Brexit: Now What? Part III

[uke2se]

Typical from the Leave campaign. Speculation from people with little or no relevant knowledge is equivalent to, or indeed trumps, detailed research using published models carried out by experts in the field.

Experts-schmexperts. Ain't nobody's gonna tell me what's "true" or "false". That's for me to decide! This is the time of personal reality.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Chancellor warns that one worst case scenario for a "no deal", would see no air travel taking place between the UK and the EU after Brexit day if new border, security and immigration systems aren't in place.

That's ok then.

 

[Hubert Cumberdale]

Chancellor warns that one worst case scenario for a "no deal", would see no air travel taking place between the UK and the EU after Brexit day if new border, security and immigration systems aren't in place.

That's ok then.

Things worked OK before we had air travel you know...

 

[fagin]

Didn't stop the Vikings.

 

[Hubert Cumberdale]

Didn't stop the Vikings.

The Norweigian model?

 

[jimbob]

Daily Mash sum things up nicely, your all Braitors.

Doomsayer ruining Brexit by thinking about it

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/polit...ng-brexit-by-thinking-about-it-20171010137207

And this one
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/...ciously-similar-to-middle-ages-20171011137272

GOVERNMENT plans for leaving the EU without a trade deal seem to involve living in a 14th century agrarian society, experts have noted.

Concerns have been raised over initiatives such as working 16 hours a day in the fields to grow enough food and using prayer to cure illnesses after the NHS has collapsed.

Economist Donna Sheridan said: “Total economic meltdown followed by living in filthy hovels with your pigs was probably not what most people voted for in the referendum.

“I’m particularly concerned about replacing high-tech manufacturing and financial services with growing cabbages. I also believe there is no significant overseas market for ‘swords and big catapults’.”

 

[Andy_Ross]

Didn't stop the Vikings.

Or the Celts, Romans, Angles, Saxons, Normans or Dutch.

 

[Tolls]

Are we going to become Amish then?

 

[ceptimus]

Typical from the Leave campaign. Speculation from people with little or no relevant knowledge is equivalent to, or indeed trumps, detailed research using published models carried out by experts in the field.

Experts like the governor of the Bank of England, who said he would have to put up interest rates following a leave vote? He said he would put rates up immediately after the vote, not once the process was triggered or complete. Of course, he actually did the exact opposite and reduced interest rates. It's wonderful that we have these unbiased experts in charge of our economy.

 

[ceptimus]

Chancellor warns that one worst case scenario for a "no deal", would see no air travel taking place between the UK and the EU after Brexit day if new border, security and immigration systems aren't in place.

That's ok then.

Of course the EU will continue to operate air travel into countries such as Sudan. More scaremongering by increasingly desperate remain supporters.

 

[Information Analyst]

Of course the EU will continue to operate air travel into countries such as Sudan. More scaremongering by increasingly desperate remain supporters.

Are you suggesting that in the event of a hard border from Brexit Day, if there are no customs and immigration measures to police it, departures and arrivals can continue as previously without bothering? So much for "taking back control"!

 

[Darat]

Of course the EU will continue to operate air travel into countries such as Sudan. More scaremongering by increasingly desperate remain supporters.

How will customs work? How many new staff will have been trained and in place to deal with the additional requirements of no longer having an EU nationals division at customs?

 

[ceptimus]

Are you suggesting that in the event of a hard border from Brexit Day, if there are no customs and immigration measures to police it, departures and arrivals can continue as previously without bothering? So much for "taking back control"!

Don't you think we already have customs and immigration measures for people or goods coming from outside the EU?

Of course, if Hammond and remainers like him insist on not building up extra capacity prior to Brexit then there will be very long queues, chaos leading to cancelled flights and so on.

This is why Hammond should be sacked immediately. Put a leaver in the job of Chancellor and get on with the task of preparing for the increasingly likely hard Brexit.

Hammond is a great danger to this country. His strategy is to fail to prepare for Brexit, thus allowing the EU to demand whatever they like. He hopes that we will roll over, pay the EU even more than we do at present and agree to everything they want.

 

[jimbob]

Here's a Brexiter's take: https://peterjnorth.blogspot.co.uk/2017/10/i-dont-like-this-brexit-but-i-will-live.html



But on the plus side;

So that's all right then. Why do so many of these people seem to despise those younger than them?

Another Eurosceptic blog - with a confusingly similar name

http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86627#disqus_thread

As to the fate of Brexit, when I wrote yesterday's piece I was of the view that the October European Council was unlikely to allow the UK to move to phase two of the negotiations, thereby massively increasing the chances of the UK leaving the EU without a deal.

That pessimism, it seems, is shared by Lord Kerr who reckons that there is only a 50-50 percent chance of the UK pulling off a deal.

