How Long Will Theresa May Last as Prime Minister (UK)

[ddt]

'May announced on **/**/2017 that she would stand down as Conservative Party Leader, with a view to a successor being chosen before the next Conservative Party Conference in October 2017. The following day, negotiations between the Conservative Party and the Democratic Unionists to form a coalition government failed. During the evening, May visited Buckingham Palace to tender her resignation as Prime Minister to Queen Elizabeth II and to recommend that she invite the Leader of the Opposition, Jeremy Corbyn, to form a government. She resigned as leader of the Conservative Party with immediate effect.'

However, Corbyn does not get a majority coalition. He'd need the DUP for that too.

The Tories simply have to drink out this cup they've served themselves. The other minor parties that could give them a majority - LibDem, SNP - are both anti-Brexit, no way they'll affix their name to that. A grand coalition with Labour seems unthinkable in this polarized climate. So, it's either a Tory minority government, or a toxic coalition with the DUP, or new elections - well that's fun

 

[angrysoba]

I have a crazy idea; I wonder what Britons think of this:

A 'grand coalition' between the Conservatives and Labour, which would last until the Brexit process is complete, on the understanding that new elections would be called after Brexit. Each side agrees not to push for any drastic changes to domestic policies in the meantime (unless both parties agree). Could partisan disagreements be set aside temporarily for the good of the country?

At least that would have the advantage of each party being able to blame the other when it goes tits up.

But, no, it wouldn't fly for a number of reasons.

Both main parties apparently have very different ideas about what Brexit should look like. Though how they disagree is not really clear.

But secondly, you cannot set aside domestic politics for years when you have to create budgets which involves important questions about spending on health and education, and taxation.

 

[Craig B]

Mene mene tekel upharsin.



I don't know who the Medes and Persians are in this case, though.

They must be the French and Germans of the EU, who will take over the United Kingdom and divide it, by letting the Scots and Welsh set up pseudo-independent vassal states within the EU, give Loyal Ulster to the Republic of Ireland, and Gibraltar to Spain.

This is the nightmare of the unionists. Perhaps the DUP will save the British Union from this horrid fate.

 

[Garrison]

Is anyone else really mad enough to want the job right now? Dealing with the DUP, trying to negotiate a brexit deal that won't split the Conservative party and of course being at the mercy of any handful of backbenchers with a pet cause they want to advance.

 

[P.J. Denyer]

Boris might even manage at a Brexit meeting to insult less than 20 EU member states.

Only because he'd insult four or five and forget who the rest are.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Before this morning's resignations, I'd have said she'd limp along to the summer recess and then resign in October.

But as she's shown herself vulnerable to ultimatums, I reckon she'll be gone by the end of July at the longest.

Yesterday she was told "sack the advisers or face a leadership challenge", and bingo, the advisers resigned. Now she has even fewer bargaining chips available to see off the next ultimatum.

By making a pact with the loathsome DUP she's put the NI peace process in jeopardy and risked the Scottish Tories breaking away to form their own party. I suspect every one of her MPs is facing a barrage of tweets and emails from constituents objecting to this pact.

Not sure where this idea of Scottish Tories being opposed to the DUP came from. Their leader might not be a fan because of her personal situation but a sizeable chunk of their support in scotland came from the very same sash wearing flute blowing knuckledraggers that make up the DUP. Many Scots Tory voters will be delighted with this outcome.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

However, Corbyn does not get a majority coalition. He'd need the DUP for that too.

The Tories simply have to drink out this cup they've served themselves. The other minor parties that could give them a majority - LibDem, SNP - are both anti-Brexit, no way they'll affix their name to that. A grand coalition with Labour seems unthinkable in this polarized climate. So, it's either a Tory minority government, or a toxic coalition with the DUP, or new elections - well that's fun

The SNP have said they would work with Labour but I think they would be looking for a commitment to keep Scotland in the single market (which probably means keeping the uk in as a whole). Lib Dems have only ever wanted another referendum to ratify the deal which I think labour could accommodate too. I reckon the SNP would also demand some further powers devolved probably including constitutional ones. Ie the right to hold further binding referenda on independence

Of course that still just gets you at best a just about viable minority government

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Is anyone else really mad enough to want the job right now? Dealing with the DUP, trying to negotiate a brexit deal that won't split the Conservative party and of course being at the mercy of any handful of backbenchers with a pet cause they want to advance.

