How Long Will Theresa May Last as Prime Minister (UK)

How long will UK Prime Minister Theresa May Last?

  • She'll last a month at most

    Votes: 8 17.8%

  • She won't last out the week

    Votes: 3 6.7%

  • She'll last for two weeks

    Votes: 2 4.4%

  • She'll last until the next Tory Conference in October 2017

    Votes: 20 44.4%

  • She'll last until the next General Election

    Votes: 8 17.8%

  • She'll ride out the storm and serve the full term

    Votes: 2 4.4%

  • Who cares <shrug>?

    Votes: 2 4.4%
  • Total voters
    45
  • Poll closed .
After hearing the news today about the resignation, i.e. pretty much enforced resignation, of her long-term advisers who were
apparently disliked by many MPs, I think she will remain as PM for quite a while, regardless of how much her power and influence are diminished. So I did not vote as this option wasn't there.
 
SusanB-M1 said:
After hearing the news today about the resignation, i.e. pretty much enforced resignation, of her long-term advisers who were
apparently disliked by many MPs, I think she will remain as PM for quite a while, regardless of how much her power and influence are diminished. So I did not vote as this option wasn't there.
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Great! And if she makes a pig's ear of Brexit she can sack the people she appointed to advise her on that as well.
 
Autumn. The Tories get the summer recess to quietly line up the candidates, and then away we go. The fact is that they'll never let her near another election, so there is absolutely zero chance of her surviving 5 years. Two thirds of Conservative members polled at Conservative Home want her gone now, but wiser heads are probably trying to get the Brexit negotiations going first.
 
She's lost the mandate to negotiate the Brexit. She'll have to eat dirt to get majorities nationally, she'll meet with plenty of grinning faces in Brussels.

If she has any self respect, she'll try all possible routes out of this mess, discover they are all very short, and resign in short order.

Two weeks is my vote - enough time to exhaust all options.
 
MikeG said:
Autumn. The Tories get the summer recess to quietly line up the candidates, and then away we go. The fact is that they'll never let her near another election, so there is absolutely zero chance of her surviving 5 years. Two thirds of Conservative members polled at Conservative Home want her gone now, but wiser heads are probably trying to get the Brexit negotiations going first.
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Only problem is, the DUP-Conservative agreement is fraught with difficulties.

a) It is likely to seriously undermine the Good Friday Agreement (the government brokering the reconciliation of divided communities in Norn).

b) The Sinn Fein and Democratic Unionists are in the midst of a major feud, one of many.

c) Already apx 535,000 people have signed a petition protesting against the alliance within a single day.

d) As you say, two thirds of Conservative Party members want her out now.


Given the ridicule and mocking in foreign newspapers - especially in EU papers (for example DAS BILD's 'Der Eirende Lady [i.e., the weak wobbly Lady {cf. Iron Lady Thatcher}]) - one wonders whether there is any confidence in May spearheading the Brexit deal, given the mass rejection by British voters.

The Tories are said to have spent £143million on their election campaign. Will the Conservative party want to throw good money after bad?

Notwithstanding she cannot resign before the Queen's speech without handing over power to Jeremy Corbyn.

No wonder Conservatives in the media can be seen to be frothing at the mouth today.

Can they afford to wait until the autumn conference?
 
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A Belgian newspaper published a little more than one hour ago that five ministers have asked Boris Johnson to replace Theresa May.

Do they really think it would be fun for the Brits to have their home made version of Donald Trump at the 10 Downing Street ?
 
Degeneve said:
A Belgian newspaper published a little more than one hour ago that five ministers have asked Boris Johnson to replace Theresa May.

Do they really think it would be fun for the Brits to have their home made version of Donald Trump at the 10 Downing Street ?
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Fun, yes. Smart, no.
 
Before this morning's resignations, I'd have said she'd limp along to the summer recess and then resign in October.

But as she's shown herself vulnerable to ultimatums, I reckon she'll be gone by the end of July at the longest.

Yesterday she was told "sack the advisers or face a leadership challenge", and bingo, the advisers resigned. Now she has even fewer bargaining chips available to see off the next ultimatum.

By making a pact with the loathsome DUP she's put the NI peace process in jeopardy and risked the Scottish Tories breaking away to form their own party. I suspect every one of her MPs is facing a barrage of tweets and emails from constituents objecting to this pact.
 
Remember how the ruthless conservatives had to drag Maggie Thatcher out of No.10 shouting and screaming...? Or the time an outgoing PM hid in the garden...?

History shows it is probably better to resign straight away and retain one's dignity.

In April 2010, Brown asked the Queen to dissolve Parliament. The General Election campaign included the first televised leadership debates in Britain. The result of the election on 6 May was a hung parliament.[126] Brown was re-elected as MP for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath with 29,559 votes.

Brown announced on 10 May 2010 that he would stand down as Labour Leader, with a view to a successor being chosen before the next Labour Party Conference in September 2010.[129] The following day, negotiations between the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats to form a coalition government failed. During the evening, Brown visited Buckingham Palace to tender his resignation as Prime Minister to Queen Elizabeth II and to recommend that she invite the Leader of the Opposition, David Cameron, to form a government.[130] He resigned as leader of the Labour Party with immediate effect.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gordon_Brown


Maybe wiki will soon read as follows:

'May announced on **/**/2017 that she would stand down as Conservative Party Leader, with a view to a successor being chosen before the next Conservative Party Conference in October 2017. The following day, negotiations between the Conservative Party and the Democratic Unionists to form a coalition government failed. During the evening, May visited Buckingham Palace to tender her resignation as Prime Minister to Queen Elizabeth II and to recommend that she invite the Leader of the Opposition, Jeremy Corbyn, to form a government. She resigned as leader of the Conservative Party with immediate effect.'
 
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A lot of the political anaylists are saying that the only thing that kept the 1922 Committee (The Tory Party Tribal Elders.) from sacking May on Friday was they felt it was important to start the Britex negotations on time. and that would have been impossible with a leadership crisis over who would be the next PM.May might well be functioning as a caretaker until the Tribal Elders decide on who would be a good replacement.
 
dudalb said:
A lot of the political anaylists are saying that the only thing that kept the 1922 Committee (The Tory Party Tribal Elders.)
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The 1922 Committee is not really the Tory Party Tribal Elders - it is a group of backbench MPs (i.e non-Cabinet MPs).
 
I have a crazy idea; I wonder what Britons think of this:

A 'grand coalition' between the Conservatives and Labour, which would last until the Brexit process is complete, on the understanding that new elections would be called after Brexit. Each side agrees not to push for any drastic changes to domestic policies in the meantime (unless both parties agree). Could partisan disagreements be set aside temporarily for the good of the country?
 
Matthew Best said:
I don't know but I will say this: her days are numbered.
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Mene mene tekel upharsin.

Daniel read it "Mene, mene, tekel, upharsin" and explained it to mean that God had "numbered" the kingdom of Belshazzar and brought it to an end; that the king had been weighed and found wanting; and that his kingdom was divided and given to the Medes and Persians (Dan. v. 1-28).
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I don't know who the Medes and Persians are in this case, though.
 
Degeneve said:
A Belgian newspaper published a little more than one hour ago that five ministers have asked Boris Johnson to replace Theresa May.

Do they really think it would be fun for the Brits to have their home made version of Donald Trump at the 10 Downing Street ?
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It would be lots of fun. Boris might even manage at a Brexit meeting to insult less than 20 EU member states. Once.

Lots of fun, but not for the Brits, I think.
 
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