Corbyn's days (very) numbered?

[Matthew Best]

And if I hadn't been wrong, I would have been right too!

 

[CapelDodger]

The victory isn't Corbyn's, it was May's disastrous, arrogant campaign that allowed Labour to gain 30 seats. Without that I would have been right.

Don't discount May's manifesto.

The problem is May. Replace her with the right person and the problem goes away.

 

[CapelDodger]

And if I hadn't been wrong, I would have been right too!

Be fair, who knew the awfulness of May would so eclipse the dreadfullness of Corbyn, notorious friend of Fenians and unrepentant socialist?

There was nothing inept about the right-wing media assault on Corbyn, and it fell absolutely flat. As long as Tories keep blaming things on May's affect they won't recognise the actual problem.

 

[MCel58]

The victory isn't Corbyn's, it was May's disastrous, arrogant campaign that allowed Labour to gain 30 seats. Without that I would have been right.

Actually Corbyn's achievement was in getting young people interested enough in politics to come out and vote. Yes he promised them things in the same way that the Tories have been promising the grey vote things for the last 2 elections to ensure their vote. That was May's failure that she forgot her vote relied on keeping the grey vote onside which she managed to destroy in 1 day with her "dementia tax" manifesto. Every party promises to spend more on its key voters. What we should consider is that Labour has started to build longevity into their vote by concentrating on the young vote.

 

[Craig B]

Or 'they' could try reading the sentence with particular relation to the 'and'. Defy expectations and actually achieve something, which means that he did defy expectations but achieved nothing. Sorry that your in-depth research amounted to nothing in the end.

That is a "disingenuous" interpretation of the expression you used. Defy expectations and actually achieve something means that the expectations are defied by the thing achieved. Corbyn was expected to preside over the destruction of his party and the concession of a substantial overall majority to the Tories. He defied these expectations and achieved a hung parliament which you for one didn't predict. So your sudden concentration on "and" is hogwash. Even some Blairites are admitting, I was wrong.

Do thou therefore like unto them.

 

[Garrison]

Actually Corbyn's achievement was in getting young people interested enough in politics to come out and vote. Yes he promised them things in the same way that the Tories have been promising the grey vote things for the last 2 elections to ensure their vote. That was May's failure that she forgot her vote relied on keeping the grey vote onside which she managed to destroy in 1 day with her "dementia tax" manifesto. Every party promises to spend more on its key voters. What we should consider is that Labour has started to build longevity into their vote by concentrating on the young vote.

And of course we know that Theresa May wouldn't bribe the voters, she needs the money to bribe the DUP.

 

[Mikemcc]

Actually Corbyn's achievement was in getting young people interested enough in politics to come out and vote. Yes he promised them things in the same way that the Tories have been promising the grey vote things for the last 2 elections to ensure their vote. That was May's failure that she forgot her vote relied on keeping the grey vote onside which she managed to destroy in 1 day with her "dementia tax" manifesto. Every party promises to spend more on its key voters. What we should consider is that Labour has started to build longevity into their vote by concentrating on the young vote.

Until they get voted in and find they can't afford the wish list that they have promised everyone, especially young students. Labour have the benefit at the moment in that they can promise anything, because they aren't in power and having to face the reality of funding it.

 

[Mikemcc]

And of course we know that Theresa May wouldn't bribe the voters, she needs the money to bribe the DUP.

Yep, which will come out of existing budgets, or passed on to our kids and grandkids to repay.

 

[Mikemcc]

If anything it's now McDonnell that is trying to shoot the Labour party in the foot now that Diane Abbott has been side-lined.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...ed-by-political-decisions-says-john-mcdonnell

 

[funk de fino]

Until they get voted in and find they can't afford the wish list that they have promised everyone, especially young students. Labour have the benefit at the moment in that they can promise anything, because they aren't in power and having to face the reality of funding it.

Last time they were in it was pretty much 10 years of stable economy. No boom and bust. Arguably the bust that came was because of a global phenomena that would have hurt the UK whoever was in power.

I'd take a chance on that 10 years again before sticking with May and her clowns.

Their manifesto also seem to have less holes in it from a financial standpoint than the Tory one. Which is pretty unusual

 

[Darat]

Well credit where credit is due, if it wasn't for the tight control on spending by the Tories we wouldn't have been able to pay off the deficit and now be reducing the national debt....

