Brexit: Now What? Part III

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Looks like the UK isn't really ready for Brexit negotiations:

1. There's a sense that the government has just not made enough of the big decisions to allow the talks to really get going. One source told me "I've got nothing to say" when talking to EU counterparts, because ministers haven't got to the stage yet of being clear about the detail of what they want.
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2. There's concern the reticence is because Number 10, in particular, has just not made it clear what they actually want, and where the PM might be willing to compromise.
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3. This lack of pace therefore makes, it's feared, the possibility of crashing out, or the talks breaking down in the autumn more likely.
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40655843

If it's even close to being true - it's really, really frightening :(
 
The Don said:
Looks like the UK isn't really ready for Brexit negotiations:







http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40655843

If it's even close to being true - it's really, really frightening :(
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German N24 this afternoon stated that the banks in the City of London are hoping for a clear picture to come out at the end of "round 2" tomorrow.
It added that Deutsche Bank is considering moving 9,000 employees to Frankfurt.

https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article166803811/Der-Brexit-bringt-nur-Nachteile.html - See video.
 
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The Don said:
Looks like the UK isn't really ready for Brexit negotiations:







http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40655843

If it's even close to being true - it's really, really frightening :(
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It tallies with the gossip I saw on badscience:




Interesting and smoking titbit I heard this morning.
A friend who used to work in the FCO still has many friends there, and who have been seconded to departments like dexeu.
All the civil servants are aghast at how thick and bumptious* Davis and Fox are, and my friend was told "Davis doesn't know what he doesn't know and Fox doesn't want to know what he doesn't know."
Bodes well.

*which my phone wanted to autocorrupt to bump tits
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The Don said:
If it's even close to being true - it's really, really frightening :(
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It's not really surprising you have a divided cabinet and a wafer thin majority that could be torpedoed by a handful of disgruntled backbenchers. A clear statement of May's goals for Brexit could crash her government.
 
Garrison said:
It's not really surprising you have a divided cabinet and a wafer thin majority that could be torpedoed by a handful of disgruntled backbenchers. A clear statement of May's goals for Brexit could crash her government.
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.....and to fail to do so could crash the country :(

This of course presumes that she has a set of coherent goals which are not contradictory - I'm not sure that is the case, especially considering the DUP's desire for an open border with Ireland.
 
The Don said:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40655843

If it's even close to being true - it's really, really frightening :(
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If things do not clear out very soon it won't matter if it's anywhere close to being true. Businesses won't wait until they hear the bad news, they will prepare for the worst-case scenario and move elsewhere whenever possible. A sad reality for UK is that your chief export - financial services - are comparatively easy to move and there are plenty of contenders with the infrastructure to take it.

In short, unless Team May Not makes another U-turn very soon, UK will pay the price of a diamond-hard Brexit regardless of what will happen in the end.

McHrozni
 
McHrozni said:
If things do not clear out very soon it won't matter if it's anywhere close to being true. Businesses won't wait until they hear the bad news, they will prepare for the worst-case scenario and move elsewhere whenever possible. A sad reality for UK is that your chief export - financial services - are comparatively easy to move and there are plenty of contenders with the infrastructure to take it.

In short, unless Team May Not makes another U-turn very soon, UK will pay the price of a diamond-hard Brexit regardless of what will happen in the end.

McHrozni
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This supports my theory that this is what the May government wants, an absolute omnishambles Brexit with the worst possible outcome so that the Dunkirk spirit is engaged and the great British public don't question how we got into this mess :mad:

They're making it a fiasco so that they get the diamond hard Brexit they want but they don't get blamed for the inevitably bad consequences....
 
The Don said:
This supports my theory that this is what the May government wants, an absolute omnishambles Brexit with the worst possible outcome so that the Dunkirk spirit is engaged and the great British public don't question how we got into this mess :mad:

They're making it a fiasco so that they get the diamond hard Brexit they want but they don't get blamed for the inevitably bad consequences....
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That is one rather grim possibility, yes. I still hope my hypothesis is correct, for your sake :o On the other hand, Hanlons' razor might also apply. It could all be nothing more than incompetence.

If you add these two together you get a compelling new hypothesis that I also mentioned earlier: they wanted to stop Brexit by ensuring they took all the wrong steps. Then Corbyn didn't want to cooperate and supported the A50 bill. The events after that undermine the hypothesis somewhat, but maybe that was when they decided to go along with Brexit after all.

It would fit well with the fact they were unable to set priorities straight in over a year - they couldn't because they didn't even start working on it until March or April of this year.

McHrozni
 
The Don said:
This supports my theory that this is what the May government wants, an absolute omnishambles Brexit with the worst possible outcome so that the Dunkirk spirit is engaged and the great British public don't question how we got into this mess :mad:

They're making it a fiasco so that they get the diamond hard Brexit they want but they don't get blamed for the inevitably bad consequences....
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It more or less confirms my theory that the Tories couldn't give a flying ◊◊◊◊ about the good of the country and are solely interested in what is best for the Tory Party in the short term.

And that they aren't even very good at achieving that.

You get the feeling that if the EU turned round tomorrow and said 'we will give you everything you want, just write down what you want and we will agree to it' they still couldn't get a negotiation over the line.
 
Archie Gemmill Goal said:
It more or less confirms my theory that the Tories couldn't give a flying ◊◊◊◊ about the good of the country and are solely interested in what is best for the Tory Party in the short term.
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tbh, I think that applies to politicians generally - even people generally. Although people say a lot about doing things for the common good or the good of the country, eventually it comes down to individual good, of the good of a very narrow group IMO.

Archie Gemmill Goal said:
And that they aren't even very good at achieving that.
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True.