This is more or less my thought as well. Whoever takes over probably isn't going to make it to the next election let alone beyond that. It's only surely attractive to someone who would normally have no chance which is precisely the kind of person you don't want in the job.

 

[Craig B]

Not sure where this idea of Scottish Tories being opposed to the DUP came from. Their leader might not be a fan because of her personal situation but a sizeable chunk of their support in scotland came from the very same sash wearing flute blowing knuckledraggers that make up the DUP. Many Scots Tory voters will be delighted with this outcome.

Yes, and the DUP regard her as a "hero of the Union". Davidson is above all a unionist, but she's not a fascist, or a social reactionary, or a religious bigot. We'll see how she gets on with her admirers in Belfast.

 

[Mojo]

A Belgian newspaper published a little more than one hour ago that five ministers have asked Boris Johnson to replace Theresa May.

Do they really think it would be fun for the Brits to have their home made version of Donald Trump at the 10 Downing Street ?

Fun, yes. Smart, no.

Boris is, for some reason, popular with quite a lot of the electorate. Whether it's smart for the UK may not enter into it.

 

[Matthew Best]

The Observer verdict on May:

Discredited, humiliated, diminished: May has lost credibility and leverage in her party, her country and across Europe. Where there was respect, there is ridicule; where there was strength, there is weakness; where there was self-assurance, there is doubt. She looks too weak to deliver her manifesto, too vulnerable to tackle dissent and too enfeebled to lead Britain. It is impossible to see her having the influence, authority or credibility to serve her country.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

The Observer verdict on May:

I don't disagree with this but the alternatives seem just as bad or worse. Labour did worse in the election so have even less authority or credibility. Another Tory leader will have the same problems plus not having been elected by the public.

May really has to reach out to all parties to try to cobble together some consensus on Brexit rather than focus on her narrow view of what it means. I think that's the only way forward now.

 

[ddt]

Boris is, for some reason, popular with quite a lot of the electorate. Whether it's smart for the UK may not enter into it.

If BoJo becomes the Tory leader, the BBC should turn "Have I Got News for You" into a live programme and coordinate their schedule with Donald Tusk.

 

[ohms]

I think she will last until Brexit negotiations have concluded and will be unable to get the legislation through parliament and we will have another general election.

 

[angrysoba]

Boris is, for some reason, popular with quite a lot of the electorate. Whether it's smart for the UK may not enter into it.

True enough. He might cheer people up by becoming PM because of his charmingly disheveled tomfoolery. But maybe as mentioned above it will be someone who would otherwise be seen as no hopers in normal times. The next Tory leader could be anyone then. Maybe the Tory equivalent of Jeremy Corbyn.

 

[Craig B]

I think she will last until Brexit negotiations have concluded and will be unable to get the legislation through parliament and we will have another general election.

You mean she will last for the 2 years period set by Article 50?

 

[ohms]

You mean she will last for the 2 years period set by Article 50?

Yes I think she will cling on that long, only because there doesn't currently seem to be anyone else the Tory party will unite behind.

 

[a_unique_person]

Is anyone else really mad enough to want the job right now? Dealing with the DUP, trying to negotiate a brexit deal that won't split the Conservative party and of course being at the mercy of any handful of backbenchers with a pet cause they want to advance.

You want mad? I present you with Boris.

 

[Vixen]

Rolling about laughing to see sacked ex-Chancellor, now EVENING STANDARD Editor, George Osborne, continuing to stick the knife in May, calling her a, 'Dead Woman Walking' and 'on Death Row', whilst smiling gleefully.

He is having enormous fun, putting out a headline on Friday, 'Hung Out to Dry', over a picture of a gurning Theresa May.

 

[Garrison]

You want mad? I present you with Boris.

Apparently even he isn't that insane:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/election-2017-40231623

12:56
Media strategist Jo Tanner, who has worked with Boris Johnson, says he's not in a position to mount a Conservative leadership bid, because he has baggage from last year's Brexit referendum and Vote Leave's claims about how much the UK sends to the EU.
Speaking on Pienaar's Politics, she said: "We all know Boris has wanted the job, but he has to neutralise the £350m. That's still something that follows him around."
She said the Foreign Secretary was "really bruised by what happened last year", adding: "You don't want to be seen as opportunistic."

There's also the problem that while Boris is amusing in small doses under the glare of an election campaign he's going to make gaffe after gaffe and the joke is going to start wearing thin.