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UK General Election

Information Analyst said:
For the last few weeks I've been thinking that while Labour will still lose, it won't be the trouncing that's being predicted in some quarters. Just a gut feeling, but I suspect that while a lot of people seem keen to agree on how useless Corbyn is, on the day they'll still dislike the direction the Conservatives are taking more. A bit like 1992 in reverse.
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I should have put some money on this....
 
Archie Gemmill Goal said:
Given the nature of the DUP I'm starting to be slightly concerned that this result may well be worse than a small Tory majority. The country is now potentially being held to ransom by a handful of men with flutes.
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Yes, I remember that when David Trimble became leader of the Ulster Unionists it was a matter of concern because of his Orange Order history. But they are now the moderates, and electorally insignificant.
 
angrysoba said:
Yes, I remember that when David Trimble became leader of the Ulster Unionists it was a matter of concern because of his Orange Order history. But they are now the moderates, and electorally insignificant.
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Yeah, it'll be a marriage of convenience which last until the day after the Brexit deal is agreed. If we don't have another election this year (in the autumn), then I'd bet 5p that we'll have one soon after May 2019.
 
angrysoba said:
Presumably by Ireland staying out of Schengen.
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I don't think that solves it really. All it means is that people will be potentially passport checked on entry to Ireland but nothing at all to then stop them driving up to Belfast.

I'm also not sure, and would need to check, if EU rules would allow one member state to have differential rules with a 3rd party state regarding movement of people - i.e. not sure that UK and Ireland can agree a deal to allow free movement of just Irish people.

Even if the above is fine you are then effectively relying on Ireland to police a chunk of the UK borders.
 
Possible? Yes (I think so anyway, certainly in a technical sense.)
Likely? No.
 
MikeG said:
Yeah, it'll be a marriage of convenience which last until the day after the Brexit deal is agreed. If we don't have another election this year (in the autumn), then I'd bet 5p that we'll have one soon after May 2019.
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Just out of interest, do you know if the Salisbury Convention works with coalition governments?

I would also point out that the other part of Theresa May's calling of the election was to look like she had a solid majority behind her in the Brexit negotiations. This completely screws that up.
 
Archie Gemmill Goal said:
I don't think that solves it really. All it means is that people will be potentially passport checked on entry to Ireland but nothing at all to then stop them driving up to Belfast.
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That's the case now as well.

Archie Gemmill Goal said:
I'm also not sure, and would need to check, if EU rules would allow one member state to have differential rules with a 3rd party state regarding movement of people - i.e. not sure that UK and Ireland can agree a deal to allow free movement of just Irish people.

Even if the above is fine you are then effectively relying on Ireland to police a chunk of the UK borders.
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This happens now anyway. I have flown into Ireland from Switzerland (in the single market if not the EU), on my UK passport, with my wife and son on Japanese passports. In Dublin we had to go through passport control, even though we did not have to go through passport control between France and Switzerland.

But when we flew out again from Dublin there were no passport controls at Bristol Airport.

So I don't think the being in the single market or not would make a difference if
 
angrysoba said:
Just out of interest, do you know if the Salisbury Convention works with coalition governments?

I would also point out that the other part of Theresa May's calling of the election was to look like she had a solid majority behind her in the Brexit negotiations. This completely screws that up.
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Indeed. She made a lot of loud noises about how anything other than an increased majority for the Tories would be a disaster for Britain and the Brexit negotiations which no doubt will now be quietly forgotten about and brushed under the carpet.

She will now be in the ridiculous position of having to negotiate a deal acceptable to the EU, her party AND the DUP.

I think she may have to seriously consider another referendum on the potential deal once we know what the terms might be otherwise it will be a case of who blinks first.
 
Tony Stark said:
Is it possible that a new government could reverse Brexit decision?
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It could, but it won't. It won't because no party with a hope of power will do it. I expect in some alternative reality where the Liberal Democrats won by a landslide, they would be getting offers from Brussels right now telling them it isn't too late to stop the process.
 
angrysoba said:
That's the case now as well.



This happens now anyway. I have flown into Ireland from Switzerland (in the single market if not the EU), on my UK passport, with my wife and son on Japanese passports. In Dublin we had to go through passport control, even though we did not have to go through passport control between France and Switzerland.

But when we flew out again from Dublin there were no passport controls at Bristol Airport.

So I don't think the being in the single market or not would make a difference if
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I realise this happens now but that's under freedom of movement where these things don't matter. If you don't want freedom of movement then those things can't continue in the same form. Although reading further I may be misinformed on whether the DUP want to end freedom of movement anyway.
 
Archie Gemmill Goal said:
Indeed. She made a lot of loud noises about how anything other than an increased majority for the Tories would be a disaster for Britain and the Brexit negotiations which no doubt will now be quietly forgotten about and brushed under the carpet.

She will now be in the ridiculous position of having to negotiate a deal acceptable to the EU, her party AND the DUP.
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ah, the DUP, just the people you want holding the balance of power...

https://twitter.com/davidclewis/status/873112531283267584?s=09
 
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