Brexit: Now What? Part III

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Craig B said:
I take that point. However the RoI will, after Brexit, be in an area of free within EU travel and the UK will not. Before the establishment of the EU there was no arrangement of that kind.

So it's not now a question only of "British and Irish citizens", is it?
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There's at least 3 issues related to travel that need to be distinguished:

1)Freedom of movement
This means free trade in labor and isn't immediately about borders. Union citizens must be treated like national citizens (or subjects, as it were).
Ending freedom of movemnt is basically a protectionist measure. A large faction of brexiteers is quite open about this.

2)Visa-free travel
In practice this means that a person can enter the country by only showing an ID. While there is visa free travel within the EU, there are a lot of third countries that have visa free arrangements with European countries.
From the EU side, there is no obstacle to a visa free arrangement. I think the UK will also agree. It would mean that Europeans could easily work illegally in the UK but there are not that many who would be willing to do that. Those who would, would be legally disenfranchised.

3)Schengen
Once you have a customs union and visa free travel, there is not much need for border controls at all. The only issue left is third country nationals who have a visum for one country but not another. That's hardly worth bothering, so you just agree to have a single visum for the whole Schengen area and no longer bother with border controls.
 
The Don said:
Boris wades in again.



We're heading for a diamond hard Brexit :mad:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41441444

As others have said, it's all about the Tory leadership and **** the country
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I'm beginning to detect a change in the the flavour of the Tory infighting.

It seems more and more like Hammond is winning over support from Johnson. Even Davis seems more circumspect and concilliatory and Gove is hardly doing anything nutty at all (amazing, right)

I think Johnson has overplayed his hand and is going to find himself frozen out.

Also, please don't call Boris. It makes him sound like a cute and loveable teddy bear, rather than a backstabbing shyster who would throw his country under a bus to further his own political career. :)
 
Hubert Cumberdale said:
<snip>

Also, please don't call Boris. It makes him sound like a cute and loveable teddy bear, rather than a backstabbing shyster who would throw his country under a bus to further his own political career. :)
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It may be an American thing, or generational. Possibly both.

But whenever I hear the name I think "Badenov and Natasha", "Moose and Squirrel".

Boris_natasha_fearless.jpg


Also "Fearless Leader".
 
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It's probably a cultural thing.

Everyone calls him 'Boris' as if he's everyone's mate. An affable but eccentric character, bit of a Lad, likes the ladies *nudge nudge wink wink*, really clever guy though, likes to play the fool etc.
 
@quadraginta: you forgot the wodka vat that doubled as the first post-Soviet president of Russia.
 
Liam Fox promises that we will get 40 new trade deals outside the EU, the minute we leave:
http://uk.businessinsider.com/liam-...e-trade-deals-the-second-after-brexit-2017-10

While I hope he's right (surely he couldn't have legally got anything in writing, as we are still technically in the EU), we would still need a trade deal with the EU what with it being a major source of trade, and being rather close by.
 
wobs said:
Liam Fox promises that we will get 40 new trade deals outside the EU, the minute we leave:
http://uk.businessinsider.com/liam-...e-trade-deals-the-second-after-brexit-2017-10

While I hope he's right (surely he couldn't have legally got anything in writing, as we are still technically in the EU), we would still need a trade deal with the EU what with it being a major source of trade, and being rather close by.
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Still not sure if people like Fox/Davis/Johnson et al are genuinely deluded or actually postively being deciectful.
 
wobs said:
Liam Fox promises that we will get 40 new trade deals outside the EU, the minute we leave:
http://uk.businessinsider.com/liam-...e-trade-deals-the-second-after-brexit-2017-10

While I hope he's right (surely he couldn't have legally got anything in writing, as we are still technically in the EU), we would still need a trade deal with the EU what with it being a major source of trade, and being rather close by.
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Even if true, I wonder if the terms of those trade deals are better, the same, or worse than we enjoyed with those same countries/organisations while we have been in the EU.

Trade deals typically take years, if not decades, to thrash out. Unless the trade deals Liam Fox is promising are very narrow or very vague then the only way I can see it working is if 40 countries agree to deal with the UK on the same current terms as EU members (in which case we'll have the same deal, and be under the same obligations as an EU member).

That still leaves the thorny issue of divergence. If the EU updates their deal with one of those countries, will the UK have to follow suit ? This is a particularly thorny issue when it comes down to standards and certification. The UK sells widgets to Country X based on the Country X/EU widget standard. Country X and the EU comes to an agreement to update the widget standard, the UK has to follow suit or risk losing a market.

It also assumes that countries will be willing to roll deals over (it's interesting that the number quoted in this article from early September - 40 - is the same).

