What's next? A Trump presidency prediction thread.

baron said:
I predict he won't build a wall, but will build another fence that will end up covering some weak spots in the existing arrangement. He will call it 'a barrier'. He will claim that Mexico paid for it, albeit indirectly, via raising of import tariffs.
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THIS. He puts up a few hundred miles of Barbed Wire and claims he has a wall.
 
dudalb said:
Which is why Cruz will probably refuse it.
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I disagree. A Supreme Court seat guarantees Cruz the opportunity to make a difference for decades to come. Staying in the senate means having to fend off a likely primary challenge in 2 years before he'd even have a chance to challenge Trump in 2020, and such a challenge would still probably be a long shot. If a Trump presidency goes badly, voters are likely to go for a Democrat in 2024, and if it goes well, Pence will be the likely Republican nominee, not Cruz.

I think Cruz would take the sure thing rather than the risky path. Trump's motives for offering the position to him are basically irrelevant, a Supreme Court seat is still pretty damned attractive.
 
Ziggurat said:
I disagree. A Supreme Court seat guarantees Cruz the opportunity to make a difference for decades to come. Staying in the senate means having to fend off a likely primary challenge in 2 years before he'd even have a chance to challenge Trump in 2020, and such a challenge would still probably be a long shot. If a Trump presidency goes badly, voters are likely to go for a Democrat in 2024, and if it goes well, Pence will be the likely Republican nominee, not Cruz.

I think Cruz would take the sure thing rather than the risky path. Trump's motives for offering the position to him are basically irrelevant, a Supreme Court seat is still pretty damned attractive.
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I agree. I think the recent primaries was the high water mark of his presidential ambitions. The Republican Party doesn't really like him and he may not do so well next time. It makes sense that he will spend the rest of his days attempting to overturn Roe vs Wade and other "liberal" rulings.
 
RussDill said:
Kangaroo court convicts Clinton as part of a drawn out show trial. Bread and circuses for all the Trump supporters so they can feel that they are making america great again.
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That would be brought in District Court in Virginia or DC. That one won't get past the grand jury.
 
Giulaini claims that Trump can build the wall by Executive Order.
Technically he might be right as far as Federal Land is concerned, but a good deal of the Border with Mexico is in private or state lands.raising Yuge legal issues. No to mention he would have to go to congress for additional money.
 
dudalb said:
Giulaini claims that Trump can build the wall by Executive Order.
Technically he might be right as far as Federal Land is concerned, but a good deal of the Border with Mexico is in private or state lands.raising Yuge legal issues. No to mention he would have to go to congress for additional money.
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A large part of the 2000 mile border is in Texas and Arizona, which voted Trump, so I'm sure those people will be more than happy to turn over a chunk of their land to the effort. Of course there is that tiny matter of the 1200 miles where the border is down the center of the Rio Grande River. :(
 
I just saw that Trump thinks he can build the wall with an executive order. He will learn he can't spend that much money without an appropriation which he probably won't get. Land owners will fight the wall and the GOP will probably not support the use of eminent domain. Mexico will not pay for it. The Mexican administration must hand Trump a humiliating defeat for their own domestic political interests. A solid fail on that one will be a good start.

The rounding up 11-12 million people will fail. What he doesn't and likely isn't smart enough to grasp is that each one of those people must be found deportable by an immigrations judge. Each one of them has a right to appeal to the Board of Immigration Appeals and may seek relief from the circuit court of appeals. Just a small fraction of that number would paralyze the courts.

Goading him by doing things like nation wide protests during his inauguration will both embarrass him keep a divided country narrative going. Celebrity Twitter wars will be inevitable and support a narrative of someone only playing at president.
 
Ziggurat said:
That's not the only way to raise the money. We could also tax remittances to Mexico. There's a lot of money there ($24.8 billion in 2015), even a 1% tax would add up.
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Yeah... How would you do this exactly? Check every envelop that is mailed to Mexico to see if it has cash in it you can tax? Force the Banks to add a tax to any money paid from a US to a Mexico Bank A/c? Charge people a tax to carry currency over the border? Raid people that have a system set up where people pay them in the US and then they call their partner in Mexico who pays the person at the other end? Force Western Union to tax all payments sent to Mexico?
 
