Matt Rouge on Why Skeptics will never accept the existence of psi

[Pixel42]

Nope. A skeptic's working assumption is that we don't know whether the claim is true or false. You're just doing the believer thing but from the other side.

A: "psi does not exist."
Skeptic: "is there evidence of that claim?"
A: "no."
Skeptic: "then the claim is assumed to be false, ie psi is assumed to exist."

See the problem?

See my subsequent posts.

 

[Darat]

I was making a point, but you're right. Claims about psi powers are different than claims about history. Let's try a different claim:

"Aliens with psi powers exist somewhere in the universe."

What do you think? Definitely false? Probably false? Probably true? 50/50?

You would need to define your terms before the question becomes meaningful.

 

[caveman1917]

See my subsequent posts.

I have.

Your first subsequent post is wrong in the same way (ie that's not a skeptical position but a believer position, just because the belief is in the negation of the claim doesn't stop it from being a belief without evidence).

Your second subsequent post mostly seems confused about what a null hypothesis is. We can always construct a null hypothesis, it's called a null hypothesis for a reason.

All in all, nope, you're a believer

 

[caveman1917]

Here's how to do it correctly:

I was making a point, but you're right. Claims about psi powers are different than claims about history. Let's try a different claim:

"Aliens with psi powers exist somewhere in the universe."

What do you think? Definitely false? Probably false? Probably true? 50/50?

Answer: There is no correlation between variable A which is 1 when we choose the universe, and variable B which is 1 when that which is pointed at by A contains aliens with psi powers. That is, the answer is the null hypothesis (ie no correlation). Slightly less precise, that would be the "50/50" answer.

Here are some versions of believer answers:

- A is perfectly positively correlated with B, ie when A is 1 then B is 1. Or in words "aliens with psi powers exist in the universe".

- A is perfectly negatively correlated with B, ie when A is 1 then B is 0. Or in words "it is false that aliens with psi powers exist in the universe".

The first would be a skeptical position, the latter two would be respectively the believer and denier (which is also a believer, just believer in the negation of the claim) positions.

 

[fuelair]

If it is possible consistent psychic powers exist, why should we conclude they don't exist? Are you agnostic about their existence? Most skeptics are convinced they don't exist.

No physical, chemical or other indication that it actually exists and physics as we know it so far makes no provision for psychic powers/effects. Pretty much tosses it in the Dumpster of Silly and/or Mendacious Ideas!!!!!

Hope this helps!!!!!

 

[Darat]

Here's how to do it correctly:

...snip...

The first would be a skeptical position, the latter two would be respectively the believer and denier (which is also a believer, just believer in the negation of the claim) positions.

The skeptical viewpoint would be not to form any answer until the bloody question has meaning!

 

[caveman1917]

Hawks back to comments I made on this site many, many moons ago. If PSI worked the military would be using it, there is nothing that humanity has ever invented or has any ability to do that hasn't been exploited by our military over the years.

And no it could not be secret as every military, insurgency, terrorist group and so on would be using it.

Huh...

According to the Pentagon, the program was born of field reports from the war theater, including a 2006 incident in Iraq, when Staff Sergeant Martin Richburg, using intuition, prevented carnage in an IED, or improvised explosive device, incident. Commander Joseph Cohn, a program manager at the naval office, told the New York Times, “These reports from the field often detailed a ‘sixth sense’ or ‘Spidey sense’ that alerted them to an impending attack or I.E.D., or that allowed them to respond to a novel situation without consciously analyzing the situation.”

More than a decade later, today’s Defense Department has accelerated practical applications of this concept. Active-duty Marines are being taught to hone precognitive skills in order to “preempt snipers, IED emplacers and other irregular assaults [using] advanced perceptual competences that have not been well studied.”

 

[caveman1917]

The skeptical viewpoint would be not to form any answer until the bloody question has meaning!

Interestingly enough, no. The claims involved merely need to be sentences, not necessarily meaningful ones. Suppose the first claim is "qqhjfd lffgd hjsugr lkrgiovdnqs" and the second claim is "mogf whd so mvfd, sjdf" then the skeptical position is P(claim 1) = P(claim 2).

 

[Darat]

Huh...

Which has what to do with my statement you posted?

Interestingly enough, no. The claims involved merely need to be sentences, not necessarily meaningful ones. Suppose the first claim is "qqhjfd lffgd hjsugr lkrgiovdnqs" and the second claim is "mogf whd so mvfd, sjdf" then the skeptical position is P(claim 1) = P(claim 2).

That is rather silly.

 

[BStrong]

Do I believe that people have experiences they can't accurately explain? Yes.

Do I believe that the explanation for these experiences is PSI? No.

I've had some experiences where I "knew" something when I had no actual evidence in hand to support my perception. As the situation developed, I was correct in my SWAG - Scientific Wild-Ass Guess.

Rather than believing I have psychic powers. I believe that the circumstances in the moment triggered a thought based on past experiences in similar situations.

Not exciting or fun, but there it is.

 

[caveman1917]

Which has what to do with my statement you posted?

You're saying you can not connect the following statements in some logical manner?

If PSI worked the military would be using it

Active-duty Marines are being taught to hone precognitive skills

That's...interesting. Ok, I'll give you the answer: you need a better argument, your argument only works if the military were not using it.

