Brexit: Now What? Part II

[McHrozni]

Also 40 years of incessant anti EU propaganda does not necessarily for a good environment friendly, on both side.

True, but I think EU is more mature than the Brexitard cabinet and it won't unduly punish UK for it. It will be an or-or decision though, which is why the shaved orangutan asked for a quick Brexit a few months ago, without any particular deal at all. He wants all the glory and no responsibility.

McHrozni

 

[McHrozni]

Or she wanted the PM post and be in history book no matter the cost.

It is a politician, some other more narcistic reason can very well be at play.

You're talking about Theresa May, right?

There are many ways of commenting on her, but we're basically saying the same thing. She is prepared to do anything to get to the PM post, she has the brains of a slug with Down syndrome ... the same thing, basically

McHrozni

 

[ddt]

And they do have a plan. The point I'm making, which is clearly correct, is that they cannot reveal their plan in advance of the negotiations without further harming Britain's prospects.

Why, if they have a plan, doesn't the government go forward with it? Why do we have to wait another ridiculous 3 months before Art. 50 is invoked and negotiations start, if they have a plan? We've already been waiting half a year now.

I assume they must have made some sort of plan. It may be a pathetic plan sorely lacking in detail - I don't know.

Oh, now you're not so sure? Now you just assume?

The reality is quite obvious: the UK govt doesn't have a plan, the Brexiters never had a unified plan and now they're scrambling to put one together and buying time.

And neither do they have the people to do it, because all skilled UK negotiators are in the employ of the EU. They had to hire Kiwis for that. Talk about curbing immigration.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

To be perfectly fair, this is what Theresa May said during the campaign:

I think the economic arguments are clear. I think being part of a 500-million trading bloc is significant for us. I think, as I was saying to you a little earlier, that one of the issues is that a lot of people will invest here in the UK because it is the UK in Europe. If we were not in Europe, I think there would be firms and companies who would be looking to say, do they need to develop a mainland Europe presence rather than a UK presence? So I think there are definite benefits for us in economic terms

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...s-what-theresa-may-really-thinks-about-brexit

She wasn't a notable Bremain supporter though, which is in part what won her the coveted PM seat. She does know Brexit would be horrible for UK and she does know she's doing terrible damage with leaving the country in the dark for so long. The question is why. She either has the brains of a slug with Down syndrome, or else she is sabotaging Brexit from inside. The first option is morel likely, I think.

McHrozni

Or she hates immigrants and will happily tank the economy to finally get rid of them. Shes tried everything else. Shes a loathesome woman.

 

[McHrozni]

Or she hates immigrants and will happily tank the economy to finally get rid of them. Shes tried everything else. Shes a loathesome woman.

One more way to say the same thing

I personally still hope she's really sabotaging Brexitards from the inside. There is no reason not to, even though the chances of that are really quite small.

McHrozni

 

[Andy_Ross]

There is no plan. Those charged with making a plan are too busy with their infighting and pushing their own Brexit agendas.
Boris has moved to a new level, as well as infighting he is pissing off trading partners and making statements at odds with government policy as well

 

[Hlafordlaes]

Or she hates immigrants and will happily tank the economy to finally get rid of them. Shes tried everything else. Shes a loathesome woman.

That is the sense I get.

What I don't really fathom well is that, as mentioned in this thread, opposition was mainly to EU immigration. Was there some sort of widespread cultural conflict with Poles, or some other group? I mean, walking down the street, it is hard to feel very "invaded" by people who very look much like locals. Was there tremendous scare mongering about abuse of the health system (welfare tourism)? It's an honest question, as most xenophobia seems to focus on highly visible traits, such as skin color, or non-Western dress. I am not getting how EU immigration came to be seen as so threatening. (Not wishing to imply that "white" immigration is in some real sense better, just potentially less triggering to xenophobes.)

 

[Tolls]

People didn't like the appearance of (rather small) sections in the supermarket devoted to Polish food. Or the appearance of the (very occasional) Polish shop on the high street.

Christ only knows why.

 

[catsmate]

Looks like Boris may be on the way out.

Oh dear. How unfortunate. Never mind.

In other news we may have found the governments post-brexit economic strategy, become a dodgy offshore tax haven!

The Trumpet will love that.

Corpiration tax is being reduced to make it even more attractivel

So what's going to be axed to cover the revenue shortfall?

 

[catsmate]

Most of what's been posted above proves my point.

What "point" is that?

Most remainers are still unwilling to accept the reality that we are leaving and will get more control over immigration.

At what price? Less migration because the UK is a less attractive destination after the upsurge in racist attacks and economic disintegration?

