What's next? A Trump presidency prediction thread.

Ziggurat said:
Very little remittance is mailed. Too easy for cash to get stolen. Most of it gets transferred electronically. Very little of it is carried back either. That takes too long, and has its own significant costs.

Yup.
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Guess I know the business to get into then, Just need to have a contact in the US and one in Mexico, people can give to the money to the one in the US for a fee below that of WU and your wall tax, and the person they want to have it can get it from the contact in Mexico. At the end of the day the contact in the US sends the money to an account in Hong Kong, which is then sent on to a Bank in Mexico.

Tax that.
 
sunmaster14 said:
Trump will in fact build a wall. Yes, it might be a fence in some places, and it might be electronic surveillance near natural barriers in other places, but it will be effective in that, when completed, it will reduce illegal immigration by a factor of 10.
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That's got to be an amazing wall when you consider that over 50% of illegal immigrants arrive legally on a visa or border crossing card and then over stay, or cross into the US over the Canadian border. How will your wall stop 80% of that?
 
(11) Ending tax subsidies for renewable energy and electric cars (good);
(12) Shelving of carbon emission reduction nonsense once and for all (good);
(13) Opening up more federally controlled areas for gas and oil drilling (good);
(14) Approving Keystone pipeline (good);
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Why is this "pave the whales" **** still a conservative agenda? Is anti-conservation of resources good stewardship of the nation? Are conservatives that convinced some magical skydaddy solution will save us from ourselves?

What a bunch of crap. Recycling your beer cans and not ******** the bed is not liberalism, it's just sensible.
 
rustypouch said:
Doom.

But seriously, I'm worried that the whole country will follow Kansas. Look how Republican policies of low taxes and government cuts has worked for them.
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I know a few minutes is a long time in Trumpland, so this might be hopelessly out of date but:

http://www.politicususa.com/2016/08/21/kansas-economy-dies-trump-appoints-brownback-advisor.html

Kansas' Governer Sam Brownback (surprised he got that far with that name) was appointed Trump economic adviser earlier this year.
 
Here is the priority list for 'draining the swamp':
Trump said:
* FIRST, propose a Constitutional Amendment to impose term limits on all members of Congress;

* SECOND, a hiring freeze on all federal employees to reduce federal workforce through attrition (exempting military, public safety, and public health);

* THIRD, a requirement that for every new federal regulation, two existing regulations must be eliminated;

* FOURTH, a 5 year-ban on White House and Congressional officials becoming lobbyists after they leave government service;

* FIFTH, a lifetime ban on White House officials lobbying on behalf of a foreign government;

* SIXTH, a complete ban on foreign lobbyists raising money for American elections.
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1. McConnell has already disavowed this.
2. Could be interesting. Could destroy public services pretty quickly. Could trim the fat.
3. We tried one in, one out in the UK. It seemed to be quietly dropped. Just doesn't work practically, but as an aim to reduce regulation it gives a sense of direction.
4 and 5. First amendment?
6. Seems very easy to bypass. Might also affect donations to the Republicans from individuals with offshore accounts.

I also hear from the radio that he is going to end cronyism while appointing his daughter to something.
 
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"Protecting workers":

Trump said:
* FIRST, I will announce my intention to renegotiate NAFTA or withdraw from the deal under Article 2205

* SECOND, I will announce our withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership

* THIRD, I will direct my Secretary of the Treasury to label China a currency manipulator

* FOURTH, I will direct the Secretary of Commerce and U.S. Trade Representative to identify all foreign trading abuses that unfairly impact American workers and direct them to use every tool under American and international law to end those abuses immediately

* FIFTH, I will lift the restrictions on the production of $50 trillion dollars' worth of job-producing American energy reserves, including shale, oil, natural gas and clean coal.

* SIXTH, lift the Obama-Clinton roadblocks and allow vital energy infrastructure projects, like the Keystone Pipeline, to move forward

* SEVENTH, cancel billions in payments to U.N. climate change programs and use the money to fix America's water and environmental infrastructure
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1 and 2. Does GOP actually want to attack trade?
3. This has been bizarre throughout, since it formed part of the (just) 8 policies on Trump's website. Why do something which will have zero real world impact except harm relations with one of, if not the, biggest creditors the US has? He is oddly hung up on this.
4. Wait and see what this actually means.
5. What Jrrarglblarg said.
6. I don't know anything about this.
7. See 5.
 
