Brexit: Now What? Part III

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The Don said:
Don't know whether this is true - it is after all a leaked report - but it seems that, post-Brexit, preference will be given to UK workers which means that:

  • Recruitment processes will likely be more expensive and take longer as firms have to jump through hurdles to demonstrate that there are no local candidates
  • The quality of the labour force will drop as employers are compelled to take less capable UK workers
  • Any hope of membership of EEA whether temporary or permanent goes out of the window

The BBC report refers to unskilled workers. I'm not sure whether skilled and semi-skilled workers will be exempt from the scheme, whether different restrictions will be applied or whether the government simply haven't got round to thinking properly about them.

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/newreply.php?do=postreply&t=316610

I'm sure that there are some benefits somewhere, but I'm struggling to find them :(
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It should be good news for the limited number of people in the Uk who have the skills employers need...provided their employer doesn't bugger off to Europe of course.
 
Archie Gemmill Goal said:
It should be good news for the limited number of people in the Uk who have the skills employers need...provided their employer doesn't bugger off to Europe of course.
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tbh people with in demand skills have done pretty well anyway. If employers have to pay more then they'll become internationally less competitive - and I thought the biggest benefit of Brexit would be that, free from the shackles of EU regulation - that the UK would become far more competitive globally :rolleyes:
 
ceptimus said:
Best thing the UK side could do now is walk away from time-wasting, so called, negotiations - tell the EU goodbye, WTO rules here we come, and we won't pay you a penny more than we're legally bound to.

Then we can wait for the EU to beg us to come back and negotiate a better deal.
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So you want the country to look like a bunch of untrustworthy *****?
 
GnaGnaMan said:
This is somewhat misleading. The freedom of movement still means first and foremost the free trade in labor. This hasn't changed. The 4 freedoms mean free trade in goods, capital, services, and labor.
You can't just settle anywhere and just collect social benefits
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Which all the figures suggest the vast majority of EU migrants weren't doing, anyway.
 
ceptimus said:
Best thing the UK side could do now is walk away from time-wasting, so called, negotiations - tell the EU goodbye, WTO rules here we come, and we won't pay you a penny more than we're legally bound to.

Then we can wait for the EU to beg us to come back and negotiate a better deal.
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Beg us, eh? If your plan depends on such behaviour on the part of Johnnie Foreigner, I think it's very dangerous. The other EU states may just bite the bullet of UKanian secession, and make do with the 27 countries left in the EU. Then what?

The arrogance displayed in your post may have made sense when the UK was economic world hegemon, and Bank of England notes were as good as gold. But those days have gone! And even if we can't be sensible, at least we can be polite.
 
If your friend moves into your house, complains loudly about the food, the décor and the house rules, despite being at the house meeting for each and every one and being granted special exemption from many of them, one does not, after they've left in a huff, beg them to come back.

The arrogance is astounding.
 
The Don said:
Don't know whether this is true - it is after all a leaked report - but it seems that, post-Brexit, preference will be given to UK workers which means that:

  • Recruitment processes will likely be more expensive and take longer as firms have to jump through hurdles to demonstrate that there are no local candidates
  • The quality of the labour force will drop as employers are compelled to take less capable UK workers
  • Any hope of membership of EEA whether temporary or permanent goes out of the window

The BBC report refers to unskilled workers. I'm not sure whether skilled and semi-skilled workers will be exempt from the scheme, whether different restrictions will be applied or whether the government simply haven't got round to thinking properly about them.

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/newreply.php?do=postreply&t=316610

I'm sure that there are some benefits somewhere, but I'm struggling to find them :(
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From the way May and co. talk about this you would think there are British workers lining up around the block to clean hospital wards or pick fruit. As has been pointed out repeatedly a lot of these 'unskilled' jobs are in parts of the country where unemployment is already low. Of course the government will probably just change the benefit rules so some poor SOB has to travel halfway across the country to live in some squalid B&B while earning minimum wage doing a seasonal job for which they are wholly unsuited. That will really kickstart the economy!
 
ceptimus said:
Best thing the UK side could do now is walk away from time-wasting, so called, negotiations - tell the EU goodbye, WTO rules here we come, and we won't pay you a penny more than we're legally bound to.

Then we can wait for the EU to beg us to come back and negotiate a better deal.
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This suggests that you believe in the "they need us, more than we need them" line of thinking. I've come across it a lot among Leavers, and I'm puzzled how such a belief could come about when their economy/population is far greater than ours, and so the impact on us would be far greater.

I have yet to come across a compelling reason why anyone would think that they would come begging for a deal.
 