That is rather silly.

It's also rather right. The claims don't need to be meaningful, they merely need to be able to be either true or false.

 

[Bladesman87]

If it is possible consistent psychic powers exist, why should we conclude they don't exist?

We haven't concluded that it's even possible yet. But it's not like we don't have any conclusions about psychic powers. We know plenty about fakes and their methodology. We have knowledge when it comes to objects that can interact as to how they interact such that we could speculatively look for similar potential for "psi".

Are you agnostic about their existence? Most skeptics are convinced they don't exist.

You'd have to unpack exactly what meaning of agnostic you're implying. If you mean that I have don't absolute certainty then I'm agnostic about almost everything. If you mean I can never have absolute certainty about psychics, then the same.

If where you're heading is simply to point out that psychic powers may be possible but also may be impossible, then this isn't very interesting to me. It's just word play about what credence I assign to ideas and beliefs.

All you end up doing is forcing me to clarify my position as follows: I have no good reason to believe that psychic powers are either possible or actually exist. I'm fine for most uses in phrasing this as "I think it's all bs".

I have, relatively speaking, a fairly low bar for what would constitute good evidence. My open-mindedness isn't a problem here. The problem is a bunch of people keep claiming powers that they can't ever demonstrate with even basic controls in place.

 

[Aepervius]

Nope. A skeptic's working assumption is that we don't know whether the claim is true or false. You're just doing the believer thing but from the other side.

A: "psi does not exist."
Skeptic: "is there evidence of that claim?"
A: "no."
Skeptic: "then the claim is assumed to be false, ie psi is assumed to exist."

See the problem?

Hurm. No. We are not starting from nothing, we are starting from "entity does not exisrs" if only out of üarcimony in some case where all is unknown, but it aint even the case here.

You are simply assumig an implied 50/50 where there is none.

 

[caveman1917]

we are starting from "entity does not exisrs"

Yes that's why you're believers rather than skeptics.

 

[Darat]

You're saying you can not connect the following statements in some logical manner?




That's...interesting. Ok, I'll give you the answer: you need a better argument, your argument only works if the military were not using it.

There was no mention in the article you linked to that was about "psi" as it was used by Matt Rouge. So no there was no logical link.

It's also rather right. The claims don't need to be meaningful, they merely need to be able to be either true or false.

Donec vulputate quam at ex convallis bibendum. Sed eleifend tristique turpis. Cras turpis erat, ornare tincidunt varius at, commodo faucibus urna. Nullam blandit sapien pulvinar elit tempor, at laoreet dui facilisis. Nulla facilisi. Suspendisse ut purus finibus, iaculis enim sit.

And your position on the above claim is?

 

[Pixel42]

Here's how to do it correctly:

Having observed your (unsuccessful) attempts to undermine JayUtah's arguments in Jabba's Immortality thread I have no interest in entering a discussion with you, so I will say only that I do not accept your correction.

 

[caveman1917]

There was no mention in the article you linked to that was about "psi" as it was used by Matt Rouge. So no there was no logical link.

Training precognitive skills to use a sixth sense so as to predict IEDs and such...sounds pretty "psi" to me anyway.

The cool bit being that the way out here is to acknowledge that the military is stupid and that what they do or don't do means jack ****, ie you need a better argument.

Donec vulputate quam at ex convallis bibendum. Sed eleifend tristique turpis. Cras turpis erat, ornare tincidunt varius at, commodo faucibus urna. Nullam blandit sapien pulvinar elit tempor, at laoreet dui facilisis. Nulla facilisi. Suspendisse ut purus finibus, iaculis enim sit.

And your position on the above claim is?

That I have no evidence to prefer it over its negation nor vice versa, ergo P(claim) = P(not claim).

 

[caveman1917]

Having observed your (unsuccessful) attempts to undermine JayUtah's arguments in Jabba's Immortality thread I have no interest in entering a discussion with you

If you think that was unsuccessful then you shouldn't, it'd be too boring, and you'd probably get annoying pretty fast with things like implying that 1 + 1 equals 3 or such - because that's what JayUtah's latest in that thread implies, among other things.

so I will say only that I do not accept your correction.

Believers never do. Interestingly, I haven't been able to catch JayUtah in any such "believer errors", it's just that his math is so deplorably bad. Over 5 years of this you'd think the guy would've bothered reading a damn probability textbook.

 

[Darat]

Training precognitive skills to use a sixth sense so as to predict IEDs and such...sounds pretty "psi" to me anyway.

Ah I see you are using a different definition of "psi" that was introduced at the start of this thread. You are of course fine to redefine "psi" however you wish - I'll just continue to use it how it was introduced at the start of the thread.

The cool bit being that the way out here is to acknowledge that the military is stupid and that what they do or don't do means jack ****, ie you need a better argument.

You need to do research into humanity's military history and what has been developed technology wise over all of recorded human history as you obvious have a very poor grasp of such history.

That I have no evidence to prefer it over its negation nor vice versa, ergo P(claim) = P(not claim).

But using my special definition of words I was saying "the sun is a star" - so you are saying that you think it is only 50/50 that the sun is a star! Amazing.

 

[Dr.Sid]

Well Randi's 10 millions are still safely sitting in the safe, right ..

EDIT: oh I see they stopped it .. pity ..