• Security incident: ISF was recently accessed by intruders. Please change your password, and change it anywhere else you used it. Read more

Proof of Immortality, the IV league

Status
Not open for further replies.
So, an explorer goes into the desert, gets lost, survives, and claims that he survived only because God told in what direction to walk to find water. If we assume that the probability he would survive if God told him where to find water is 1, then how is this not evidence for the God hypothesis over any other hypothesis? What hypothesis would be better supported by the datum?
The hypothesis that people dying of thirst in the desert have religious hallucinations would be equally well supported.

What if, out of all the explorers that ever got lost in the desert, the only survivors (say there were 10 of them, each independent of each other) each said (independently, and without knowledge of the others) that he only survived because God showed him which direction to walk to find water? What's going on here? Every time somebody gets lost and survives they insist that God told them where to find water? What non-God hypothesis would be better supported by the data?
The hypothesis that people dying of thirst in the desert have religious hallucinations would be equally well supported.

In order to determine whether the God hypothesis was better supported than the hallucination hypothesis I, like Hokulele, would ask how many of those who did not find water also thought God was directing them.
 
So, an explorer goes into the desert, gets lost, survives, and claims that he survived only because God told in what direction to walk to find water. If we assume that the probability he would survive if God told him where to find water is 1, then how is this not evidence for the God hypothesis over any other hypothesis? What hypothesis would be better supported by the datum?

What if, out of all the explorers that ever got lost in the desert, the only survivors (say there were 10 of them, each independent of each other) each said (independently, and without knowledge of the others) that he only survived because God showed him which direction to walk to find water? What's going on here? Every time somebody gets lost and survives they insist that God told them where to find water? What non-God hypothesis would be better supported by the data?

The hypothesis that only those who happen to go in the right direction and find water survive when lost in the desert. - Plus the hypothesis that people tend to attribute apparent miracles to a god.

- Both simple and logical hypotheses, well supported by the data.

... We might add another: People who firmly believe that their god will rescue them in the end may be more likely to press on and not give up.

But in short, a number of mundane explanations immediately come to mind.


Oh, and there is a problem with this and several other examples given in these threads: They are constructed. We can construct another: If a million people in a certain area insist that on a given say, the sky was green, then we would need to go and look for a reason the sky could be green. But, I would suggest we wait till such a set of anecdotes actually exists.

Hans
 
You don't believe that matter is made of atoms?

No, I don't believe it. I trust that, given the mass of objective evidence, it is so. There is a difference, and in discussions like this, such differences matter.

Hans
 
I suppose it would say it would be about equal evidence for those two hypotheses. What about against other alternative hypotheses, like the 10 surviving explorers found water by wandering around randomly, if say the chance of any one of them finding water that way would be 2%.

If 2,000 people had been lost in the desert and the chances of them finding water by wandering around randomly was 2%, then you'd expect 10 people to make it out that way. So the answer to your question is that it depends on more information than we've been given. Certainly more information than the anecdotes alone provide.
 
Bayes' Theorem is correct, so the probability of the obsservation given the hypothesis, matters.
The observation here is that the people survived and they offered an explanation for the survival. The observation is not that the explanation is correct, or even likely correct.


jt512 said:
We know that they said that God led them to the water. That is precisely the point: whether this is evidence that God actually led them to the water.
Exactly. The answer is "No." It is evidence that they said it. The only way to determine if it is evidence that God actually led them to water is to do what I and others have said, i.e., not take the explanation for the experience in a vacuum but rather judge it in the context of other experience. Something you acknowledge in your next post (the last quotation I respond to in this post).


jt512 said:
It does, but if 10 survivors all had delusions, it would seem unlikely that they all had the same delusion, so the data support the God hypothesis over the delusion hypothesis.
I have found your commentary on statistics educational and far beyond my own knowledge and skills in that area, but this comment is simply nonsense.