Garrison said:
From the way May and co. talk about this you would think there are British workers lining up around the block to clean hospital wards or pick fruit. As has been pointed out repeatedly a lot of these 'unskilled' jobs are in parts of the country where unemployment is already low. Of course the government will probably just change the benefit rules so some poor SOB has to travel halfway across the country to live in some squalid B&B while earning minimum wage doing a seasonal job for which they are wholly unsuited. That will really kickstart the economy!
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It's nonsense that migrants 'only take jobs the Brits don't want' - there is competition in all sectors. The number of smaller employers who will take the cheaper option, means homegrown educated Brits lose out, or accept lower rates.

As it is a free market (to a large extent), then making supply of skills scarcer, means a premium for skilled workers who have worked hard for their skill.
 
Information Analyst said:
Most stuff that can be automated already has been.
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Everything there is to learn we already know?

There are still lots of tasks where people can't simply be replaced by a cheaper Agribot 3000™, because if they could be, they would have been already.
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Sure. Automation has reached its ultimate expression.

Obviously there is no room for any progress on this front.

:rolleyes:
 
Vixen said:
It's nonsense that migrants 'only take jobs the Brits don't want' - there is competition in all sectors. The number of smaller employers who will take the cheaper option, means homegrown educated Brits lose out, or accept lower rates.

As it is a free market (to a large extent), then making supply of skills scarcer, means a premium for skilled workers who have worked hard for their skill.
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True as stated, but that isn't really what's being discussed in relation to Garrison's point about work in agriculture and hospitality etc.

There are jobs that Brits don't want to do but migrants are perfectly willing to do. Fruit picking, hotel room cleaning and the like. The fact that Brits compete freely with migrants in computer programming and architecture isn't what's under discussion.

Brits don't compete with Romanians in the vegetable field simply because Brits don't want to do that work. And if the Romanians quit it doesn't mean the pay for lettuce-picking will rise until Brits are attracted to it, as the lettuces just aren't worth enough.
 
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Vixen said:
It's nonsense that migrants 'only take jobs the Brits don't want' - there is competition in all sectors. The number of smaller employers who will take the cheaper option, means homegrown educated Brits lose out, or accept lower rates.
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Anecdotally that may be what has happened (or you feel has happened) to you but looking at the salaries for skilled people, in the economy as a whole that doesn't seem to be the case - they have outpaced inflation. In part this is because the ready availability of skilled employees has resulted in expansion in many industry sectors.

Vixen said:
As it is a free market (to a large extent), then making supply of skills scarcer, means a premium for skilled workers who have worked hard for their skill.
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Which does not benefit the economy as a whole - higher wages leading to higher costs and inflationary pressures which in turn makes UK goods and services less competitive at home and abroad - or for the individuals with those skills - companies will seek to expand in markets where there is a ready supply of those skills so there will be fewer of those jobs.

That sentence does however nicely summarise the selfishness (I want higher wages and **** the rest of you) and economic illiteracy (not understanding the wider implications of a skills-constrained economy) which together with xenophobia underpinned the Brexit campaign and the Leave process.
 
Vixen said:
It's nonsense that migrants 'only take jobs the Brits don't want' - there is competition in all sectors. The number of smaller employers who will take the cheaper option, means homegrown educated Brits lose out, or accept lower rates.

As it is a free market (to a large extent), then making supply of skills scarcer, means a premium for skilled workers who have worked hard for their skill.
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It's nonsense that Vince Cable says every study carried out proved though. And Theresa May insisted the results be suppressed because they didn't fit her narrative.

Engineering skills shortages to inflate wages for a few isn't really a good way to run an economy anyway.
 
GlennB said:
True as stated, but that isn't really what's being discussed in relation to Garrison's point about work in agriculture and hospitality etc.

There are jobs that Brits don't want to do but migrants are perfectly willing to do. Fruit picking, hotel room cleaning and the like. The fact that Brits compete freely with migrants in computer programming and architecture isn't what's under discussion.

Brits don't compete with Romanians in the vegetable field simply because Brits don't want to do that work. And if the Romanians quit it doesn't mean the pay for lettuce-picking will rise until Brits are attracted to it, as the lettuces just aren't worth enough.
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Unless you slap punitive import duties on lettuces and we all end up paying a fiver a head down tescos.
 
This BBC story suggests that the EU are pushing for a different Brexit deal for Northern Ireland than for the rest of the UK. This could be an enormous fillip for the NI economy as UK businesses seek to set up in NI to get access to the EU.

It could also mean that NI becomes the focus for smuggling, people and/or goods, into the UK.

The European Union wants Northern Ireland to have a different Brexit deal to the rest of the UK, papers seen by the BBC suggest.

The document says the UK should take responsibility for finding a "unique solution" so people can work, go to school or get medical treatment either side of the Irish border.
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41183041
 
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