US/Canada Trade War ?

[blutoski]

Meaning Canada will back down as they always have.

Back down on what? The history is that US tariffs against Canadian softwood lumber imports have always been rescinded. That's the US backing down.

And yes, I agree that that's a likely outcome: Trump will probably back down, as he did on the proposed import duty to pay for the Mexico wall. Tariffs reduce the living standards of Americans overall; they're an bad proposal even if they subsidize one particular industry for awhile.

Agreed, which is why Trump is working them over a bit.

The USA is an advanced country, last I heard. It sounds like you're agreeing with my statement that Trump is 'working over' Americans for some incomprehensible reason?

 

[logger]

It's only "better" for the tiny proportion of the US population directly involved in the logging industry - possibly even only those who own logging companies. OTOH everyone else will be paying higher prices for all kinds of goods and/or will have their own employment disrupted in the event that the new trade terms are less favourable for other industries.

That said, I think the Vox article you linked earlier may have the correct analysis. This is a trivial and simmering thing that Trump has blown out of all proportion to look like the big man on the international stage.

Look, it's clear to me they're angling for a deal like they had before. Im willing to let the man who's been tested in this area get it done.

 

[logger]

OMG! He's putting quotas on garments, next?

(Sow)

Don't you think it's a bit petty to do things like this? I knew what this poster meant

Edited by jsfisher: 

<snip> Edited for compliance with rules 0 and 12 of the Membership Agreement.

 

[logger]

Back down on what? The history is that US tariffs against Canadian softwood lumber imports have always been rescinded. That's the US backing down.

Meaning, get the kind of deal they had before?

And yes, I agree that that's a likely outcome: Trump will probably back down, as he did on the proposed import duty to pay for the Mexico wall. Tariffs reduce the living standards of Americans overall; they're an bad proposal even if they subsidize one particular industry for awhile.

No I think he's angling for a better deal.

The USA is an advanced country, last I heard. It sounds like you're agreeing with my statement that Trump is 'working over' Americans for some incomprehensible reason?

That would be thinking about it through emotion instead of logic.

 

[The Don]

Look, it's clear to me they're angling for a deal like they had before.

...and that was a deal which expired because the number of people for whom it was "good" was far outnumbered by those for whom it was "bad"

Im willing to let the man who's been tested in this area get it done.

Who's that ?

 

[blutoski]

Meaning, get the kind of deal they had before?

Before what? I'm confused about your timeframe. Do you mean a deal like they had before proposing the tariff? If so, then why bother?

No I think he's angling for a better deal.

Not sure what that means. When he abandons the tariff, it will revert to to the deal we had last month. The only change is that the US seems less predictable than in the past, which means value to spreading our trade around and demoting the US' priority in trade.

This is what is happening to the UK as it pulls out of the EU - the increased unpredictability has lowered the value of their trade relationship, we are reviewing moving our London operations to continental Europe. Sabre-rattling in a world where there are dozens of competitors costs business.

That would be thinking about it through emotion instead of logic.

I have no idea why you say that. What part of my reasoning are you disputing? Are you saying the US is no longer an advanced country? I'm getting very confused by your statements.

 

[blutoski]

Don't you think it's a bit petty to do things like this? I knew what this poster meant

Edited by jsfisher: 

<snip> Moderated content redacted.

He's succeeding at his business, there's no doubt about it.

His gains were at the expense of shareowners (who lose their shirts in the bankruptcies) and labourers (who work hard to deliver services and don't get paid as promised). In this model, the shareowners and labourers are the American voters and workers. If history is our guide, he will screw them over for his personal gain.

Is this the business model you're hoping he will deploy?

 

[logger]

...and that was a deal which expired because the number of people for whom it was "good" was far outnumbered by those for whom it was "bad"

You're still stuck on this backward train of thinking Trump is looking out for people building homes. He's concerned about keeping one of our industries strong. Which most home builders would be proud of. Remember the saying"buy local"?

Who's that ?

Trump

 

[logger]

He's succeeding at his business, there's no doubt about it.

