparently, even the Italian government knows it's crap. Italy ranks second to Greece with the number of lawyers at 375 per 100,000 people. And, until recently, becoming a lawyer in Italy was easy...as does becoming a "doctor". I guess that explains a lot.

https://www.thelocal.it/20150310/italy-packed-with-lawyers-but-justice-slow

Also, because Italy is one of those countries where the prosecution is allowed to appeal an acquittal, in cases such as murder where there is no statute of limitations, the "single" trial may go on as long as the accused is alive, as the appeal courts including the CSC quash each judgment in turn.
 
Also, because Italy is one of those countries where the prosecution is allowed to appeal an acquittal, in cases such as murder where there is no statute of limitations, the "single" trial may go on as long as the accused is alive, as the appeal courts including the CSC quash each judgment in turn.

I feel that in a fair justice system a not guilty verdict should be final and prosecutors should not be able to appeal. What happened in this case was corrupt police/prosecutors who developed tunnel vision who became convinced Amanda and Raffaele killed Meredith and nothing would change this belief. This is a major cause of miscarriage of justices. If prosecutors can appeal not guilty verdicts, this can be disastrous for defendants. It can give vindictive prosecutors a chance to pursue defendants which is a gift to a vindictive loony like Mignini. If someone is found not guilty it would be awful mental torture if the prosecution appealed and the case went to trial again. There is always a possibility that corrupt prosecutors like Mignini will manufacture evidence for a new trial eg finding witnesses to give false testimony.
 
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I feel that in a fair justice system a not guilty verdict should be final and prosecutors should not be able to appeal.
That is, in fact, the system in Italy. All lower court verdicts are provisional. Lower court convictions do not necessarily result in the execution of the sentence, as per Nencini's conviction in 2014. Raffaele only had his passport taken away, and Nencini said that Knox was legally outside of the country.
What happened in this case was corrupt police/prosecutors who developed tunnel vision who became convinced Amanda and Raffaele killed Meredith and nothing would change this belief. This is a major cause of miscarriage of justices. If prosecutors can appeal not guilty verdicts, this can be disastrous for defendants. It can give vindictive prosecutors a chance to pursue defendants which is a gift to a vindictive loony like Mignini.
There have been plenty of vindictive prosecutors outside of Italy who have achieved the same result with the same methods. (I should say that by and large, the vast vast majority of prosecutors are the unsung heroes of society.)
 
Also, because Italy is one of those countries where the prosecution is allowed to appeal an acquittal, in cases such as murder where there is no statute of limitations, the "single" trial may go on as long as the accused is alive, as the appeal courts including the CSC quash each judgment in turn.

Technicality alert. An acquittal in Italy cannot be appealed. Nothing is final until Cassazione signs off on a verdict.
 
Also, because Italy is one of those countries where the prosecution is allowed to appeal an provisional acquittal, in cases such as murder where there is no statute of limitations, the "single" trial may go on as long as the accused is alive, as the appeal courts including the CSC quash each judgment in turn.

Technicality alert. An acquittal in Italy cannot be appealed. Nothing is final until Cassazione signs off on a verdict.

Thanks for the correction.

Also, because Italy is one of those countries where the prosecution is allowed to appeal a provisional acquittal, in cases such as murder where there is no statute of limitations, the "single" trial may go on as long as the accused is alive, as the appeal courts including the CSC quash each judgment in turn.

But to correct your correction, the CSC does not need to finalize a judgment if it is not appealed, in accordance with Italian law, to it. For example, the Boninsegna court acquittal of Amanda Knox on the charge of calunnia against the police and Mignini became final when the prosecution did not appeal within the legally authorized time limit for appeals.

The prosecution cannot appeal an acquittal pronounced by the CSC, nor can it appeal a (provisional) acquittal from a lower court once the legally authorized time limit for appeals has passed.
 
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Thanks for the correction.

Also, because Italy is one of those countries where the prosecution is allowed to appeal a provisional acquittal, in cases such as murder where there is no statute of limitations, the "single" trial may go on as long as the accused is alive, as the appeal courts including the CSC quash each judgment in turn.

But to correct your correction, the CSC does not need to finalize a judgment if it is not appealed, in accordance with Italian law, to it. For example, the Boninsegna court acquittal of Amanda Knox on the charge of calunnia against the police and Mignini became final when the prosecution did not appeal within the legally authorized time limit for appeals.

The prosecution cannot appeal an acquittal pronounced by the CSC, nor can it appeal a (provisional) acquittal from a lower court once the legally authorized time limit for appeals has passed.

I sit corrected, since I'm not standing right now.
 
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