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Do polls underestimate Trumps support?

If Nevada is any indicator of how the polls are fairing, it's going to be a long Tuesday for the Orange Menace and the GOP.

On the presidential (and maybe applies to the U.S. Senate, too), some math still holds:
----Both candidates get 90 percent of base and split*indies: Clinton by 4, 29,000 votes
----Both candidates get 90 percent of base, Trump wins*indies*by 10: Clinton by 2, 17,000 votes
----Both candidates get 90 percent of base, Trump wins*indies*by 20: Clinton by 3,000 votes
Note: Trump is not going to get 90 percent of the GOP base, and with all of those votes banked even before the*Comey*letter, it's almost impossible for him to win*indies*by 20. (Romney won*indies*by 7.) You see his challenge.
If Clinton holds her base here (data I have seen shows she is, and minority*turnout is going up) and turnout patterns don't dramatically shift in the last two days of early voting, she can't lose Nevada. Solid lean Clinton right now.
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The GOP is on track to potentially get wiped out in a state that is listed as leans GOP in most current polling.
 
And the "Lost Tribe" or "Huge Hidden Vote" factor is often talked about, seldom happens.
 
Shalamar said:
This election isn't about voting for whom you feel is the better candidate. It's all about voting AGAINST the candidate you hate the most.
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It's about voting against an incompetent con man who acts like a child half the time.
 
dudalb said:
And the "Lost Tribe" or "Huge Hidden Vote" factor is often talked about, seldom happens.
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Seldom happens? So it happens? Can you give me any examples of when it might have happened?
 
dudalb said:
And the "Lost Tribe" or "Huge Hidden Vote" factor is often talked about, seldom happens.
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Hell forget just "Vote" the idea that there was some huge "Silent Majority" of Americans without a voice in government was probably one of the biggest talking points either directly or indirectly in American politics for better part of a decade.
 
Here's an interesting study that shows that there is such a thing as "Shy Trumpers" but concludes their totals are not significant enough to sway the election. They compared the results of polling voters by phone and by online form. (In both cases, the polled were opt-in; that means they actually phoned the pollster, rather than have the pollster phone them). One result jumped out at me:

Trump does perform worse on the phone with a live interviewer if the respondent has a college degree (Bachelor’s or post-grad). Trump performs 14 percentage points worse among college grads in live phone interviews.
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That's a pretty significant difference, but even in the online survey Hillary beat Trump by 7 percentage points.
 
dudalb said:
And the "Lost Tribe" or "Huge Hidden Vote" factor is often talked about, seldom happens.
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I think the question being asked here is slightly different. It seems quite plausible to me that some voters may be reluctant to admit they are deplorable. I doubt it's enough to sway the election unless things are really tight.
 
The whole landline versus cell phone in polling thing is really,really.old. Most legit pollsters know that and adjust.
 
dudalb said:
The whole landline versus cell phone in polling thing is really,really.old. Most legit pollsters know that and adjust.
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Adjusting or renorming polls is a dangerously seductive practice. Mitt Romney was actually surprised he lost because his people had been adjusting the "likely voter" totals to show him with a commanding lead.
 
Here is an article that seems apropos:
http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/11/donald-trump-bradley-effect

There was some evidence of a Bradley effect in Morning Consult’s survey, which was conducted last weekend and released Thursday. When speaking to a live pollster, Hillary Clinton led Trump by five points, 52 to 47, whereas if asked in an online poll or an automated call—two situations in which there was no possibility of social judgment—that gap narrowed to three points, with Clinton leading 51 to 48. Still, the effect was marginal, and Clinton won in both scenarios.
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Loss Leader said:
Adjusting or renorming polls is a dangerously seductive practice. Mitt Romney was actually surprised he lost because his people had been adjusting the "likely voter" totals to show him with a commanding lead.
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I used the wrong word in the term Adjusting vis a vis landline vs cellphone. By that is meant that polling companies make sure their sampling includes both landline and cellphone users.
Anyway, there are other factors in this election that might counter the hidden vote. Hilary's far better ground game, for instance, and the impact of early voting,which might dampen the effect of last minute surprises.
 
Clinton will win by a landslide

You heard it here first

The media are just hyping it up.

She will have the majority of the swing states sewn up and that is all she needs
 
cullennz said:
Clinton will win by a landslide

You heard it here first

The media are just hyping it up.

She will have the majority of the swing states sewn up and that is all she needs
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Lol. No, she won't.

ETA: I'm not claiming to have a strong opinion anymore on who will win, as I honestly have no idea at this point. But I do know that she will not win in a landslide.
 
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