 

[Garrison]

Well credit where credit is due, if it wasn't for the tight control on spending by the Tories we wouldn't have been able to pay off the deficit and now be reducing the national debt....

Yeah if austerity were actually working then complaining about Labour's plans might make sense. As it is the Tories have run public services into the ground without any evidence it's bolstered government finances one iota. if we're going to run up the debt anyway might as well do it fixing our hospitals and giving people a decent education without leaving them indebted for life.

 

[The Don]

Yeah if austerity were actually working then complaining about Labour's plans might make sense. As it is the Tories have run public services into the ground without any evidence it's bolstered government finances one iota. if we're going to run up the debt anyway might as well do it fixing our hospitals and giving people a decent education without leaving them indebted for life.

That presumes that the latter was the motivation for the former as opposed to the motivation being that public services are better delivered by the private or charity sectors and/or that the provision of such services encourages their use which in turn reduces the motivation to work hard for a living

 

[Garrison]

Remember all those terrible ideas of Corbyn's that would bankrupt the country because there's no 'magic money tree'? Seems the Tories are desperately searching for it:

Listen to review bodies on public sector pay, says Gove

The government should listen to review bodies' recommendations for public sector pay, Michael Gove has said.
His comments come as the prime minister and chancellor face increasing pressure from ministers and backbenchers to end the 1% public sector pay cap.
The environment secretary did not call directly for the cap to be lifted but said ministers should respect the "integrity" of the pay review process.

Top Tories in revolt against May over public spending

Theresa May is facing a chorus of Tory demands for a radical overhaul of state funding for public services as cabinet ministers and senior Conservative MPs back higher pay for millions of NHS workers, more cash for schools and a “national debate” on student debt.

Exclusive: Education Secretary wants £1.2bn extra on schools after 'election austerity backlash'

Justine Greening, the Education Secretary, has informed the Prime Minister that she wants the Tories to abandon plans to cut per pupil funding over the coming years.*

Shake that tree hard!

 

[Matthew Best]

A YouGov poll for The Times put Labour eight points ahead of the Conservatives. The poll puts Labour on 46 per cent, the Tories on 38 per cent, the Liberal Democrats on six per cent and Ukip on four per cent.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/07/06/voting-intention-conservatives-38-labour-46-5-6-ju/

Looks like Corbyn's days aren't quite as numbered as people here thought.

 

[a_unique_person]

A YouGov poll for The Times put Labour eight points ahead of the Conservatives. The poll puts Labour on 46 per cent, the Tories on 38 per cent, the Liberal Democrats on six per cent and Ukip on four per cent.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/07/06/voting-intention-conservatives-38-labour-46-5-6-ju/

Looks like Corbyn's days aren't quite as numbered as people here thought.

They are numbered. There is just disagreement about the number.

 

[Matthew Best]

They are numbered. There is just disagreement about the number.

Let me re-phrase then: the number isn't as low as quite a few people here thought.

 

[Garrison]

Let me re-phrase then: the number isn't as low as quite a few people here thought.

Me included. There were four basic reasons I assumed he would be a disaster:

1) The civil war in the PLP would tear the party apart during an election campaign.

WRONG because: After the failed effort to oust him most MPs had simply resigned themselves to disaster, when the poll number turned around they by and large had the good sense to stay quiet.

2) He was a terrible campaigner, he would never be able to connect with the wider public.

WRONG because: Once he got media coverage outside of attack pieces in the Daily Mail the voters saw a different side of Corbyn, couple this with an epically bad Tory campaign and Labour started to rise in the polls, which increased confidence, which is probably why Corbyn changed his mind and turned up for the TV debate.

3) All those new young voters he claimed he was attracting would follow the usual pattern and disappear when an actual election came around.

WRONG because: Well it seems those young voters had genuinely had enough of being ignored. A lot of them may have been motivated by what happened in the Brexit referendum, it may also have helped that the election came much sooner than expected and so their initial enthusiasm for Corby hadn't had time to cool off.

4) His political baggage, the IRA, the Falklands, etc. would be used to damage him during the campaign.

WRONG because: Yes that history was trotted out and those young voters just shrugged and ignored it. The simple fact is that things that are a part of my memories and have an emotional resonance are simply a piece of history to a lot of voters, from our current perspective Corbyn talking to Adams and McGuinness just isn't that shocking.