Hey guys I have a theory:
1. According to Jabba, we each should have only one specific sense of self, at most -- "OSSoSam."
2. This sense of self is linked with a *specific* physical form when that form is alive.
3. The sense of self is a specific configuration of an infinitely-divisible grand conciousness.
4. Under that hypothesis, Jabba's current existence is EXTREMELY unlikely.
5. But here he is!
6. Given the "right" conditions, the fact that Jabba does currently exist is EXTREMELY strong evidence that OSSoSam is wrong.
7. Often, however, all of the alternative possible results/events produced by the particular situation are extremely unlikely -- in such a case, the unlikelihood of the particular event produced is not evidence against the hypothesis.
8. In such a case, in order to be evidence against the hypothesis, the particular event needs to be "set apart" from most of the other possible results in a way that is meaningful to the particular hypothesis. A good example is when a lottery is won by the second cousin of the lottery controller.
9. Consequently, in order for Jabba's current existence to be evidence against OSSoSam, he needs to be set apart in a way meaningful to OSSoSam.
10. That is the case.
11. To formally re-evaluate OSSoSam, we can use the following formula from Bayesian statistics: P(H|E)=P(E|H)*P(H)/(P(E|H)*P(H)+P(E|~H)*P(~H)).
12. There are 3 variables in that formula -- we've already discussed P(E|H), the likelihood of the event occurring, given H (OOFLam).
13. Another variable is the prior probability of H (and ~H).
14. There is a reasonable probability of at least 1% for ~H -- and therefore, no more than 99% for H.
15. The remaining variable is P(E|~H), the likelihood of the event occurring, given ~H. For now, I'll suggest 99%.
16. Inserting the numbers, we get that the posterior probability of H, after adding E to the evidence is: P(H|E)=10-100*.99/(10-100*.99+.99*.01). And rounding off, we get P(H|E)=0/.099, or zero.
17. So, by adding this new info to the evidence for H and rounding off, we get that the probability of H being true is zero.
What do you think?