What does "physically repeatable" mean in the first place? And what does it even matter?
It's very simple, here is your problem: P(E|H) = P(E|~H). If that weren't true, and everything else equal, your argument would go through. Until you solve that, nothing else even matters.
If you really have some need to go around thinking you're immortal, here are some arguments which might be more productive:
-Claim that you believe mind-uploading will become accessible in your lifetime and give you effective immortality. Speculative, but nothing quite wrong with it in principle. Even you can argue that one.
-Go with the many-worlds interpretation (MWI) of quantum mechanics and claim you're immortal because your self will always follow a branch in which it survives. You probably don't want to go with that one, but at least it gets a bit interesting.
-Go only with the minimal assumptions required for the MWI argument to work, and claim you're immortal based on the general case. You really don't want to go with that one, but it would at least be interesting enough to warrant a discussion, yet probably still not a friggin 5-year one.