Brexit: Now What? Part III

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ddt said:
No but two of the four examples of successful British rule given in that "Yes Prime Minister" clip you posted were islands - Cyprus and Ireland, the other two being India and Palestine.
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I know - my bad. It is as if the UK would not do that to any mainland countries.
 
jimbob said:
That would involve having a plan.
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Darat said:
And people capable of carrying out that plan.
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Although this exchange in Badscience, which includes two people who claim to know Civil Servants involved in Brexit planning (I think I have filtered out all the swears) would suggest that if we just left the negotiations to the Civil servants, they might get a bit more done - as long as they have some consistent guidance.

mikeh said:
egbert25 said:
Opti-mystic said:
This whole government **** reminds me so much of the time that I did my arms folded, look grumpy campaign in my little rural town. I ended up having face to face talks with various elected councillors under the misapprehension that I would be talking to eloquent, educated, intelligent and erudite people. My very first meeting made me understand that that was not true.
It appears that this holds true however far up the pole you travel.

We're governed by ***** imbeciles.
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A couple of months ago I was talking to an economist who is educated to PhD level and works in the Civil Service in financial planning. They are involved in the fun fun fun task of Brexit. They heartily concur with your conclusion. Especially that David Davis character.
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I know a few folks in the civil service (who are all very clever, very good pragmatic people and if allowed to settle in a post quickly get the hang of it). A couple have been shunted over to work under David Davis.
If they were just allowed to get on with it, then there's half a chance the EU might be impressed with the calibre of their opposition. Because Davis sticks his oar in so much and so incompetently, they're not allowed to get on with their jobs and spend much of their working day wondering what on earth he meant by his last remark. And when they've worked it out, he sends along an email where he contradicts his last point and they start again.

He's a massive git, in a position of massive importance. I also go to Brussels to the European Commission a few times a year. The civil servants there tend to smile benevolently at the mention of Brexit, whilst exuding supreme confidence in the knowledge they have plans and know they're doing.
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So, £1B up front for Northern Ireland to keep the DUP sweet, plus maybe £0.5B in extra spending and then no guarantee that the DUP won't want more down the line.

Meanwhile £1B would pay for ~3 years of training and pay for 10k police recruits to help make up for the ~20k drop in police numbers since Cameron took office, a drop that the police were warning May (then Home Sec) would have a serious impact on national security, at which point she accused them of 'scaremongering' and 'crying wolf'.

What a disaster this PM is, but utterly shameless with it. I suppose the charitable view is that she's trying to save her party and its hold on power - she must surely realise that she personally is dead in the water as a politician. No?
 
GlennB said:
So, £1B up front for Northern Ireland to keep the DUP sweet, plus maybe £0.5B in extra spending and then no guarantee that the DUP won't want more down the line.

Meanwhile £1B would pay for ~3 years of training and pay for 10k police recruits to help make up for the ~20k drop in police numbers since Cameron took office, a drop that the police were warning May (then Home Sec) would have a serious impact on national security, at which point she accused them of 'scaremongering' and 'crying wolf'.

What a disaster this PM is, but utterly shameless with it. I suppose the charitable view is that she's trying to save her party and its hold on power - she must surely realise that she personally is dead in the water as a politician. No?
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Add it to the 'Election Gamble' bill. What's it up to now?
 
ddt said:
While the UK is still in the EU, it's not allowed on its own to negotiate trade treaties. They can only start when the ink on the Brexit deal is dry.
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I'm sure that could be done if UK solely negotiated renewing treaties it is a part of as a member of the EU to apply as bilateral treaties.

Of course UK may be in for up to 759 sore disappointments.

McHrozni
 
McHrozni said:
......Of course UK may be in for up to 759 sore disappointments.
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You don't think that long term relationships with the world's 6th largest economy are in the best interests of our trading partners. Interesting.
 
MikeG said:
You don't think that long term relationships with the world's 6th largest economy are in the best interests of our trading partners. Interesting.
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Oh, of course they are. I didn't say they wouldn't negotiate the treaties, but rather they would try to negotiate treaties somewhat in their favor. UK has to renegotiate dozens or hundreds of treaties and lacks negotiators, so it's bound to give minor concessions here and there. By itself each such concession will not do much, but do this times several hundred and the pain will accumulate.

Also, don't expect UK to remain the 6th largest economy for long. Count yourself lucky is you're 16th in 2040.

McHrozni
 
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Sorry, my mistake. We're the 5th largest.

Curious prediction...........we'll be in the equivalent position of Sweden in 23 years time. Sweden has an economy that is 19% of the size of ours. Do you want to have another look at that prediction?
 
MikeG said:
Sorry, my mistake. We're the 5th largest.

