Merged Qatar scandal/GCC nations cut ties with Qatar

[crescent]

And then, in the midst of all of this, ISIS stages an attack in Tehran:

Iran attacks: 'IS' hits parliament and Khomeini mausoleum

Twin attacks on the Iranian parliament and Ayatollah Khomeini's mausoleum in the capital, Tehran, have killed at least 12 people and injured many more.

After hours of intermittent gunfire, officials said both incidents were over and the attackers were dead.

The Islamic State (IS) group has said it carried out the attacks, which would be a first in Iran.

Iran's powerful Revolutionary Guards accused Saudi Arabia and the US of being behind the attacks.

Although this is not directly related to the Qatar situation, it still seems relevant to post here. The Qatar situation is happening, in part, due to Qatar's position in the Saudi/Iran cold war. Elements in Iran may use this ISIS attack to amp up the rhetoric and emotion in Iran against Saud, and crack down on Sunnis in Iran.

Things are getting a bit to hot for comfort, I think.

 

[TriangleMan]

The Iranian Foreign Minister is now in Turkey to discuss recent developments and coordiate action.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/iranian-foreign-minister-due-in-turkey-for-talks/2017/06/07/0600d49c-4b6d-11e7-987c-42ab5745db2e_story.html?utm_term=.52b7b79f7229

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

It would be no big deal if the World Cup had to be canceled: FIFA already got all their bribes.

It was the cite's headline. I was mostly posting about quelling freedom of the press.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I'm seeing a lot of newspapers (such as the Guardian and the Telegraph) mentioned cleared out shelves and panic buying. Specifically at one Carrefour at City Centre Mall. They all mention "queues up to 25 people deep" so I'm assuming that they are all sourcing one article.

Everything is fine, the stores have plenty of food and bottled water. I looked at a few places last night and didn't see any cleared out shelves (expect in one there wasn't much meat, a bit strange to hoard something perishable but whatever). Tonight I went to that specific Carrefour and, no surprise, plenty of food there as well.

Otherwise rumours are swirling around but the recent Trump tweets give weight to that this blockade of Qatar had been planned for a while.

I suspect the long-term plan was: build a narrative in the Western Media that Qatar is a major funder of [groups or countries you don't like] and only Qatar. If that narrative can take hold then the Saudi/UAE coalition can take action and hopefully have the West's support in doing it since they are stopping that "bad" country.

Except the Al-Otaiba emails got leaked and it exposed the plot. By this point Saudi/UAE/Egypt had Trump's okay (not sure to what extent he even cared if there was any real evidence) so they decided to pull the trigger now, probably earlier then they wanted. They've now canvassed other countries to back them, but so far they got Eastern Libya, Maldives, and Mauritius. I don't think that was the huge backing they were hoping to have.

This of course is dependent on whether you think the Al-Otaiba emails are genuine, but the current actions would at least give them some credibility.

Kuwait (and one news source says France as well) are now mediating the dispute.

Is it possible the fake news story reported to have been planted by Russia was part of the planned move?

If so is someone other than Russia behind it?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Unfortunately funk de fino now needs to be careful about what he says in this thread. The UAE General Prosecutor has announced that anyone in the UAE showing sympathy for Qatar on social media can be charged with a cybercrime and face imprisonment.

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/gulf/2017/06/07/UAE-General-Prosecutor-says-showing-sympathy-for-Qatar-on-social-media-is-a-crime.html

Wow.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I suppose that Trump will now pretend that he wasn't the cheerleader for this whole sorry mess now that it seems that it's falling apart around his ears

Trump is such an ignorant douche. Gawd knows whether stupidity or being manipulated by someone whispering in his ear is responsible for his Tweets.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I am really hoping that Turkey sending troops is to send the message that "everyone needs to sit down at the negotiating table and work this out and not do anything reckless".

Turkey is a NATO member so that gives me some comfort that the disputing parties will resolve this diplomatically rather than risk military involvement.

But I'd be lying if I said I wasn't nervous about where this is all headed.


Meanwhile the Iranian Government is probably sitting down with a big bowl of popcorn.

They have their own problems with that coordinated terrorist attack in Tehran, adding to 'scary'.

 

[TriangleMan]

Is it possible the fake news story reported to have been planted by Russia was part of the planned move?

If so is someone other than Russia behind it?

The Guardian published an article that it was likely Russian hackers-for-hire, not the Government, and mentioned that Saudi or Uae were the likely payers given that Saudi and UAE media jumped on the fake speech so quickly.