In the meantime, it takes no special insight to know that the UK delegation, when it resumes work next week, is not going to offer anything calculated to break the logjam. Any decisive move would have a political impact on one or other wing of the Conservative Party, and bring Mrs May's tenure closer to termination. She is basically frozen into inactivity.

Once people realise that food exports will virtually grind to a halt after Brexit, they might start waking up. But there is also the question of imports. There will be no question of dismantling border controls for third country products but, once we leave the EU, WTO rules prohibiting discrimination will require that we apply those same checks to EU products.

In this case, WTO rules – far from giving us a free pass – will create a problem that, at the moment, hasn't even been acknowledged. But with no BIP at Dover – and no space for one – imports through that ports will also be badly affected.

Even now, there is insufficient time to resolve such issues – assuming that the necessary funding can be found for developing the necessary infrastructure. By the time we have finished, billions will have to be spent and thousands more officials will have to be appointed.

 

[jimbob]

Or this - remember this is an Eurosceptic blog

http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86632

Then, with their feet planted firmly on the ground, British retailers have reiterated their warning that the UK faces "gaps on shelves" if the country does not reach a new post-Brexit deal on trade and customs with the EU.

The British Retail Consortium (BRC) has responded to Theresa May's trade plans with a warning that without a robust new deal with the EU, UK shoppers "will be hit with reduced availability of affordable goods with almost immediate effect". CEO of the BRC Helen Dickinson writes:
The UK's future trade policy is the most significant aspect of the Brexit negotiations for consumers. ... Annual customs declarations would jump from 55 to 250 million and with four million trucks crossing the border between the UK and EU each year, new red tape, border controls and checks would mean delays at ports of up to two to three days for some products. Businesses and consumers would face higher costs, gaps on shelves and product shortages.
This is not scaremongering – and nor is the picture we have used. Sophisticated though they may be, modern logistic systems are extraordinarily fragile. Brexit involves tearing up the rule books and rewriting them around completely different systems. You do not have to be an expert to know that this means trouble.

Mrs May and her colleagues are playing with fire.

 

[The Don]

Experts like the governor of the Bank of England, who said he would have to put up interest rates following a leave vote? He said he would put rates up immediately after the vote, not once the process was triggered or complete. Of course, he actually did the exact opposite and reduced interest rates. It's wonderful that we have these unbiased experts in charge of our economy.

Ah, the usual Leave campaign "alternative facts".

I'd like to see the Mark Carney quote in context. Usually his pronouncements are qualified in some significant way. In particular I'd also like to know why he thought interest rates would have to rise - was it to combat some expected inflationary pressures ?

The day after the Brexit vote result, government policy appeared to change immediately. "Austerity" was out of the window and it was all hands to the pump in an attempt to avoid an economic downturn.

Please note however that, despite bank base rate remaining at historical lows, the mortgage rates being charged by lenders are indeed rising - as suggested by "Project Fear" (although in truth that would have been after leaving the EU not just the vote).

 

[jimbob]

http://metro.co.uk/2017/10/11/imf-s...eption-as-world-economy-bounces-back-6992910/

 

[jimbob]

Ah, the usual Leave campaign "alternative facts".

I'd like to see the Mark Carney quote in context. Usually his pronouncements are qualified in some significant way. In particular I'd also like to know why he thought interest rates would have to rise - was it to combat some expected inflationary pressures ?

The day after the Brexit vote result, government policy appeared to change immediately. "Austerity" was out of the window and it was all hands to the pump in an attempt to avoid an economic downturn.

Please note however that, despite bank base rate remaining at historical lows, the mortgage rates being charged by lenders are indeed rising - as suggested by "Project Fear" (although in truth that would have been after leaving the EU not just the vote).

Yes, and there was no reason why austerity couldn't have been ended anyway.

 

[Craig B]

Don't you think we already have customs and immigration measures for people or goods coming from outside the EU?

Not on our only land border with an EU member state; indeed the UK's only land border with any state. What will we do about that?

 

[ceptimus]

Not on our only land border with an EU member state; indeed the UK's only land border with any state. What will we do about that?

We've already said that we won't install any physical infrastructure on the NI-Ireland border. If the EU insist on installing physical infrastructure on the EU side of the border, then it's up to them to persuade the Irish to build it.

Paradoxically the EU (and some remain enthusiasts here) insist that no one wants any such infrastructure but that it *must* be built anyhow. The EU further insist that we must significantly define the form of any such infrastructure before moving on to possible trade talks that might result in the infrastructure not being required - and certainly any trading agreements reached (or not) will determine the amount of checks and paperwork they'll require whenever goods or people pass across the border.