Why "would it seem unlikely?" More specifically, why would it seem more unlikely than God leading them to water? Even without what I am about to say, the "similar delusion" hypothesis is obviously more likely than the God hypothesis, but I don't expect you to accept this claim at face value. It does, however, get to what others have said about controls. Perhaps everyone who ventured into the desert is a missionary believing in the same God and therefore with the same confabulatory tendencies. Maybe people suffering from severe dehydration and under physical stress have similar neurological and synaptic responses leading to similar delusions.


jt512 said:
I agree that if the proportion of lost explorers who survived was approximately equal to the probability of randomly finding water, then that would be strong evidence against the God hypothesis. But by assumption, we don't know that.
1. It is not the only thing that would be strong evidence against the God hypothesis.

2. You have reversed the burden of proof. There must needs be strong evidence for it. Until then, you are suggesting that Bayes can support an unevidenced claim by drawing upon another evidenced claim.



That, if known, would actually be additional data, or possibly, something to base a prior probability on, similar to the prevalence of a disease in evaluate a the probability of disease given a positive test result.
And there you go. This is the bit about not judging anecdotes (or more precisely, there proffered explanations) in a vacuum.
 
Last edited:
No, I don't believe it. I trust that, given the mass of objective evidence, it is so. There is a difference, and in discussions like this, such differences matter.

A lot of Woo Slingers just can't get that when someone casually drops the word "believe" into a sentence they aren't necessarily invoking religious style belief.

If I say "I believe I'll have a grilled cheese sandwich for lunch" I'm not saying I have had a transcendent revelation that God has willed me to eat a grilled cheese sandwich.

The term belief is used as an off the cuff shorthand for a lot of less than 100% absolutely concrete modes of thinking and trying to "Gotcha" people into a false equivalency is just dirty pool.
 
...
The term belief is used as an off the cuff shorthand for a lot of less than 100% absolutely concrete modes of thinking and trying to "Gotcha" people into a false equivalency is just dirty pool.

Not really, just a very widespread tendency to not have full understanding/control over the words one uses. (Check with Humpty Dumpty on that one.)
 
A lot of Woo Slingers just can't get that when someone casually drops the word "believe" into a sentence they aren't necessarily invoking religious style belief.

If I say "I believe I'll have a grilled cheese sandwich for lunch" I'm not saying I have had a transcendent revelation that God has willed me to eat a grilled cheese sandwich.

The term belief is used as an off the cuff shorthand for a lot of less than 100% absolutely concrete modes of thinking and trying to "Gotcha" people into a false equivalency is just dirty pool.
Indeed. For whatever reason, woo slingers are unable to distinguish between conversational language and precise language.

Hypothetically, were I in a meeting and somebody were to ask the question: "What caused problem X 6 months ago?" I might answer "I believe that was caused by issue Y."

What everyone understands and what I meant: "As I recall it was Y but I could be wrong and would have to check the records at the time to be sure."

What the woo slinger understands is: "Aha, you have faith that it really was Y for no reason."
 
Not really, just a very widespread tendency to not have full understanding/control over the words one uses. (Check with Humpty Dumpty on that one.)

I'd say more it's a widespread tendency to hide behind semantics.

We're humans speaking English. We're not robots speaking machine code. Pretending like context either doesn't exist or is massively hard to understand to force a false equivalency between "I believe" used as a statement of opinion or hope and "I believe" used a declaration of religious faith is just hiding behind false obtuseness.
 
LL,
- Do you now accept that anecdotes can be weak evidence?

Oh, for the love of Anne Hathaway's Oscar ...
NO!
Does an anecdote make a hypothesis necessarily true or necessarily false? Is it repeatable? Did it set out what was or was not a hit beforehand? Does it control for confounding variables?
No, no, no, no, no.
For this purpose it is not evidence - neither weak, tepid, provisional nor anything else.

LL,
- Repeating myself, but just to make sure -- you're claiming that anecdotes cannot affect the probability of an hypothesis. Correct?
From http://www.dictionary.com/browse/anecdote.
noun, plural anecdotes or for 2, anecdota [an-ik-doh-tuh] (Show IPA)
1. a short account of a particular incident or event, especially of an interesting or amusing nature.
2. a short, obscure historical or biographical account.

Correct. Only cases that are part of a repeatable, properly controlled experiment of a falsifiable hypothesis are evidence in these instances.