Craig4 said:
The rounding up 11-12 million people will fail. What he doesn't and likely isn't smart enough to grasp is that each one of those people must be found deportable by an immigrations judge. Each one of them has a right to appeal to the Board of Immigration Appeals and may seek relief from the circuit court of appeals. Just a small fraction of that number would paralyze the courts.
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"We've" gotten around that minor technicality before. :boggled:
 
Craig4 said:
I just saw that Trump thinks he can build the wall with an executive order. He will learn he can't spend that much money without an appropriation which he probably won't get. Land owners will fight the wall and the GOP will probably not support the use of eminent domain. Mexico will not pay for it. The Mexican administration must hand Trump a humiliating defeat for their own domestic political interests. A solid fail on that one will be a good start.

The rounding up 11-12 million people will fail. What he doesn't and likely isn't smart enough to grasp is that each one of those people must be found deportable by an immigrations judge. Each one of them has a right to appeal to the Board of Immigration Appeals and may seek relief from the circuit court of appeals. Just a small fraction of that number would paralyze the courts.

Goading him by doing things like nation wide protests during his inauguration will both embarrass him keep a divided country narrative going. Celebrity Twitter wars will be inevitable and support a narrative of someone only playing at president.
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He thinks he's just going to stick them on a bus, and then send then to Mexico or wherever, no trial, no nothing, just pick them up and ship them out.
 
PhantomWolf said:
Yeah... How would you do this exactly? Check every envelop that is mailed to Mexico to see if it has cash in it you can tax? Force the Banks to add a tax to any money paid from a US to a Mexico Bank A/c? Charge people a tax to carry currency over the border? Raid people that have a system set up where people pay them in the US and then they call their partner in Mexico who pays the person at the other end? Force Western Union to tax all payments sent to Mexico?
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That's not how "CEO Executive" President Trump operates. He comes up with the idea, and orders other people to carry them out. It's up to them to figure it out, or he'll stop by to demand an accounting and declare "You're Fired!"

I think he's going to be horrified when he learns that's not how the presidency works.
 
TragicMonkey said:
That's not how "CEO Executive" President Trump operates. He comes up with the idea, and orders other people to carry them out. It's up to them to figure it out, or he'll stop by to demand an accounting and declare "You're Fired!"

I think he's going to be horrified when he learns that's not how the presidency works.
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He won't do his homework, and will demand others distill the already reduced intelligence to tiny, simple sound bites. This will be his cabinet's best opportunity to Make America Great Again in spite of him, by feeding him data to "guide" his answers.
 
Craig4 said:
I just saw that Trump thinks he can build the wall with an executive order. He will learn he can't spend that much money without an appropriation which he probably won't get. Land owners will fight the wall and the GOP will probably not support the use of eminent domain. Mexico will not pay for it. The Mexican administration must hand Trump a humiliating defeat for their own domestic political interests. A solid fail on that one will be a good start.
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Behind closed doors Trump will tell the Republican leadership in Congress that he will appoint a pro-choice, pro-gay marriage, pro-marijuana judge unless he gets what he wants. He will agree to appoint whatever far right conservative Christian they want...just as soon as they pass a bill funding the wall and authorizing him to renegotiate trade agreements. So begins the tit for tat of really bad ideas.

Trump then discovers that it is not 1982 and there actually are walls and fences along much of the border. He hangs a bit of barbed wire and calls the wall complete...under budget and ahead of schedule. Now, what to do with all that extra money he saved...
 
PhantomWolf said:
Yeah... How would you do this exactly? Check every envelop that is mailed to Mexico to see if it has cash in it you can tax?
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Very little remittance is mailed. Too easy for cash to get stolen. Most of it gets transferred electronically. Very little of it is carried back either. That takes too long, and has its own significant costs.

Force Western Union to tax all payments sent to Mexico?
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Yup.
 