Restoring constitutional law:

Trump said:
* FIRST, cancel every unconstitutional executive action, memorandum and order issued by President Obama

* SECOND, begin the process of selecting a replacement for Justice Scalia from one of the 20 judges on my list, who will uphold and defend the Constitution of the United States

* THIRD, cancel all federal funding to Sanctuary Cities

* FOURTH, begin removing the more than 2 million criminal illegal immigrants from the country and cancel visas to foreign countries that won't take them back

* FIFTH, suspend immigration from terror-prone regions where vetting cannot safely occur. All vetting of people coming into our country will be considered extreme vetting.
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1. If they are unconstitutional...
2. ...oh, they will be now.
3. On day 1? Doesn't this mean cutting off funding to the FBI and the Secret Service in, for instance, Washington DC? Feels like this hasn't been thought through.
4. As this is about constitutional law, I assume the constitution will still apply to these people until they are expelled. That'll mean that without extra funding, the rate will be about the same as under Obama, less if the attrition mentioned before takes hold. I don't think we'll see many visa cancellations.
5. This is essentially meaningless and is presumably included so he can point it out to the islamophobes. Semantically I don't understand how all vetting can be 'considered' extreme vetting - if it is all, then by definition it isn't extreme. 'Considering' something as something else also doesn't change its essence. Or does 'consider' actually here mean 'become'? If so, does that mean that a visitor from Canada will be vetted in the same way as a visitor from Somalia? Sounds expensive.
 
Mods, please feel to break this up or direct me to do so if you feel it is too large.

Acts of government in the first 100 days (assuming they can repeal twice as many as new acts):

Trump said:
1. Middle Class Tax Relief And Simplification Act.
2. End The Offshoring Act.
3. American Energy & Infrastructure Act.
4. School Choice And Education Opportunity Act.
5. Repeal and Replace Obamacare Act.
6. Affordable Childcare and Eldercare Act.
7. End Illegal Immigration Act
8. Restoring Community Safety Act.
9. Restoring National Security Act.
10. Clean up Corruption in Washington Act.
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1. 4% growth? 25 million jobs? Good luck with that. Also should have included motherhood and apple pie in the name. I also note he says the middle class will get the biggest tax cut at circa 35% while in the same paragraph noting a 57% cut for business. Or does he mean the middle class will get a 35 percentage point cut, presumably resulting in massive handouts?

2. Not sure how these tariffs will work. Does he mean to put tariffs on imports from US companies with overseas production or to tax all imports from countries with a US-owned manufacturing presence? Does that fit with historic GOP policy?

3. Public-Private partnerships are very good at siphoning public money into private hands. On the other hand it could be a good economic spur, if infrastructure improvements deliver economic growth.

4. Nice. Taking money from poor people to subsidise rich people's kids' education.

5. As expected, but no detail on how to help poor people get coverage. Worrying is the idea of speeding up drug trials - these are there for safety, and the pharmaceutical industry isn't exactly covered in glory when it comes to the safety/profit trade off.

6. Some good here, though again has potential to funnel funds from poor to rich; savings matching for low income families could offset this a bit - if people have money to save.

7. The Wall Act. I'm no expert in law, let alone international law, but surely writing into US law that another country will pay for its policy is just posturing. Someone else mentioned this, but would placing a boundary along the land nearest to the border cede control of all of the Rio Grande to Mexico?

8. Potentially good, though if it were that easy, wouldn't previous (Republican) Presidents have done this? Assuming they weren't blocked by the Houses, that is. Perhaps I have watched too much of The Shield, but I'm also worried about a Federal CRASH unit.

9. Massive spending, though the VA stuff appeals to me. That said, giving veterans vouchers for private health care effectively states you aren't going to repair general health care any time soon.

10. See above.
 
I've just had a flash of inspiration.

I reckon Trump's presidency will be a lot like Silvio Berlusconi's time as prime minister in Italy
 
TragicMonkey said:
That's not how "CEO Executive" President Trump operates. He comes up with the idea, and orders other people to carry them out. It's up to them to figure it out, or he'll stop by to demand an accounting and declare "You're Fired!"
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Gee, that reminds me of someone else who did that...
 
Sunmaster14, he is not going to "fix" Obamacare. The costs of healthcare do not go down.It'sa monopoly.
https://www.google.com/amp/www.lati...-obamacare-20161110-story,amp.html#pt0-947140
From there:
Trump also put in a pitch for reestablishing high-risk pools, public insurers which would enroll customers with especially costly healthcare needs. Trump called this “a proven approach to ensuring access to health insurance coverage for individuals who have significant medical expenses and who have not maintained continuous coverage.”

The truth is almost exactly the opposite. As we explained in April, when high-risk pools were being promoted by House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), the only thing these pools have been proven to be in the 35 states that tried them before the ACA is a failure. The pools were never adequately funded, which prompted states either to place caps on enrollments or saddle members with sky-high, unaffordable premiums.
 
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