LL,
- I don't see how you can believe that. Say that 3 different nurses claim that Joe is over 200 lbs because they each claim to have weighed him recently, on 3 different scales -- but Joe is no longer around to defend his claim to you, over the phone, that he was less than 200 lbs. Wouldn't the nurses' claims affect the strength of your belief that Joe was under 200 lbs?
- Should the nurses' claims not be considered anecdotes?

Jabba,
First of all, as has been pointed out, this is not the type of evidence we are talking about. There is no repaatable test of a falsifiable hypothesis…

LL,
- It is the kind of evidence that I've been talking about.

No, it's the kind of evidence you wish you were talking about. But, as has been explained over and over again, it isn't evidence insofar as demonstrating immateriality is concerned. It's not poor evidence. It's nothing. It's a waste of time. Use you time wisely and read a book about Millard Fillmore. You won't be any closer to supporting your foolishly simple ideas, but at least you'll know about Millard Fillmore.
LL,

- We keep missing each other...

- First, I'm claiming that a short account of a particular incident or event (an anecdote) can, indeed, increase or decrease the probability of an hypothesis.
- Then, I'm claiming that some such accounts given by NDE subjects do, in fact, increase the probability of immateriality.
- Specifically, I claim that accounts of confirmed events and situations that the knowledge of which the subject could not have gained through normal sensory input or lucky guessing increases the probability of immateriality.
- Such a subject could have had a lucky guess, or the subject and/or the witness(es) could be lying -- and in evaluating the claims, the likelihood of such possibilities must be taken into account.
- My claim is that there are numerous such cases that appear to pass that test.
- And, until I hear that I should decrease my quoting of copyrighted material, I'll start quoting more cases.
 
Last edited:
Take a look at them and decide for yourself.

I have, and I've decided that they are not reliable evidence for immortality. I've even given you a rational reason for why I don't consider them reliable. You refused to address it, which means your evidence stands refuted until such time as you agree to attempt to rehabilitate it.

But you don't get to shirk your burden of proof. You're the one intending to base an argument on their reliability. Therefore you have the burden to prove they really are as reliable as you need them to be. You simply declare them to be reliable. The only evidence you've given to support that declaration is that to you they seem reliable (a subjective impression). I asked you to outline what you personally did to test the reliability of these stories, and you refused to answer. To your critics, the implication of that refusal is clear: you have done nothing to vet the stories and you don't ever intend to. You simply read and believed them without further mental effort. Thus you fail to elevate your subjective impressions of the story to anything objective that would convince your critics.

Since you are unwilling and unable to establish your stories as reliable accounts beyond your personal credulity, they are properly rejected.

Move on.
 
LL,

- We keep missing each other...

- First, I'm claiming that a short account of a particular incident or event (an anecdote) can, indeed, increase or decrease the probability of an hypothesis.
- Then, I'm claiming that some such accounts given by NDE subjects do, in fact, increase the probability of immateriality.
- Specifically, I claim that accounts of confirmed events and situations that the knowledge of which the subject could not have gained through normal sensory input or lucky guessing increases the probability of immateriality.
- Such a subject could have had a lucky guess, or the subject and/or the witness(es) could be lying -- and in evaluating the claims, the likelihood of such possibilities must be taken into account.
- My claim is that there are numerous such cases that appear to pass that test.
- And, until I hear that I should decrease my quoting of copyrighted material, I'll start quoting more cases.

Loss Leader and everyone else understands your claim, the only one missing anything is you. He has patiently explained not only THAT you are wrong, but WHY as well. And yet you continue to ignore house chunks of his posts then claim "we're missing each other." Effective debate, indeed.
 
Loss Leader and everyone else understands your claim, the only one missing anything is you. He has patiently explained not only THAT you are wrong, but WHY as well. And yet you continue to ignore house chunks of his posts then claim "we're missing each other." Effective debate, indeed.
Sort of. Jabba gets that we understand it; he simply chooses to ignore it. The prove is in his own statements, epitomized by a long ago admission that he knew he had a weak argument but hoped no one would point it out followed by his refusal to address the weakness.

