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Will Trump be re-elected?

Will trump be re-elected?

  • Yes

    Votes: 28 14.5%

  • No

    Votes: 80 41.5%

  • Don't know, but I hope not

    Votes: 82 42.5%

  • Don't know, but I hope he does

    Votes: 3 1.6%
  • Total voters
    193
MrFliop said:
Well, we are less than a month into Donald Trump's presidency and so far he has a record low approval rating and has created so much controversy. Things don't look too good for him now.
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Ivanka will stand on the Trump ticket, be the first female POTUS and get re-elected.
 
I guess Ivanka will have a good chance in 2028: after all, her father made the post of President hereditary in his last term in office.
 
I'm telling you all right now, Trump will be re-elected.

Believe it, and remember the lesson of everyone mocking me when I said confidently that he'd win this time.
 
Skeptic Tank said:
I'm telling you all right now, Trump will be re-elected.

Believe it, and remember the lesson of everyone mocking me when I said confidently that he'd win this time.
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And if he doesn't get re-elected? Does that mean calling it right this time was just luck?
 
No.

Because I don't believe he'll be on the GOP's ticket in 2020.

(I have a feeling that the Dems are going to win the house and senate and he'll be impeached)
 
To me, Trump's reelection depends on a few things.

  • How do those working class voters, especially in the rust belt, feel about there economic situation in 2019 (since perception is everything in politics, these people need to feel their situation is improving whether it actually is or not would be a discussion)
  • Do the Democrats nominate someone with as many negatives as Hillary

I bring up the first bullet because it seems that if Hillary and the Democrats were able to have any appeal to these voters, Hillary would be in the White House. I also think that these working class voters were not loving Trump and their support is thin. Trump cannot alienate any of his voters in the next 4 years or he loses (unless the Democrats nominate an abysmal candidate which cannot also be ruled out).
 
seayakin said:
To me, Trump's reelection depends on a few things.

  • How do those working class voters, especially in the rust belt, feel about there economic situation in 2019 (since perception is everything in politics, these people need to feel their situation is improving whether it actually is or not would be a discussion)
  • Do the Democrats nominate someone with as many negatives as Hillary

I bring up the first bullet because it seems that if Hillary and the Democrats were able to have any appeal to these voters, Hillary would be in the White House. I also think that these working class voters were not loving Trump and their support is thin. Trump cannot alienate any of his voters in the next 4 years or he loses (unless the Democrats nominate an abysmal candidate which cannot also be ruled out).
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I'm sure he can make plenty of people happy with lots of deficit spending, tax cuts and public works.

Sure the national debt will rise from, what 20 trillion dollars to 21 or 22 trillion dollars, maybe a few more trillion, but it's hardly his fault that he gets to begin with such a deficit.

The Republicans in Congress won't like it, but their fortunes are tied to Trump. If deficit spending makes Trump popular with their constituents then they won't dare try to impeach him. We know they are way too spineless to stand up to him (to remind you these were the people who called him crazy, racist, unfit for office and unfit to be near the nuclear codes, a cancer on American politics and society when they thought he couldn't win the Republican nomination and then endorsed him for president when he did, or came running to him for scraps even after he insulted them professionally and personally and tweeted unflattering pictures of their wives and called them losers etc...)

I am pretty sure there will be no impeachment unless the Republican voting public turn against him and he will do his best to throw pork their way to keep them happy.
 
This is the US, he probably will win re-election.

Scwarzenegger won twice in California, as a republican. People pretty much pick the name on the ballot they recognize.
 
I wonder how much demographic shift will play re: the outcome.

Another variable that could work for, against, or come out a wash: Trump fatigue.
 
Trump's currently trying to antagonize Iran into war. Once we have a fresh shooting war Trump's win in 2020 is pretty much in the bag. He'll ramp up the fear and terror to new heights.

Like George W., he's treating the security briefings entirely too lightly. Justified or not, failing to act on Clinton-era intelligence is considered by some to be one of the contributing factors to the 9/11 terror attacks. If Trump presides over a terrorist attack on US soil he's going to be VERY difficult to defeat in 2020.

He's not going to be impeached. By the time the mid-term elections come around, he'll have so much Fear, Uncertainly and Doubt in play the Democrats will probably lose seats, not gain them. Anyone hoping the GOP will impeach him is living in a fantasy land. They'll probably try to contain the damage he does to their brand but in the end, a powerful populist leader typically leads to more power for his party.

The real questions in my mind are not if Trump will be a two-termer. What I wonder about is:

Will Trump get a constitutional amendment passed to remove the POTUS term limit and allow himself to run for a third term?

Will Bannon be able to continue dancing the line between white supremacist ideologies and "I can't be racist, I'm a Jew!" to avoid being targeted for assassination by the more overtly NAZI portions of the Alt-Right? While the Alt-Right turning aginst him and successfully assassinating him is unlikely, it's still close enough to the realm of possibility that Bannon would be a fool to not prepare for the contingency.
 
halleyscomet said:
Trump's currently trying to antagonize Iran into war. Once we have a fresh shooting war Trump's win in 2020 is pretty much in the bag. He'll ramp up the fear and terror to new heights.

Like George W., he's treating the security briefings entirely too lightly. Justified or not, failing to act on Clinton-era intelligence is considered by some to be one of the contributing factors to the 9/11 terror attacks. If Trump presides over a terrorist attack on US soil he's going to be VERY difficult to defeat in 2020.

He's not going to be impeached. By the time the mid-term elections come around, he'll have so much Fear, Uncertainly and Doubt in play the Democrats will probably lose seats, not gain them. Anyone hoping the GOP will impeach him is living in a fantasy land. They'll probably try to contain the damage he does to their brand but in the end, a powerful populist leader typically leads to more power for his party.

The real questions in my mind are not if Trump will be a two-termer. What I wonder about is:

Will Trump get a constitutional amendment passed to remove the POTUS term limit and allow himself to run for a third term?

Will Bannon be able to continue dancing the line between white supremacist ideologies and "I can't be racist, I'm a Jew!" to avoid being targeted for assassination by the more overtly NAZI portions of the Alt-Right? While the Alt-Right turning aginst him and successfully assassinating him is unlikely, it's still close enough to the realm of possibility that Bannon would be a fool to not prepare for the contingency.
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You have totally lost faith in Democracy in the US, haven't you?
I just don't think the American people are as dumb or willing to give up their freedom as you think there are. Some desperate voters in the Rust Belt States made a bad decision;I don't think that is cause for basically indulging in despair porn.
And this verges on Conspriacy Theory thinking.
 
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