If the EU decide to invoke tough penalties as a result it will harm their economies as well as ours.

As has been shown to you multiple times this simply isn't true.

We won't know how bad their sanctions are till the negotiations are completed or abandoned. To pretend that the negotiations won't be tough is fantasy.

Yes they'll be tough because UKGov is being delusional to pander to the DDD block.

 

[Tolls]

So what's going to be axed to cover the revenue shortfall?

Nothing.
Haven't you heard?
We have 350 million a week to spend!

 

[Andy_Ross]

EU will say this us what you can have. We either say yes or no.
What's to negotiate?

 

[The Don]

Keeping the list up to date

So now the "£350m a week" has to cover:

• The £122bn budget shortfall
• Additional funding for the NHS
• Maintaining farming subsidies
• Maintaining fishing subsidies
• Indemnifying manufacturers against negative impacts of Brexit
• £2bn a year for science and innovation
• Replace EU investment for our poorest regions
• Pay our EEA subscriptions
• Pay for the department of Brexiting
• Pay for the department of International Trade
• Pay for bodies to set and enforce rules currently handled by the EU
  [*]BoJo's proposed increases in defence spending
  [*]Corporation tax cuts (likely included in the budget shortfall)

 

[MCel58]

That is the sense I get.

What I don't really fathom well is that, as mentioned in this thread, opposition was mainly to EU immigration. Was there some sort of widespread cultural conflict with Poles, or some other group? I mean, walking down the street, it is hard to feel very "invaded" by people who very look much like locals. Was there tremendous scare mongering about abuse of the health system (welfare tourism)? It's an honest question, as most xenophobia seems to focus on highly visible traits, such as skin color, or non-Western dress. I am not getting how EU immigration came to be seen as so threatening. (Not wishing to imply that "white" immigration is in some real sense better, just potentially less triggering to xenophobes.)

The EU immigration became highlighted because many hardworking well educated Polish people came to the UK and got on with it. They took jobs that the UK people didn't have the skills for or didn't want because they paid minimum wage. They at times worked 2 or 3 jobs. They saw market gaps and created small businesses and they worked really hard. However, they were visible because they acted like a community, with church services, local shops selling Polish produce, local events and eventually stores like Tesco started catering to their needs as they could see there was a market. Many spoke both English and Polish and in some places in the UK there was also a religous backlash because they were Roman Catholic. This is the same xenophobia that my mother met as an Italian in the fifties and sixties and which I grew up with. We are just not a tolerant country on the whole and we especially dislike people who roll up their sleeves, don't compain and make a success of it while we are waiting for something to happen.

 

[Lothian]

Keeping the list up to date

So now the "£350m a week" has to cover:

• The £122bn budget shortfall
• Additional funding for the NHS
• Maintaining farming subsidies
• Maintaining fishing subsidies
• Indemnifying manufacturers against negative impacts of Brexit
• £2bn a year for science and innovation
• Replace EU investment for our poorest regions
• Pay our EEA subscriptions
• Pay for the department of Brexiting
• Pay for the department of International Trade
• Pay for bodies to set and enforce rules currently handled by the EU
  [*]BoJo's proposed increases in defence spending
  [*]Corporation tax cuts (likely included in the budget shortfall)

The other day someone was on R4 today explaining we would still want to contribute to Europol

 

[abaddon]

The EU immigration became highlighted because many hardworking well educated Polish people came to the UK and got on with it. They took jobs that the UK people didn't have the skills for or didn't want because they paid minimum wage. They at times worked 2 or 3 jobs. They saw market gaps and created small businesses and they worked really hard. However, they were visible because they acted like a community, with church services, local shops selling Polish produce, local events and eventually stores like Tesco started catering to their needs as they could see there was a market. Many spoke both English and Polish and in some places in the UK there was also a religous backlash because they were Roman Catholic. This is the same xenophobia that my mother met as an Italian in the fifties and sixties and which I grew up with. We are just not a tolerant country on the whole and we especially dislike people who roll up their sleeves, don't compain and make a success of it while we are waiting for something to happen.

I shared a house for a year with a Polish bloke. He was a carpenter as it happens. Worked all hours. They had an oddly insular community which I got at least a little insight into.

I helped him out in many ways, and in turn got invited in some way into that Polish circle. When he got done for driving uninsured I got him into the service for paying his fines on a drip feed, and of course told him "Get insurance, you fool". It became a comical exercise to go out at 6 am each morning to push or jump start his car. I didn't complain about the state of the kitchen. I helped him deal with legal matters which he clearly couldn't understand due to language difficulties and so forth simply because basically I am a nice guy.

