UK General Election

McHrozni said:
It's true. It could mean nothing with the election less than three weeks from now.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017

It could also mean Theresa May miscalculated with the snap election to the point of being funny. Polls are a lagging indicator and indicate where the results were a week ago or so, and trends are more important than the current results. I'll keep my fingers crossed but won't hold my breath :)

McHrozni
Click to expand...

I think they have shot themselves in the foot with the "attack" on their core voters. Also Labour are galvanising younger and older voters with the tuition fees stuff and the triple lock stuff.

Still think the Tories will win. The media wont have it any other way. I sense the Sun Kinnock type headline coming.
 
The average cost of a house in the UK is something like £220,000. The original plan was that you'll be allowed to keep £100,000.

So essentially they are telling the average family that they will have to stump up £120,000 because of this policy.

How could they possibly have thought this would be a remotely good idea, let alone any kind of vote winner? It's just staggering that they could be so stupid.

May could have been looking at a 100+ majority. Now she will be lucky to keep the majority she has, IMO... and if that happens, everyone will look at this election as a colossal waste of time and money that accomplished nothing at all.

This May (ha!) go down as one of the biggest political mistakes in living memory.
 
Seismosaurus said:
The average cost of a house in the UK is something like £220,000. The original plan was that you'll be allowed to keep £100,000.

So essentially they are telling the average family that they will have to stump up £120,000 because of this policy.

How could they possibly have thought this would be a remotely good idea, let alone any kind of vote winner? It's just staggering that they could be so stupid.

May could have been looking at a 100+ majority. Now she will be lucky to keep the majority she has, IMO... and if that happens, everyone will look at this election as a colossal waste of time and money that accomplished nothing at all.

This May (ha!) go down as one of the biggest political mistakes in living memory.
Click to expand...

Well they've changed their minds now, there will be a cap. May hasn't said what it will be but I'd guess around £85K. It is incredible that they didn't foresee that the original proposition would lose them a slew of votes.
 
baron said:
Well they've changed their minds now, there will be a cap. May hasn't said what it will be but I'd guess around £85K. It is incredible that they didn't foresee that the original proposition would lose them a slew of votes.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure "Well, we're only going to cost you 85 grand" really makes it that much better for her.
 
I thought this election would be 1983 all over again for Labour. Now it looks more like 1987. Labour are winning the campaign, but will lose the election.
 
baron said:
Well they've changed their minds now, there will be a cap. May hasn't said what it will be but I'd guess around £85K. It is incredible that they didn't foresee that the original proposition would lose them a slew of votes.
Click to expand...
I think they thought their propaganda campaign (Corbyn an antisemitic IRA terrorist etc) had removed Labour from the equation, so they could do what they wanted without restraint; and we are seeing their real character. This ugly manifestation has repelled a significant portion of the electorate: however I agree they'll probably win ... in England at least, and therefore the UK as a whole.
 
If Labor can keep this to a normal defeat, avoiding a total blow out. it will be sort of victory for them given how things looked a few weeks ago.
 
dudalb said:
If Labor can keep this to a normal defeat, avoiding a total blow out. it will be sort of victory for them given how things looked a few weeks ago.
Click to expand...

But then Corbyn will have a mandate to stick around.

Labor may just spend longer unelectable before dying or reforming.
 
dudalb said:
If Labor can keep this to a normal defeat, avoiding a total blow out. it will be sort of victory for them given how things looked a few weeks ago.
Click to expand...

If the trend holds until the election, it could even be a victory for Labour.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017

It's a sizable IF though. It also depends on the results from the terrorist attack. Two competing forces are at play, rally around the flag and inability to keep UK safe. The first one favors the Conservatives and is probably the stronger, the second favors Labour.

The election is Mays' to lose.

McHrozni
 
McHrozni said:
If the trend holds until the election, it could even be a victory for Labour.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017

It's a sizable IF though. It also depends on the results from the terrorist attack. Two competing forces are at play, rally around the flag and inability to keep UK safe. The first one favors the Conservatives and is probably the stronger, the second favors Labour.

The election is Mays' to lose.

McHrozni
Click to expand...

Labour support does seem to be rising back up to the mid-30's percent but it seems to be at the expense of UKIP/Libdem/Green support. Conservative support is unfortunately holding strong at the high-40's.

I'd like to see Labour winning support from the Conservatives, not other opposition parties.

There's also the tendency for a measurable percentage of people to switch back to Conservative in the polling booth.

I agree that it's May's to lose and I'm not sure I can envisage it happening :(
 
The Don said:
Labour support does seem to be rising back up to the mid-30's percent but it seems to be at the expense of UKIP/Libdem/Green support. Conservative support is unfortunately holding strong at the high-40's.

I'd like to see Labour winning support from the Conservatives, not other opposition parties.
Click to expand...

I'm an incurable optimist and I'm happy to see Labour gaining at the expense of UKIP :) At least in theory.

Sure if Labour is to win, it needs to garnish support from Conservatives as well. I hope that'll happen, but chances of that are quite low (but different than zero).

I agree that it's May's to lose and I'm not sure I can envisage it happening :(
Click to expand...

Oh it can. One more U-turn and it's a tossup. She sure looks incompetent enough (or determined to sabotage Brexit enough, I'm not giving up on that one ;)).

McHrozni
 
The Don said:
Labour support does seem to be rising back up to the mid-30's percent but it seems to be at the expense of UKIP/Libdem/Green support. Conservative support is unfortunately holding strong at the high-40's.

I'd like to see Labour winning support from the Conservatives, not other opposition parties.

There's also the tendency for a measurable percentage of people to switch back to Conservative in the polling booth.

I agree that it's May's to lose and I'm not sure I can envisage it happening :(
Click to expand...

The poll data I saw was definitely Tory losing to labour but can't remember the source. Maybe that was only in wales? Which poll are you looking at?
 
McHrozni said:
Oh it can. One more U-turn and it's a tossup. She sure looks incompetent enough (or determined to sabotage Brexit enough, I'm not giving up on that one ;)).

McHrozni
Click to expand...

Yeah but if she does **** it up, then Jeremy Corbyn and his team will be leading the Brexit negotiations :(
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Back
Top Bottom