Brexit: Now What? Part II

[ddt]

I hope not. For reason I mentioned above keeping the EU block would mean keeping the issue of freedom of movement linked. Allowing that bypass open the gate of every nationalist xenophobe wanting out of the freedom but in the economical area.

Mind, the proposal would only offer freedom of movement into and within the EU for those Britons who choose to take up the "associate citizenship". It does not give the other freedoms, specifically not free trade. It basically says to the Bremainers: for a modest sum you can retain the right to come live and work in the EU.

 

[Degeneve]

The Brexiteers will be perfectly at ease with that, on condition that they can continue to exclude foreigners from the UK. UKIP doesn't care about Brit quants in Luxembourg finance houses. It cares about Bulgarian or Romani migrants in U.K. Cities, and things of that kind.

If foreigners are kept out of the UK, but British people remain permitted to work in the EU, the Brexiteers will be ecstatic. It will be like the restoration of the Empire. Will the EU permit this arrangement?

I have huge doubts about the possibility of such an arrangement...

 

[Craig B]

I have huge doubts about the possibility of such an arrangement...

More news on this idea. A further report now seems to rule out the individual "associate citizen" scheme.

... the Lisbon Treaty of the EU doesn’t allow for any kind of citizenship — associated or otherwise — for citizens of countries who don’t belong to the EU. To wit, the bloc’s de facto constitution states that EU citizenship “shall be additional to and not replace national citizenship” and that to obtain EU citizenship a person must “[hold] the nationality of a Member State….” There are no existing plans to change the treaty.​

That means I have to complete my application for citizenship of the Republic of Ireland. I have assembled most of the necessary documentation.

In the course of this documentary research it been found out and made known to me that one of my collateral ancestors was executed for treason in the Rebellion of 1798, while another was also convicted of this offence at that time, and repeatedly imprisoned, but amnestied; and he then migrated to the USA, where he distinguished himself as an American patriot in various ways. For a would-be citizen of the Republic of Ireland, this is rather gratifying ... and it's more exciting than being a mere "associate citizen" of the boring old EU.

 

[Lothian]

The Brexiteers will be perfectly at ease with that, on condition that they can continue to exclude foreigners from the UK. UKIP doesn't care about Brit quants in Luxembourg finance houses. It cares about Bulgarian or Romani migrants in U.K. Cities, and things of that kind.

I don't think those behind UKIP care about migrants at all. What they want is cheap foreign imports that the EU's pesky tarrif system frustrates. With that gone they can undercut UK based manufacturing which relies on overpriced UK labour.

Migrants, red tape, soverignty etc was just something to get the "low grade" people incensed enough to vote for Brexit.

 

[CapelDodger]

Philip Hammond says post-Brexit transitional deal will be needed
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...mmond-calls-for-post-brexit-transitional-deal

Asked by Andrew Tyrie, the chair of the Treasury select committee, about whether a transitional deal would be necessary, Hammond said: “There is I think an emerging view among businesses, among regulators, among thoughtful politicians, as well as a universal view among civil servants on both sides of the English channel that having a longer period to manage the adjustment between where we are now as full members of the EU and where we get to in the future as a result of negotiations would be generally helpful,” he said.

Among "thoughtful" politicians - nice touch. It indicates he has May's blessing for the "soft" approach. The hards will have to get rid of her if they're to prevail.

Interestingly, Boris Johnson is not a natural hard, and the actual hards are well aware of it.

 

[CapelDodger]

I don't think those behind UKIP care about migrants at all.

I think they do. What they want is a Britain ruled by its natural community leaders - chaps of the right sort, from the right schools and families. Chaps like them. Immigrants get in the way of that.

 

[CapelDodger]

Chechnya tried something like that back in the 1990s. I suspect Prussian response would be similar to what the Russian response was, albeit much more efficient, quicker and possibly more brutal.

Nobody would dare try it while Bismarck was in charge.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

I think they do. What they want is a Britain ruled by its natural community leaders - chaps of the right sort, from the right schools and families. Chaps like them. Immigrants get in the way of that.

I find it hard to believe that people like Farage are genuinely racist and xenophobic. I tend towards it being a show. mind you I'm doubting that more and more.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Im not sure about the whole associate eu membership at all. Seems like nonsense and as others said unless its reciprocated its just a way for brits to buy rights abroad.

 

[Aber]

Philip Hammond says post-Brexit transitional deal will be needed
Among "thoughtful" politicians - nice touch. It indicates he has May's blessing for the "soft" approach. The hards will have to get rid of her if they're to prevail.

Interestingly, Boris Johnson is not a natural hard, and the actual hards are well aware of it.

Not convinced that the Government think this is realistic; the likely EU response is 2 years only, but that can be used to shift the blame for unresolved issues onto Brussels.

 

[CapelDodger]

Not convinced that the Government think this is realistic; the likely EU response is 2 years only, but that can be used to shift the blame for unresolved issues onto Brussels.

As the train-drive, better to avoid the train-wreck if possible. Being able to shift the blame is definitely secondary when you're going to be right in the middle of it.

