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Just a Reminder: Skepticism is Important

TraneWreck

Philosopher
TraneWreck
Joined
Jun 9, 2008
Messages
7,929
Sometimes it's good to remember why the general principle that unites folks on this board is important:

Salah no longer believes that the MMR vaccine triggers autism, a discredited theory that spread rapidly through the local Somali community, fanned by meetings organized by anti-vaccine groups. The advocates repeatedly invited Andrew Wakefield, the founder of the modern anti-vaccine movement, to talk to worried parents.

Immunization rates plummeted and, last month, the first cases of measles appeared. Soon, there was a full-blown outbreak, one of the starkest consequences of an intensifying anti-vaccine movement in the United States and around the world that has gained traction in part by targeting specific communities.
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/nati...f_story.html?tid=ss_tw&utm_term=.d9f72db541bd
 
I thought this was interesting (from the link):
While scores of studies from around the world have shown conclusively that vaccines do not cause autism, that is often not a satisfactory answer for Somali American parents. They say that if science can explain that vaccines do not cause autism, science should be able to say what does.​

If I were a parent who wasn't sure whom to trust, would I risk autism or measles in my kid? The mortality rate for measles in the US is as high as 1/500 cases, with a base rate of about 1,000 cases across the country yearly. If we jump this up ten-fold, we still only get 20 deaths a year. Those aren't bad odds if autism strikes one in 68 (CDC numbers, 2014).

Vaccines don't even have to be the sole cause of autism to worry about it. All they have to do is be related to autism to spin Bayes. Set your priors on "don't trust" and the math works out.
 
marplots said:
I thought this was interesting (from the link):
While scores of studies from around the world have shown conclusively that vaccines do not cause autism, that is often not a satisfactory answer for Somali American parents. They say that if science can explain that vaccines do not cause autism, science should be able to say what does.​

If I were a parent who wasn't sure whom to trust, would I risk autism or measles in my kid? The mortality rate for measles in the US is as high as 1/500 cases, with a base rate of about 1,000 cases across the country yearly. If we jump this up ten-fold, we still only get 20 deaths a year. Those aren't bad odds if autism strikes one in 68 (CDC numbers, 2014).

Vaccines don't even have to be the sole cause of autism to worry about it. All they have to do is be related to autism to spin Bayes. Set your priors on "don't trust" and the math works out.
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If you're not sure who to trust the solution is to try to understand how to determine what is and what is not true. Which is basically the OP's point: skepticism.

Otherwise you can be uncertain about who to trust on every issue and believe anything at all. Is the earth round? Who knows!!

Regarding the quote: vaccines don't cause autism. They also don't cause schizophrenia, either, but since we don't know what does, maybe they cause that too? Maybe vaccines cause bees to die and are responsible for Trump being elected...
 
Roboramma said:
If you're not sure who to trust the solution is to try to understand how to determine what is and what is not true. Which is basically the OP's point: skepticism.
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Skepticism alone cannot adjudicate truth claims, most especially when there are multiple unknowns and claims that do not compete directly. It is quite possible to distrust all claims - it might even be efficient to do so. (I don't for instance, trust any versions of God and am unlikely to change my view, despite there being a version I haven't heard yet.)

Otherwise you can be uncertain about who to trust on every issue and believe anything at all. Is the earth round? Who knows!!
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Correct. I assume the Somali immigrants in the story don't view the US healthcare system the same way I do.

Regarding the quote: vaccines don't cause autism. They also don't cause schizophrenia, either, but since we don't know what does, maybe they cause that too? Maybe vaccines cause bees to die and are responsible for Trump being elected...
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Perhaps. The interesting thing is that one could construct some consistent picture of the world where any/all of that is true.

Skepticism is not always the right tool. Trust has a role too.

I wonder if some clever lawyer can't be convinced to sue the anti-vaxxer speakers who talked these people into not getting their kids vaccinated? It would be a wonderful class action lawsuit if it could be done.
 
marplots said:
I thought this was interesting (from the link):
While scores of studies from around the world have shown conclusively that vaccines do not cause autism, that is often not a satisfactory answer for Somali American parents. They say that if science can explain that vaccines do not cause autism, science should be able to say what does.​
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By that logic, they can't trust anything. Science can conclusively show that water isn't responsible for autism, but still can't say what does. Does that mean that you should avoid giving children water?
 
Squeegee Beckenheim said:
By that logic, they can't trust anything. Science can conclusively show that water isn't responsible for autism, but still can't say what does. Does that mean that you should avoid giving children water?
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But 100% of people with autisim ingest water. A significantly lower number of people who have had vaccines develop autisim. So the correlation between water drinking and autisim is much stronger than vaccines and autisim.
 
Hungry81 said:
But 100% of people with autisim ingest water. A significantly lower number of people who have had vaccines develop autisim. So the correlation between water drinking and autisim is much stronger than vaccines and autisim.
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Not just autism. 100% of people who ingest dihydrogen monoxide die.
 
Also, sort of sadly ironic that a lot folks worry about people from Somalia bringing a malign ideology to America, and here these poor folks come to America only to be bombarded by a whacky psuedo religion of ours.
 
marplots said:
Skepticism is not always the right tool. Trust has a role too.
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I don't see a contradiction, actually. To me, skepticism involves evaluating trustworthiness.

It's sort of my obsession, probably. I interpret critical thinking to be an exercise into developing insight into who I should trust, especially for topics that require expert knowledge.
 
blutoski said:
I don't see a contradiction, actually. To me, skepticism involves evaluating trustworthiness.

It's sort of my obsession, probably. I interpret critical thinking to be an exercise into developing insight into who I should trust, especially for topics that require expert knowledge.
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I like the way you framed that.

For me, the problem is one of cost and application. In my day-to-day, it costs me more to test than I lose in just going with the flow. The general heuristic is to do what those around me do; accept what they accept and get on with my life.

One of the real tricks needed with skepticism is figuring out how to choose your battles - where is the tool most likely to yield the best results and where is the effort probably wasted?
 
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