His gains were at the expense of shareowners (who lose their shirts in the bankruptcies) and labourers (who work hard to deliver services and don't get paid as promised). In this model, the shareowners and labourers are the American voters and workers. If history is our guide, he will screw them over for his personal gain.

Is this the business model you're hoping he will deploy?

This wasn't directed at Trump.

So let's pretend it was meant as you thought.
Obviously you've never dealt with contractors who do crappy work. Final payment is a commonly used tactic to get them to fox the mistakes they've made. Do you honestly think after hundreds of projects which each have hundreds contractors Trump would not be dealing Ng with issues such as this?

Real simple stuff here folks for people who have lived!

 

[lomiller]

Im willing to let the man who's been tested in this area get it done.

Who's that ?

Trump

Just because he once took a Turing Test doesn't mean he passed.

 

[blutoski]

This wasn't directed at Trump.

So let's pretend it was meant as you thought.
Obviously you've never dealt with contractors who do crappy work. Final payment is a commonly used tactic to get them to fox the mistakes they've made. Do you honestly think after hundreds of projects which each have hundreds contractors Trump would not be dealing Ng with issues such as this?

Real simple stuff here folks for people who have lived!

As mentioned earlier, my job is to solicit contracted vendors, to the tune of multimillion dollar projects every year. We take pains to vet our contractors for quality and have never had that problem.

Since he's experiencing this problem so frequently, and declaring so many bankruptcies, it sounds like either he's a poor manager, or on the other hand, this could be his business model. I was giving him credit for being competent but corrupt. If you are arguing instead that he's honest but incompetent, I can see the merit in that too. But I think the 'corrupt' model better explains how he makes millions while bankrupting investors.

Either way, what makes you think he knows anything about international trade such that he can competently negotiate? So far he's muffed up the trust of Canada, which is a long standing partner providing low cost materials and services to Americans for generations.

 

[blutoski]

You're still stuck on this backward train of thinking Trump is looking out for people building homes.

I think he promised to look out for all Americans, so presumably that would include people who build homes.

He's concerned about keeping one of our industries strong. Which most home builders would be proud of. Remember the saying"buy local"?

Well, they're not. The main complaints have been from construction companies, that industry is not kept strong with this change.

Another block of complaints is from real estate agents - the increase in the home costs will be passed on to new buyers, most of whom are already struggling with down payments.

If you want to persuade people to buy local, go picket a Dollar Store. That's an entire retail sector that profits from foreign manufacturing.

The reason there's cheap imports is that Americans want it. Your proposal is to interfere in the market and reduce consumer choice and force them to pay more. Which is fine, but appreciate it for what it is.

 

[logger]

As mentioned earlier, my job is to solicit contracted vendors, to the tune of multimillion dollar projects every year. We take pains to vet our contractors for quality and have never had that problem.

Since he's experiencing this problem so frequently, and declaring so many bankruptcies, it sounds like either he's a poor manager, or on the other hand, this could be his business model. I was giving him credit for being competent but corrupt. If you are arguing instead that he's honest but incompetent, I can see the merit in that too. But I think the 'corrupt' model better explains how he makes millions while bankrupting investors.

I seriously doubt your little sales job even remotely compares to what he's been involved in. That you would think this is simply laughable. When you make your first billion, please let us know.

Either way, what makes you think he knows anything about international trade such that he can competently negotiate? So far he's muffed up the trust of Canada, which is a long standing partner providing low cost materials and services to Americans for generations.

He doesn't have to, remember we went over this nut a while back. He like Obama surround themselves with people who know. Trumps job is to facilitate the negotiation. Obama was probably the least experienced person to ever hold the office.

 

[logger]

I think he promised to look out for all Americans, so presumably that would include people who build homes.[\quote]

Logic would tell you a clue on that. Maybe you just didn't understand him, funny, I knew exactly what he meant.

Well, they're not. The main complaints have been from construction companies, that industry is not kept strong with this change.

Another block of complaints is from real estate agents - the increase in the home costs will be passed on to new buyers, most of whom are already struggling with down payments.