The real question is what position will Alex Jones get in the new administration?

Perhaps Secretary of a new Department of Conspiracy Whackjobs?
 
Trump will in fact build a wall. Yes, it might be a fence in some places, and it might be electronic surveillance near natural barriers in other places, but it will be effective in that, when completed, it will reduce illegal immigration by a factor of 10.

As for Mexico paying for the wall, well, it already has. The Mexican peso was 18.3 to the dollar on Tuesday, and now it is 20.6 to the dollar. It has lost 11% of its value because of Trump's election. Given that we import roughly $20 billion of Mexican goods and services per year, which are actually denominated in pesos, the terms of trade have shifted in our favor by $2.2 billion per year. That seems to cover the rate of spending a wall would require.
 
sunmaster14 said:
Trump will in fact build a wall. Yes, it might be a fence in some places, and it might be electronic surveillance near natural barriers in other places, but it will be effective in that, when completed, it will reduce illegal immigration by a factor of 10.

As for Mexico paying for the wall, well, it already has. The Mexican peso was 18.3 to the dollar on Tuesday, and now it is 20.6 to the dollar. It has lost 11% of its value because of Trump's election. Given that we import roughly $20 billion of Mexican goods and services per year, which are actually denominated in pesos, the terms of trade have shifted in our favor by $2.2 billion per year. That seems to cover the rate of spending a wall would require.
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Sweet Jesus but that's some mathematical judo there. :thumbsup:
 
Looks also like Trump will be able to undo almost every domestic policy implemented by Obama over the last 8 years, in large part because Obama implemented those policies either through legislative legerdemain (i.e. budget reconciliation), executive order, or administrative overreach. Live by the pen, die by the pen, I guess.

Some examples:

(1) Dodd-Frank is gone (and good riddance);
(2) Consumer Review Board is gone (and good riddance);
(3) Obamacare employer mandates are gone (good);
(4) Obamacare coverage mandates are gone (good);
(5) Force states to accept cross-border sales of health insurance (good);
(6) Some kind of gutting and remaking of Obamacare (hopefully good - we'll see);
(7) Estate tax gone (good);
(8) Income tax rates lower (good);
(9) Corporate tax rates lower (good);
(10) Overseas profit repatriation tax holiday (better than not, but sort of meh);
(11) Ending tax subsidies for renewable energy and electric cars (good);
(12) Shelving of carbon emission reduction nonsense once and for all (good);
(13) Opening up more federally controlled areas for gas and oil drilling (good);
(14) Approving Keystone pipeline (good);
(15) Expanding navy (good);
(16) Reforging all of the gold in Fort Knox to spell out "DONALD J. TRUMP" in 10 foot high solid gold letters on the White House lawn (uber cool).
 
sunmaster14 said:
Looks also like Trump will be able to undo almost every domestic policy implemented by Obama over the last 8 years, in large part because Obama implemented those policies either through legislative legerdemain (i.e. budget reconciliation), executive order, or administrative overreach. Live by the pen, die by the pen, I guess.

Some examples:

(1) Dodd-Frank is gone (and good riddance);
(2) Consumer Review Board is gone (and good riddance);
(3) Obamacare employer mandates are gone (good);
(4) Obamacare coverage mandates are gone (good);
(5) Force states to accept cross-border sales of health insurance (good);
(6) Some kind of gutting and remaking of Obamacare (hopefully good - we'll see);
(7) Estate tax gone (good);
(8) Income tax rates lower (good);
(9) Corporate tax rates lower (good);
(10) Overseas profit repatriation tax holiday (better than not, but sort of meh);
(11) Ending tax subsidies for renewable energy and electric cars (good);
(12) Shelving of carbon emission reduction nonsense once and for all (good);
(13) Opening up more federally controlled areas for gas and oil drilling (good);
(14) Approving Keystone pipeline (good);
(15) Expanding navy (good);
(16) Reforging all of the gold in Fort Knox to spell out "DONALD J. TRUMP" in 10 foot high solid gold letters on the White House lawn (uber cool).
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And he'll pay for #15 how?
 
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