Curious prediction...........we'll be in the equivalent position of Sweden in 23 years time. Sweden has an economy that is 19% of the size of ours. Do you want to have another look at that prediction?
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Not really, no. UK is number 22 in population, so being #16 in economy would still make it above average.

Given how Brexit looks like UK will be overtaken by France, India, Italy, Brazil, Canada, South Korea, Spain, Mexico and Indonesia in that time for sure, there is no way around that. That would make it #14 and we've only spent the countries that will outgrow UK without a doubt. Add in a few wildcards - Turkey, Australia, Argentina, Taiwan - and UK will have to count itself lucky to even be in the top 20.

McHrozni
 
MikeG said:
Sorry, my mistake. We're the 5th largest.

Curious prediction...........we'll be in the equivalent position of Sweden in 23 years time. Sweden has an economy that is 19% of the size of ours. Do you want to have another look at that prediction?
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If it's denominated in dollars, the post-referendum drop in the pound meant that in dollars our economy shrank by 15% (even though in £ it grew by about 1.5%)). I understand that moved us behind France with India coming up hard on the rails.

Realistically IMO, the worst the UK economy could fare is a drop to around 10th - 12th over than period as:

  • Some or all of India, Canada, South Korea, Brazil, Australia grow at a rate which means that they overhaul the UK economy through growth
  • The Pound slips a further 10-20% against the dollar due to uncertainty over the strength of the UK economy post-Brexit
  • Scottish independence knocks a further 10% or so off the size of UK GDP

...and of course little or none of that could happen..
 
McHrozni said:
Not really, no. UK is number 22 in population, so being #16 in economy would still make it above average.

Given how Brexit looks like UK will be overtaken by France, India, Italy, Brazil, Canada, South Korea, Spain, Mexico and Indonesia in that time for sure, there is no way around that. That would make it #14 and we've only spent the countries that will outgrow UK without a doubt. Add in a few wildcards - Turkey, Australia, Argentina, Taiwan - and UK will have to count itself lucky to even be in the top 20.

McHrozni
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Well, OK, you've put it in black and white. We'll see.

For the life of me, though, I can't imagine why you would think that our economy will shrink to a fifth of its current size just because we reduce our ties with the EU........whose economy has been turgid for a decade or more. And if you think that Italy and Spain will outgrow the UK, then I think your judgement is nuts.
 
MikeG said:
Well, OK, you've put it in black and white. We'll see.

For the life of me, though, I can't imagine why you would think that our economy will shrink to a fifth of its current size just because we reduce our ties with the EU........
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It doesn't have to. IMO McHrozni is miles wide of the mark but IMO it's not completely out of the question that countries who currently have 50% of UK GDP could overhaul us in a 20+ year period if:

  • They experience 3-4% growth over that period
  • UK GDP grows at the rate it has over the last couple of decades at a little under 2% on average
  • The Pound drops another 10% or so against the dollar
  • Scotland acheives independence
  • There's a 5%-10% GDP dip as a result of Brexit
 
MikeG said:
Well, OK, you've put it in black and white. We'll see.

For the life of me, though, I can't imagine why you would think that our economy will shrink to a fifth of its current size just because we reduce our ties with the EU........whose economy has been turgid for a decade or more.
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I didn't say that. I said countries whose economy is now way smaller than that of UK could outgrow it in 23 years.

And if you think that Italy and Spain will outgrow the UK, then I think your judgement is nuts.
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Since this is coming from a guy who considers Brexit to be a good idea for UK, I'll take it as a compliment.

So, thanks :)

McHrozni
 
The Don said:
It doesn't have to. IMO McHrozni is miles wide of the mark but IMO it's not completely out of the question that countries who currently have 50% of UK GDP could overhaul us in a 20+ year period if:

  • They experience 3-4% growth over that period
  • UK GDP grows at the rate it has over the last couple of decades at a little under 2% on average
  • The Pound drops another 10% or so against the dollar
  • Scotland acheives independence
  • There's a 5%-10% GDP dip as a result of Brexit
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An average of 4% growth over 23 years produces an accumulated growth of +140% (new GDP is 2.4 times larger). If UK grows at an average of 2% it grows by 57% (new GDP is 1.57 times larger). UK can be caught up by South Korea, Canada, Brazil, India and France in this way without the pound dropping, Scottish independence or a GDP dip due to Brexit. Of course achieving 4% growth for a period of 23 years is a tall order for any country, but not unprecedented. On the other hand achieving 2% growth after leaving the EU after 40 years is entirely unprecedented.

Different scenarios will produce different outcomes. I, for one, am unconvinced UK will grow at 2% in the foreseeable future and that the pound will remain anywhere close where it is. I could be way off the mark, true.

McHrozni
 
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