Archie Gemmill Goal said:
You get the feeling that if the EU turned round tomorrow and said 'we will give you everything you want, just write down what you want and we will agree to it' they still couldn't get a negotiation over the line.
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I think you're right. There are factions within the Tory party with fundamentally different, and completely incompatible, objectives.
 
The Don said:
tbh, I think that applies to politicians generally - even people generally. Although people say a lot about doing things for the common good or the good of the country, eventually it comes down to individual good, of the good of a very narrow group IMO.
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To an extent you're both correct. Politicians do work along the lines of self-interest as well as the common good, if it suits them. Because the common good takes a while to filter to benefit the politicians is usually preffered by politicians who tihnk long-term, whose self-interest can wait until the common good gave them enough political points to help themselves as well.

Tories in general think on a more short-term basis which is why they do less on the common good than other politicians might.

McHrozni
 
And Liam Fox, the international trade secretary and another of the cabinet’s “three Brexiteers”, is out and about. He is giving a speech in Geneva, and was on the Today programme earlier. He was asked if he agreed with Philip Hammond, the chancellor, that leaving the EU with no deal would be “a very, very bad outcome”. Fox’s interpretation was slightly different. He said:

Well, we don’t want to have no deal. It is much better that we have a deal than no deal. We can, of course, survive with no deal, and we have to go into a negotiation with those on the other side knowing that that is what we think.
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https://www.theguardian.com/politic...it-has-to-leave-eu-with-no-deal-politics-live

"Hard Brexit" has gone from being a smashing success to something that Britain will survive rather than collapsing into a Somalia like anarchy.
 
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The Don said:
This supports my theory that this is what the May government wants, an absolute omnishambles Brexit with the worst possible outcome so that the Dunkirk spirit is engaged and the great British public don't question how we got into this mess :mad:

They're making it a fiasco so that they get the diamond hard Brexit they want but they don't get blamed for the inevitably bad consequences....
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That would require the May government to be capable of formulating a strategy, an extraordinary claim for which extraordinary proof would be required.;)

Arcade22 said:
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...it-has-to-leave-eu-with-no-deal-politics-live

"Hard Brexit" has gone from being a smashing success to something that Britain will survive rather than collapsing into a Somalia like anarchy.
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One of the links in that article led to this:

Theresa May set for three-week hiking trip to Italy and Switzerland

Theresa May is planning to take three weeks of holiday in northern Italy and Switzerland this summer, without naming a cabinet minister to be in charge during her lengthy absence from No 10.
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So no one will be in charge while she's away, no different from when she's at home then....
 
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jimbob said:
This is interesting - not the story, but the headline and the source

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/831011/uk-usa-trade-deal-brexit-jeremy-corbyn-donald-trump
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IMO this is the Daily Express ensuring that its readership are fully and completely in favour of a diamond hard Brexit by ensuring that they associate an alternative with the devil (and fool) incarnate, Jeremy Corbyn.

If Corbyn says that no deal with the EU and a deal with the US would be a race to the bottom then by definition, it must be the bestest thing evah :rolleyes:
 
The Don said:
IMO this is the Daily Express ensuring that its readership are fully and completely in favour of a diamond hard Brexit by ensuring that they associate an alternative with the devil (and fool) incarnate, Jeremy Corbyn.

If Corbyn says that no deal with the EU and a deal with the US would be a race to the bottom then by definition, it must be the bestest thing evah :rolleyes:
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The 'lefty Brexit' position was always farcical to begin with and doesn't get any better when it comes to implement the details.

Just another example of Labour types voting for something that wasn't on the menu then complaining when they get what they actually voted for - c.f. DevoMax.
 
Archie Gemmill Goal said:
The 'lefty Brexit' position was always farcical to begin with and doesn't get any better when it comes to implement the details.
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I'm not even sure what the "lefty Brexit" position is/was tbh, though I expect like the more mainstream "righty Brexit" it's actually a range of things to different groups, each potentially mutually incompatible.

I presume that "lefty Brexit" includes remaining in the EEA, allowing free movement of people, retaining the ECHR and so on which I suppose raises the question of what would it actually involve ?

I realise that there may be a desire to have less protectionist trade relationships with developing nations - but that may not be possible if we're in the EEA. There's also the ability to lower VAT on tampons but then again that too may be incompatible with remaining in the EEA. That aside, I'm not sure what the motivation(s) might be :confused:


edited to add....

I was wrong, according to Frank Field the "lefty Brexit" includes controls on EU immigration - again incompatible with EEA membership.
 
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The Don said:
I'm not even sure what the "lefty Brexit" position is/was tbh, though I expect like the more mainstream "righty Brexit" it's actually a range of things to different groups, each potentially mutually incompatible.

I presume that "lefty Brexit" includes remaining in the EEA, allowing free movement of people, retaining the ECHR and so on which I suppose raises the question of what would it actually involve ?

I realise that there may be a desire to have less protectionist trade relationships with developing nations - but that may not be possible if we're in the EEA. There's also the ability to lower VAT on tampons but then again that too may be incompatible with remaining in the EEA. That aside, I'm not sure what the motivation(s) might be :confused:


edited to add....

I was wrong, according to Frank Field the "lefty Brexit" includes controls on EU immigration - again incompatible with EEA membership.
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The basic position seemed to be that the EU is capitalist therefore we should leave the EU and create some kind of socialist utopia. Therefore they voted to empower the hard right to take charge and run the country into the ground and crush any protections that workers had thanks to being part of the EU while also tanking the economy that pays workers wages.

Free movement of people is a capitalist idea that lets people come here and 'take our jobs' thus suppressing wages and raising unemployment apparently.
 
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