On my phone right now so can't post a link. The Guardian published it today.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

WA Po has another comment of interest especially given Trump's Tweets: The Trump factor

The ferocity and the sheer scale of the “Qatar-bashing” articles suggest that an orchestrated campaign is underway to discredit Doha regionally but also — crucially — in the eyes of the Trump administration....

A convergence of factors appears to have shifted the geopolitical landscape in the Persian Gulf. The Trump administration signaled that it intends to follow a set of regional policies that are aligned far closer to those of Abu Dhabi and Riyadh than Doha. Both Mohammed bin Zayed and Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman were high-profile visitors to Washington in the run-up to the Riyadh summit with Arab and Islamic leaders.

Further, the policy inexperience of many within Trump’s inner circle has presented an opportunity for both the Saudis and the Emiratis to shape the administration’s thinking on critical regional issues such as Iran and Islamism, both of which were evident during the Riyadh visit.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

The Guardian published an article that it was likely Russian hackers-for-hire, not the Government, and mentioned that Saudi or Uae were the likely payers given that Saudi and UAE media jumped on the fake speech so quickly.

On my phone right now so can't post a link. The Guardian published it today.

Russian hackers to blame for sparking Qatar crisis, FBI inquiry finds

It is believed that the Russian government was not involved in the hacks; instead, freelance hackers were paid to undertake the work on behalf of some other state or individual. Some observers have claimed privately that Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates may have commissioned the hackers.

That adds an interesting twist.

 

[Oystein]

The Guardian published an article that it was likely Russian hackers-for-hire, not the Government, and mentioned that Saudi or Uae were the likely payers given that Saudi and UAE media jumped on the fake speech so quickly.

On my phone right now so can't post a link. The Guardian published it today.

It seems implausible that the leaders of Arabia, being sharply experienced with the way daggers are wielded in that neck of the world, would get so far out on a limb on questionable news.

This makes it plausible they knew all the time they are acting on a hoax. Whether they commissioned it or simply take advantage, remains to be seen.
IF those reports are indeed a hoax.

 

[ddt]

Turkey only just got its nuts handed to them by the Kurds. The idea that they might come under fire in Qatar and try to invoke the 5th is a very scary prospect.

To avoid self-incrimination?

No, not a chance they could invoke NATO article 5. That only applies if Turkey itself were attacked. The bit about "occupation forces" in article 6 is about occupation forces in Germany/Austria when those countries were still occupation zones, I guess, and only applies in Europe anyway.

 

[Darth Rotor]

Turkey only just got its nuts handed to them by the Kurds. The idea that they might come under fire in Qatar and try to invoke the 5th is a very scary prospect.

No. Their putting troops in Qatar was not agreed via the NATO process/silence procedure, and is thus beyond an article Five criterion as a Alliance out of area operation.

I am really hoping that Turkey sending troops is to send the message that "everyone needs to sit down at the negotiating table and work this out and not do anything reckless".

I hope so to, but I suspect it is willy waving by Erdogan.

Turkey is a NATO member so that gives me some comfort that the disputing parties will resolve this diplomatically rather than risk military involvement.

Given that Merkel is pulling German aircraft out of Turkey at the moment thanks to the kerfluffle with the Turks (political asylum for Turks in Germany) there's NO NATO Play in this. (The Turks are free to do their own thing, and that's for the Turks to decide).

But I'd be lying if I said I wasn't nervous about where this is all headed.

Me too.

Meanwhile the Iranian Government is probably sitting down with a big bowl of popcorn.

I think they are stirring the pot; all they get out of this is a bucket full of win.

It would be no big deal if the World Cup had to be canceled: FIFA already got all their bribes.

Yeah, if this helps end that farce, it would be great. But this may also settle down in a few months.

 

[funk de fino]

Unfortunately funk de fino now needs to be careful about what he says in this thread. The UAE General Prosecutor has announced that anyone in the UAE showing sympathy for Qatar on social media can be charged with a cybercrime and face imprisonment.

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/gulf/2017/06/07/UAE-General-Prosecutor-says-showing-sympathy-for-Qatar-on-social-media-is-a-crime.html

To be fair, having been there, I wouldn't be sympathetic. They have brought a lot of this on their own heads. I see the stuff about planted speeches but Aljazeera also added a derogatory cartoon against the Saudi king.

 

[funk de fino]

As an aside a few ex England footballers live around mine and work for BEIN sports which has been taken off air. I would imagine if they were in studios here then they would be shut down. And if travelling to Qatar then they cannot do that anymore.

 

[Puppycow]

Russian hackers to blame for sparking Qatar crisis, FBI inquiry finds

That adds an interesting twist.