A couple of months later, after everyone moved on to pastures new, the scumbag ripped 3,500 out of my credit card which, unknown to me, he had cloned.

Like all things it's a mixed bag.

 

[Hlafordlaes]

People didn't like the appearance of (rather small) sections in the supermarket devoted to Polish food. Or the appearance of the (very occasional) Polish shop on the high street.

Christ only knows why.

The EU immigration became highlighted because many hardworking well educated Polish people came to the UK and got on with it. They took jobs that the UK people didn't have the skills for or didn't want because they paid minimum wage. They at times worked 2 or 3 jobs. They saw market gaps and created small businesses and they worked really hard. However, they were visible because they acted like a community, with church services, local shops selling Polish produce, local events and eventually stores like Tesco started catering to their needs as they could see there was a market. Many spoke both English and Polish and in some places in the UK there was also a religous backlash because they were Roman Catholic. This is the same xenophobia that my mother met as an Italian in the fifties and sixties and which I grew up with. We are just not a tolerant country on the whole and we especially dislike people who roll up their sleeves, don't compain and make a success of it while we are waiting for something to happen.

Thanks for the explanations, and... goodness gracious!

When I used to travel, I really enjoyed Poland and the Polish a lot. Dummy me, before my first time there, I was expecting, well, fat girls on potato diets all dancing the polka, to be honest. Boy, was that stupid. Whoa! Place is a walking beauty pageant. (As an aside, of course.)

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

That is the sense I get.

What I don't really fathom well is that, as mentioned in this thread, opposition was mainly to EU immigration. Was there some sort of widespread cultural conflict with Poles, or some other group? I mean, walking down the street, it is hard to feel very "invaded" by people who very look much like locals. Was there tremendous scare mongering about abuse of the health system (welfare tourism)? It's an honest question, as most xenophobia seems to focus on highly visible traits, such as skin color, or non-Western dress. I am not getting how EU immigration came to be seen as so threatening. (Not wishing to imply that "white" immigration is in some real sense better, just potentially less triggering to xenophobes.)

Well I think the base of it was the underlying xenophobia of a lot of Middle England and the constant scare stories of millions of Romanians (particularly) coming here to claim benefits. There was thus this weird contradiction that Eastern Europeans were simultaneously coming here to undercut our workers by working hard for low wages and to scrounge from our benefits system. This was the main push of UKIP when the EU opened up to Romania and Bulgaria. This same idea was constantly trumpeted in the gutter press as well.

Poles were a fairly visible group among Eastern European immigrants as they were significant in number and tended to form communities and as others have said weird products started turning up in supermarkets with too many consonants in their names and the usual suspects complained that English culture was being destroyed.

On the other hand there have been incidents reported relating to Eastern European immigrants. And to be honest if you are bringing in groups of young men from relatively poor backgrounds to live together in a house in a foreign country where they may or may not speak the language fluently then some level of incidents would be expected and I don't think it's anything worse than the equivalent you would expect from say a British council estate full of white locals.

The interesting thing is that levels of anti-immigration sentiment tend to be higher in the places where the immigrants aren't. Which again to me says that the scare stories and media reports are driving a lot of it rather than actual first hand experience.

 

[The Don]

Keeping the list up to date

So now the "£350m a week" has to cover:

• The £122bn budget shortfall
• Additional funding for the NHS
• Maintaining farming subsidies
• Maintaining fishing subsidies
• Indemnifying manufacturers against negative impacts of Brexit
• £2bn a year for science and innovation
• Replace EU investment for our poorest regions
• Pay our EEA subscriptions
• Pay for the department of Brexiting
• Pay for the department of International Trade
• Pay for bodies to set and enforce rules currently handled by the EU
• BoJo's proposed increases in defence spending
• Corporation tax cuts (likely included in the budget shortfall)
  [*]Interpol contributions

 

[wobs]

[*]Indemnifying manufacturers against negative impacts of Brexit

The legality of this one would be interesting, as I thought that we were not allowed to compensate companies for tariffs imposed on them. I'm not a lawyer though, so there may be some wriggle room.

The government cannot directly compensate Nissan if it fails to negotiate tariff-free access to the EU, under competition law, but Clark said it has made four promises: funding for training; increased research into electric cars; increased use of British companies in the car-making supply chain; and tariff-free access to the EU for the sector.

http://www.out-law.com/en/articles/2016/october/brexit-uk-promised-no-tariff-costs-to-nissan/

Some estimates of tariffs between the UK and EU here:
http://www.civitas.org.uk/reports_articles/potential-post-brexit-tariff-costs-for-eu-uk-trade/