If you want to persuade people to buy local, go picket a Dollar Store. That's an entire retail sector that profits from foreign manufacturing.

The reason there's cheap imports is that Americans want it. Your proposal is to interfere in the market and reduce consumer choice and force them to pay more. Which is fine, but appreciate it for what it is.

Seriously? The tariff couldn't possibly affect anyone yet.
Real Estate agents? ******* hilarious! Do you realize they make more money the higher the home cost?

 

[Border Reiver]

Seriously? The tariff couldn't possibly affect anyone yet.
Real Estate agents? ******* hilarious! Do you realize they make more money the higher the home cost?

Sure, like gas prices don't rise the instant that there's some sort of serious problem reported in the Middle East, or in some part of the oil supply chain either.

And if they sell fewer homes, they make less.

 

[Foolmewunz]

I think he promised to look out for all Americans, so presumably that would include people who build homes.

Logic would tell you a clue on that. Maybe you just didn't understand him, funny, I knew exactly what he meant.





Seriously? The tariff couldn't possibly affect anyone yet.
Real Estate agents? ******* hilarious! Do you realize they make more money the higher the home cost?

The tariff was merely announced and softwood went to its highest price in three decades.

And real estate agents do make more if the price is higher. OTOH, what's 6% of $000,000.00? If they can't sell houses they make zip. The concern is at the low end of the housing market, as you know.

 

[logger]

The tariff was merely announced and softwood went to its highest price in three decades.

See why those 4 mills shouldn't be controlling the market?

And real estate agents do make more if the price is higher. OTOH, what's 6% of $000,000.00? If they can't sell houses they make zip. The concern is at the low end of the housing market, as you know.

Can't sell houses? A bit dramatic even for you?

Guess what happens if the houses don't sell from this tiny increase in lumber? Magically the price goes down. Guess why it goes down?

 

[logger]

Sure, like gas prices don't rise the instant that there's some sort of serious problem reported in the Middle East, or in some part of the oil supply chain either.

And if they sell fewer homes, they make less.

No actually that doesn't happen in lumber, sorry!

See, people don't need to buy 2x4's like they need gas. So when prices do finally climb, guess what will happen a short time later? these cycles are quite common.

 

[Foolmewunz]

Can't sell houses? A bit dramatic even for you?

Guess what happens if the houses don't sell from this tiny increase in lumber? Magically the price goes down. Guess why it goes down?

Trickle Down Magic? Libertarian catechism? Voodoo Economics? 'Cuz Milton Friedman says so?

 

[The Don]

You're still stuck on this backward train of thinking Trump is looking out for people building homes. He's concerned about keeping one of our industries strong.

I'm not clear on which industry he's concerned about keeping strong. If it's the logging industry and he's really interested in keeping it strong as opposed to engaging in this whole charade to appear "strong" then he's going about it an interesting way.

If he were to impose tariffs then he is baking in the inefficiencies which meant that the US lumber industry apparently couldn't compete domestically, much less internationally. Over time those inefficiencies will become even further ingrained so, like the US motor industry in the 1970s, it'll become "institutionalised" in its own domestic market, leaving it exposed to better and more efficient entrants from overseas.

This "support" for the logging industry is of course coming at a significant cost to other industries like construction, realty and finance which contribute far more to U.S. GDP than the logging industry - not to mention the US consumer who will have bear the passed on costs.

Trump isn't just robbing Peter in a misguided attempt to pay Paul, he's robbing Peter, Mandy, Eric, Diane and Bill to try to pay Paul.

Which most home builders would be proud of. Remember the saying"buy local"?

Evidence for the first part ?

I do remember the saying "buy local". There's no evidence that's good advice for the economy as a whole because it restricts the opportunities for specialisation.

Trump

A man with absolutely no experience whatsoever of conducting trade negotiations between sovereign nation and pretty dubious business credentials all around.

been tested in this area

I query whether he has indeed been tested, but more pertinently, whether he comprehensively and repeatedly flunked those tests.