The influence of the small-to-medium business sector on the Tory Party at the constituency level should not be underestimated. It will generally take the pragmatic view over principles such as "the plebs have spoken, we must obey and go into the abyss". The Great Adventure simply will not appeal to them.

The EU would, I think, be more than happy to go for a Norway Solution, for example. Out in principle but In in practice, and for an indeterminate period. It's a lesson to everybody if even the Brits can't unweave themselves from the EU without unacceptable damage.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

As the train-drive, better to avoid the train-wreck if possible. Being able to shift the blame is definitely secondary when you're going to be right in the middle of it.

The influence of the small-to-medium business sector on the Tory Party at the constituency level should not be underestimated. It will generally take the pragmatic view over principles such as "the plebs have spoken, we must obey and go into the abyss". The Great Adventure simply will not appeal to them.

The EU would, I think, be more than happy to go for a Norway Solution, for example. Out in principle but In in practice, and for an indeterminate period. It's a lesson to everybody if even the Brits can't unweave themselves from the EU without unacceptable damage.

But the EEA doesnt change any of the things the brexiteers wanted. Its a ridiculous compromise that is worse for everyone.

Thats what we are getting then isnt it?

 

[CapelDodger]

Im not sure about the whole associate eu membership at all. Seems like nonsense and as others said unless its reciprocated its just a way for brits to buy rights abroad.

I think you're missing symbolic importance, which doesn't have to make immediate sense. I'd buy into it as a statement of principle - if I can't be a citizen of the world I'd rather be a citizen of Europe than a citizen of Britain.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

I think you're missing symbolic importance, which doesn't have to make immediate sense. I'd buy into it as a statement of principle - if I can't be a citizen of the world I'd rather be a citizen of Europe than a citizen of Britain.

Oh I understand that too but to me symbolism gives way to pragmatism. At the very least youbshould gave to prove membership of the 48.

 

[CapelDodger]

But the EEA doesnt change any of the things the brexiteers wanted. Its a ridiculous compromise that is worse for everyone.

Is it not the least bad for Remainers? It also seems to me the easiest to retreat from back to ordinary membership, which will happen before very long. In two years the demographic imperative will have completely crushed the Exit vote.

 

[MCel58]

Im not sure about the whole associate eu membership at all. Seems like nonsense and as others said unless its reciprocated its just a way for brits to buy rights abroad.

I think it is a response to the thousands of requests from Brit Expats to MEPs about what will happen to them post Brexit. The problem is that quite a large number are resident in one EU country but actually work in 3 or 4 other EU countries. At present of course they don't need work permits or travel visas and no-one can tell how this trans Europe worker will be treated in future.

If a solution is not found then I suspect that many will have to return back to the U.K. as they won't meet the specifications for residency in a single country and they won't have a permanent salaried job in just that location. Most of these are people who are interim managers, project managers, project workers, construction workers, consultants, architects, infrastructure project managers and workers, IT staff and visiting lecturers and professors. It is relatively normal for instance to work as a freelancer in these positions in Belgium, Germany, Netherlands and Luxembourg all within the same year or in fact within the same month given that you can reach parts of all of these countries in less time than it takes to get from Manchester to London.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Is it not the least bad for Remainers? It also seems to me the easiest to retreat from back to ordinary membership, which will happen before very long. In two years the demographic imperative will have completely crushed the Exit vote.

Well its worse than not leaving and im not sure it provides a soft landing back in. I think rejoining would mean swallowing pride. Unlikely.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

I think it is a response to the thousands of requests from Brit Expats to MEPs about what will happen to them post Brexit. The problem is that quite a large number are resident in one EU country but actually work in 3 or 4 other EU countries. At present of course they don't need work permits or travel visas and no-one can tell how this trans Europe worker will be treated in future.

If a solution is not found then I suspect that many will have to return back to the U.K. as they won't meet the specifications for residency in a single country and they won't have a permanent salaried job in just that location. Most of these are people who are interim managers, project managers, project workers, construction workers, consultants, architects, infrastructure project managers and workers, IT staff and visiting lecturers and professors. It is relatively normal for instance to work as a freelancer in these positions in Belgium, Germany, Netherlands and Luxembourg all within the same year or in fact within the same month given that you can reach parts of all of these countries in less time than it takes to get from Manchester to London.

Yeah but that solution for those doesn't help a spanish nurse that wants to work in Dundee.

In that sense it seems a cop out.

 

[CapelDodger]

Oh I understand that too but to me symbolism gives way to pragmatism.

On which see my response to Aber. "Associate citzenship" is a bit of fluff, but then so is the whole Leave case and look where that got them. And the rest of us.

Pragmatism is what will screw the Leavers up, because fluff is all they ever had.

 

[MCel58]

Yeah but that solution for those doesn't help a spanish nurse that wants to work in Dundee.

In that sense it seems a cop out.

Yes but in reverse an agreement to allow all existing EU nationals living in the U.K. a right to remain which everyone seems to think is right and fair without something for British expats that also maintains their existing rights is also not a good solution. The issue for both EU citizens in the U.K. and many British expats in the EU is that we are actually talking about conditions that could change their whole lives in a very short space of time and for many there is a real fear that being jobless and homeless and without healthcare is a real possibility.