He has three tactics and three tactics only:

1. Ignore solid refutations of his positions

2. Pretend the refutations are simply the result of closed-minded skeptics who cannot think as holistically as he

3. Pretend that disagreement means we do not understand when it is obvious that we understand far better than he
 
First, I'm claiming that a short account of a particular incident or event (an anecdote) can, indeed, increase or decrease the probability of an hypothesis.

Asked and answered. We know what you're claiming. Stop resetting the argument by declaring that your critics must not understand you and using that characterization as an excuse to simply restate your argument. Restating it doesn't make it any clearer or more valid.

To the point, we've belabored the academic distinction between compelling belief in a hypothesis and providing scientific proof for the hypothesis in a more objective sense. Your anecdotes might affect belief, simply because belief differs from the hypothetico-deductive method science most often uses. The book you're reading is written toward the goal of compelling belief that NDEs are objective proof of life after death, not of testing the hypothesis of life after death. Scientifically speaking, your anecdotes do not provide objective or scientifically probative evidence for the hypothesis you and your editors are trying to support with them. Your critics consider it disingenuous that you keep trying to equivocate between "[affect] the probability of a hypothesis" and "prove the hypothesis scientifically."

Then, I'm claiming that some such accounts given by NDE subjects do, in fact, increase the probability of immateriality.

Asked and answered. First there's the ongoing equivocation between operative standards of proof that you continue to exploit in order to prolong the discussion. Second, there's the ongoing equivocation between immateriality and immortality. Regardless of your desire to move the goalposts, you are here to prove immortality and the proof for immortality is what you are being held to provide. We are well aware of your history of softening your claims in order to win a meaningless victory. This leads (third) to your ongoing inability to show any causal relationship between NDEs and immortality or the existence of an immortal soul such that observing one would prove the other -- what Loss Leader refers to by insisting on falsifiable hypotheses. There is a gargantuan inductive gap between perceptions allegedly reported and the need for an immortal soul to have purportedly made those perceptions. Until you fill that gap, you don't have a structurally valid argument; it's a non sequtiur.

My claim is that there are numerous such cases that appear to pass that test.

No. You have no idea whether these cases pass any qualitative test for empirical validity, because you have taken no thought to determine whether your editors have appropriately represented the cases, and whether the source material has applied proper empirical controls. In the case of Dr. Sabom we are able to determine that his empiricism does not support your hypothesis, not just because he declared it so in his conclusions, but because we are able to investigate the source material and see what variables he considered. You simply don't care that others have done your homework for you and have found the qualitative flaw in your attempt to conclude from his research what it doesn't support.

And you have taken no pains to determine whether the comparatively small number of cases your editors report succumb to proper quantitative controls to rule out such things as lucky guesses. You rightly note that they would be improbable, but to conclude that they really do rise statistically above chance requires a quantitative study that neither you nor your editors have attempted. They simply marvel, as do all such fringe claims, that such experiences should have occurred at all and suggest, with no argument, that this is a rational reason to dismiss scientific models.

You have simply declared that you take the second-hand representation of these accounts entirely at face value, showing little willingness to evaluate them critically. And your argument doesn't rise above inviting your critics to be equally uncritical and credulous.

And, until I hear that I should decrease my quoting of copyrighted material, I'll start quoting more cases.

The quoting of copyright material is not (yet) the problem. The problem is your quoting of secondary material whose sources you personally know little or nothing about. Just as you did in the Shroud thread, you have latched onto popular, partisan material that is purposefully written to convey the illusion of scientific rigor in favor of a fringe claim without actually providing it. And you demand that your critics must be as credulous as you.

They are not obliged to acquiesce.

You have been asked what you did to vet the accounts in your book. You acknowledged the question, but then tap-danced around any obligation to answer it. And now you're trying the same side-step you did in the Shroud thread. When confronted with the clear problems and misrepresentations in your secondary sources, you just pretend they don't exist and set out on a Gish gallop to flood the thread with all that hearsay, hoping that your incessant begging for credulity might snag some poor unfortunate.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

ISF - Join now!

Every member here is approved by hand. No bots, no spam, just people who care about evidence and honest debate.

Membership is free!

Create your free account

Back
Top Bottom