It appears that a certain physical state (whatever the hell it is)...
No, not "whatever..." A functioning brain and nervous system.
..produces consciousness.
Yes, as long as you grasp that under H consciousness is a property, not a "thing."
It then appears that consciousness naturally invokes(?) a brand new "self."
No. There is no distinction under H between "consciousness" and "self." Just two words to refer to the same property. And it's not "brand new" under H. That's you trying to slip your preconception under the radar. Again. And the "self" is not a thing under H.
Here's where words seem to fail us...
There's no "us" when talking about this particular failure. The words serve me and your other critics just fine. The failure comes when you misuse the words and try to change what they mean. Stop doing that and all the problems will evaporate.
As best I can formulate thus far...
We're talking about H. You're not supposed to be doing any formulating there. H is already formulated. In order to derive P(E|H) you need to use H as it is already formulated.
I claim that we cannot physically recreate this self...
Correct; we presently lack the skill to recreate an organism exactly like another one. That's why it was a
thought experiment. The question was what would happen if we could. If we can physically recreate the organism that exhibited a property, it will once again exhibit the property. The self is not physical
per se because it is a property, not a thing. It fails to be a physical thing in exactly the same way "going 60 mph" fails to be a physical thing. But I can recreate "going 60 mph" by getting in my car.
And, this means that this "self" is not cause and effect traceable or predictable
Absolute nonsense. The self is a traceable effect caused by the emergence of a particular brain and nervous system. If it were possible to recreate that brain and nervous system at another time or place, it would exhibit the same self. That is H. That's what the thought experiment was designed to investigate. You're pinning your hopes on the undeniable fact that a thought experiment isn't practical. Just how dumb do you think your critics are?
and the likelihood of its current existence is totally random.
Not random, but chaotic. And yes, there are many, many bullet holes in the side of the barn. We don't need to speculate about their distribution to know that going up to one of them selected arbitrarily and computing the odds a bullet landed there is a fallacy.
How would you describe/explain this situation/wreckage differently?
"Jabba's argument consists of nothing but year after year of silly word games."