I skimmed the story. Is the FBI officially on the record?

An investigation by the FBI has concluded that Russian hackers were responsible for sending out fake messages from the Qatari government, sparking the Gulf’s biggest diplomatic crisis in decades.

According to who?

It is believed that the Russian government was not involved in the hacks; instead, freelance hackers were paid to undertake the work on behalf of some other state or individual. Some observers have claimed privately that Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates may have commissioned the hackers.

"It is believed" by who? "Some observers" Who? Also, that sounds like typical inside-job conspiracy-think. They commissioned somebody to create fake news to slander the Saudi King so that they could have a pretext to break off relations?

If this were a Wikipedia article there would be a whole lot of [citation needed] tags.

It's just that these days it seems to be getting harder and harder to discern what is true in the news and what isn't. As a skeptic, I like to be able to check things myself, not just be spoon-fed supposed facts that are impossible to verify.

Qatar claims the hacking operation was designed to discredit the emir of Qatar by attributing to him remarks in support of Iran and critical of Donald Trump.

Are we quite sure that the emir did not make the alleged remarks?

 

[Puppycow]

Even Snopes doesn't seem to know what is really happening, they are just reporting the opinions of people about what might be happening:

http://www.snopes.com/2017/06/06/qatar-fake-news-crisis/

 

[TriangleMan]

I skimmed the story. Is the FBI officially on the record?

According to who?

"It is believed" by who? "Some observers" Who? Also, that sounds like typical inside-job conspiracy-think. They commissioned somebody to create fake news to slander the Saudi King so that they could have a pretext to break off relations?

If this were a Wikipedia article there would be a whole lot of [citation needed] tags.

It's just that these days it seems to be getting harder and harder to discern what is true in the news and what isn't. As a skeptic, I like to be able to check things myself, not just be spoon-fed supposed facts that are impossible to verify.

Yesterday CNN confirmed the story citing various US officials that they spoke with. They would not name the officials however because the report had not been issued yet. The FBI declined to make a statement.

I believe an initial report has been issued now, I will try to find it and post the link. All the FBI would need to do is deny what the report alleges or what CNN has reported. So far they haven't.

[edited to add: no report yet, just a preliminary statement from the Ministry of Interior confirming a hack and that both the FBI and British National Commission for Combating Crime (NCA) assisted in the investigation. They did not name the source of the hack. They will release the full report at a later date.]

So until then all the FBI has to deny that they made any connection to Russia at this time. That would be important given most major Western newspapers have published that there's a link to Russian hackers.

Are we quite sure that the emir did not make the alleged remarks?

That's proving a negative. the Washington Post noted that:

"Regardless of whether they were made or fabricated — and people present at the military graduation insist that the emir made no speech whatsoever — Tamim’s remarks caused immediate uproar in regional media, much of it based in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates."

 

[TriangleMan]

In another bizarre twist the UAE's foreign minister, in an interview with AP, acknowledged that the Al-Otaiba leaked emails were genuine! (link is to ABC News)

The UAE did not hack the Qatari news agency, Gargash said. However, he did acknowledge the authenticity of recently leaked emails from Emirati Ambassador Yousef al-Otaiba in Washington, which several media outlets described as including criticism of Qatar.

"That hack showed the UAE's real concerns and that what we really say in our private emails is what we say publicly," Gargash said.

I'm a bit confused here. Those emails showed that UAE ambassador has been spending years coordinating with a pro-Israeli think tank in Washington to try as much as possible to criticize Qatar and Al-Jazeera, in an attempt to weaken relations between them and the US. Why would the Minister admit that the emails were legit? Maybe he was only referring to certain emails? He didn't specify any of them were false though.

http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/leaked-emails-expose-links-between-uae-and-pro-israeli-group-433989332

https://theintercept.com/2017/06/03/hacked-emails-show-top-uae-diplomat-coordinating-with-pro-israel-neocon-think-tank-against-iran/

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/otaiba-ambassador-uae-leaked-emails_us_5932bf04e4b02478cb9bec1c


By admitting to the plot, the UAE Foreign Minister adds credence to Saudi or UAE being behind the hack that implanted the fake speech (which then Saudi and the UAE got all upset about and used as a justification for the clampdown).

 

[Childlike Empress]

Concluding paragraph from a very brief Voltaire Network analysis:

While his father, Emir Hamad ben Khalifa Al Thani, was king, power gradually shifted into the hands of the company Exxon-Mobil. At the time, the majority shareholder of this company was the Rockfeller company, while its director was Rex Tillerson. A serious conflict pitted the Rockfellers against Tillerson.