However, it could also signify resistance from “third countries” outside the EU to allow the U.K. to simply roll over the same terms and conditions negotiated by the EU, a bloc with almost seven times the number of consumers. Countries such as Japan, South Korea and Switzerland — significant economies with existing trade deals with Brussels — may hope to extract more concessions from the U.K. than they are able to from the EU.
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But likely he is full of it, and he knows it:

Fox, though, is adamant the future is positive for the U.K., even if new trading relationships take longer for his department to negotiate than first imagined.
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http://www.politico.eu/article/brex...n-does-not-have-capacity-to-strike-deals-now/


As ever, of course, the elephants in the room will be the EU and the US which between them account for 60% of UK exports.
 
The Don said:
Even if true, I wonder if the terms of those trade deals are better, the same, or worse than we enjoyed with those same countries/organisations while we have been in the EU.

Trade deals typically take years, if not decades, to thrash out. Unless the trade deals Liam Fox is promising are very narrow or very vague then the only way I can see it working is if 40 countries agree to deal with the UK on the same current terms as EU members (in which case we'll have the same deal, and be under the same obligations as an EU member).

That still leaves the thorny issue of divergence. If the EU updates their deal with one of those countries, will the UK have to follow suit ? This is a particularly thorny issue when it comes down to standards and certification. The UK sells widgets to Country X based on the Country X/EU widget standard. Country X and the EU comes to an agreement to update the widget standard, the UK has to follow suit or risk losing a market.
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The BusinessInsider link said:
The Secretary of State for International Trade insisted the UK would easily be able to copy and paste all 40 of the EU's external trade deals "the second after midnight" on Brexit day in March 2019.

"We're going to replicate the 40 EU free trade agreements that exist before we leave the European Union so we've got no disruption of trade," Fox told a Conservative party fringe event in Manchester.
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Copy & paste is the only way not to violate the EU treaties and still be able to do that "within seconds" of leaving the EU. And if he means it literally, it implies they're static and don't follow the EU trade arrangements.


The Don said:
It also assumes that countries will be willing to roll deals over (it's interesting that the number quoted in this article from early September - 40 - is the same).
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It's the number of EU trade deals. So he's confident he can replicate them all? I like to know what he's smoking.

The Don said:
http://www.politico.eu/article/brex...n-does-not-have-capacity-to-strike-deals-now/
As ever, of course, the elephants in the room will be the EU and the US which between them account for 60% of UK exports.
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From that link:
The U.K. and the U.S. have set up a trade working group to lay the groundwork for an agreement which could be signed soon after Britain’s exit in March 2019.
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Isn't that in violation with the EU treaties?
 
ddt said:
Isn't that in violation with the EU treaties?
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Don't know. I guess they're not actually agreeing a trade deal and signing on the dotted line, but Fox has been discussing trade deals for some time all over the world.

It sounds like he can talk about these things, but whether he get an agreement set up and signed, dated to start straight after Brexit is something that would need to be confirmed.
 
wobs said:
Don't know. I guess they're not actually agreeing a trade deal and signing on the dotted line, but Fox has been discussing trade deals for some time all over the world.

It sounds like he can talk about these things, but whether he get an agreement set up and signed, dated to start straight after Brexit is something that would need to be confirmed.
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"Talk" can still be dismissed as informal, but setting up a formal working group somehow feels like crossing a line.
 
ddt said:
The BusinessInsider link said:
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Sorry, I've got an ad-blocker and so that's one of many sites I cannot access. :o

I think that Liam Fox is out of his tiny mind if he think all 40 countries will give the UK the same sweet deal as the EU but in any case, we were repeatedly told that we would have better trade deals post-Brexit, not deals which are the same, but maybe a little bit worse :mad:

It's almost as if the whole Leave campaign and the entire Brexit process is completely riddled with lies......;)
 
So looks like food of the non chlorinated chicken kind may get cheaper post Brexit (it was very generous of all those Brexit voting farmers to vote against their economic interests). From the FT which requires registering and maybe a bit technical:

https://www.ft.com/content/92bb5636-a95b-11e7-ab55-27219df83c97

To summarise a number of WTO countries are objecting to the proposed splitting between the UK & EU of low tariff quotas on imports of their countries agricultural products as they may limit their ability to export at low tariff levels to the two.

Anyway if this happens the UK may have to accept lower tariffs than it wanted to on some agricultural imports. So good news on Brexit! (assuming you're ignore the wider context of countries (especially the US) not being willing to bend over backwards to give the UK everything it wants under WTO rules or you're a farmer).
 
The Don said:
I think that Liam Fox is out of his tiny mind if he think all 40 countries will give the UK the same sweet deal as the EU but in any case, we were repeatedly told that we would have better trade deals post-Brexit, not deals which are the same, but maybe a little bit worse :mad:
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Is he though?

I mean I really don't know anymore if the hard-brexiteers are really actually so deluded that they believe their own nonsense....

...or are they actually just plain old telling lies...?

It seems hard to imagine that they are actually just liars. They would have to know that they will be found out, and in spectacular fashion, in spring of 2019......

....so maybe they are just slightly unhinged?
 
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