Election Night Dinner - Fresh Crow!

The Don said:
I think there are lots of paths. A lot of people genuinely seem to believe that Trump has some kind of economic and financial magic bullet and will genuinely be able to create 5%, 6%, 7%, 8% growth. They really think that he will be able to renegotiate the US' international trade agreements to be strongly in the US' favour and that he'll be able to negotiate away the deficit. They genuinely believe that a combination of lower taxes and more favourable economic deals will usher in an era of prosperity for all*.
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I choose to believe that the majority of those people are willing to wait for an alternative that didn't get conceived in and raised in a sewer.
 
NoahFence said:
I choose to believe that the majority of those people are willing to wait for an alternative that didn't get conceived in and raised in a sewer.
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If they're willing to believe the **** that Trump is selling on the economy then they're not the type of people given over to long contemplation and/or good at being patient. A Trump Presidency would be like a Twinkie, all kinds of delicious anticipation ahead of time and then bitter regret and an unpleasant aftertaste once consumed.
 
eeyore1954 said:
The same as it collapsed after Brexit?
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Yep, the same as the complete freefall of the Pound. The one advantage was being able to hire some British session players for a recent song of mine, at dirt cheap rates.
 
TubbaBlubba said:
This would be true if the results each state was independent, but they are not. Given an unlikely victory in one state, the conditional probability of winning demographically similar state rises drastically.
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I was just going to point that out. It's something Nate Silver has been discussing on 538 chats a lot during the last few weeks.
 
eeyore1954 said:
Pretty much like most presidencies.
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I've seen a lot of conservatives saying that Trump wouldn't be worse than any other President (like you seem to be, here). It seems to me to be a way to allow oneself to vote for a candidate who displays none of the qualities conservatives claim are important except for the all important "R" by his name. Kind of a "he can't be as bad as they say, so voting for a short-tempered, vindictive bully with a short attention span and no knowledge of politics or statesmanship won't really cause any problems."
 
The Atheist said:
Oh, I am looking, and that's the problem.

Both Brexit and the Tories underwent very late surges that carried them home.

Have you found any similar instances of huge late surges like Trump seems to be getting?
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Actually Brexit didn't get a late surge, that is a myth that seems to be gathering strength though. For all of the referendum campaign the two camps were very close to one another in polling. The bigger mistake in polling was the last UK General Election where polling was wildly innacurate.
 
eeyore1954 said:
It might pay to buy a crow or at least find out where you can buy one. But I certainly don't think you should open the cookbook yet.

But I wouldn't trust my appraisal. A year ago I never thought Trump could possibly win the republican nomination.
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The UK General Election was such a foregone conclusion that Milliband had picked out curtains for 10 Downing Street. The polls showed him with a good lead.

He lost.

Brexit...

I've cooked a pie, to be ready in case we go 3/3.
 
The Atheist said:
The UK General Election was such a foregone conclusion that Milliband had picked out curtains for 10 Downing Street. The polls showed him with a good lead..
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I don't remember that, I thought that it was always going to be a close run thing with the Tories being the largest single party - the surprise was the clear majority.
 
The Don said:
I don't remember that, I thought that it was always going to be a close run thing with the Tories being the largest single party - the surprise was the clear majority.
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Yes, the major parties were close, but it was being shown quite strongly in the polls that Labour + allies would have a decent margin.

They did not.
 
I'm as much concerned by the numbers being reported as by the "tone".

I watched the World Series last night. (Cubs win!) Trump and Clinton both had commercials, and lots of them. Both were of the mudslinging variety, but somehow, I don't know exactly why, Trump's just seemed better. Clinton's seemed petty somehow.

It's hard for me to judge these things. I am not swayed by the typical voter appeals. I look at the commercials I see and can't imagine being swayed by them, but obviously some people are, or at least the most highly paid professionals in the field think they will be. However, the "feel" of the news coverage, the commercials, the sound bites on the news, all have a Trump-ish feel to them.

I find that disturbing, but what can you do. I've decided to vote for Hillary instead of Gary Johnson myself, just because I couldn't live with myself thinking that, while my one vote does not realistically matter either way, I still couldn't bear to think I helped put that perpetual adolescent into the White House.
 
The Atheist said:
The UK General Election was such a foregone conclusion that Milliband had picked out curtains for 10 Downing Street. The polls showed him with a good lead.

He lost.

Brexit...

I've cooked a pie, to be ready in case we go 3/3.
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Provisional crow. I'm readying a bib. And to think, one short week ago I was dancing on his grave.
 
varwoche said:
Provisional crow. I'm readying a bib. And to think, one short week ago I was dancing on his grave.
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That's exactly why I've got the pie ready - to remind me to never, ever to start mocking before the count has been finalised.

I am going to be dancing down Queen Street naked while singing Rule Britannia if that piece of orange puke wins. Crow seems mild by comparison.
 
The Don said:
I don't remember that, I thought that it was always going to be a close run thing with the Tories being the largest single party - the surprise was the clear majority.
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He's making it up.
As he is with the Brexit thing.
It's the only way to get it to fit his theory.
 
Trump will win.

And when he does, I am going to be basking in the anguish of liberals for quite some time.
 
Racist. Misogynist. Serial liar. Conspiracy theorist. Con artist. Off-the-meter megalomaniac. Ignorant doofus extraordinaire.

If that doesn't sing out Hail to the chief, nothing does.

Pass the salt please.
 
The Atheist said:
I'm just going to carve this up and eat the first piece while it's fresh.

There was me, taunting Trump voters, because he could not possibly win...

538's odds having gone from 93% to 67% in about 3 days makes me think there's going to be an awfully sad world come Wednesday.

91% of bets being laid on the election in the past couple days have been on Mr Trump.

C'mon and get it while it's hot.

Mmmm, crow...
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FiveThirtyEight had a headline about a week ago saying that the Cubs stand even less of a chance winning than Trump!

I still think Hillary will win, but I also thought Trump would never make it to the primary candidate, and then again I thought he was sunk about a month ago. You may be eating that crow yet.
 
Meadmaker said:
I'm as much concerned by the numbers being reported as by the "tone".

I watched the World Series last night. (Cubs win!) Trump and Clinton both had commercials, and lots of them. Both were of the mudslinging variety, but somehow, I don't know exactly why, Trump's just seemed better. Clinton's seemed petty somehow.

It's hard for me to judge these things. I am not swayed by the typical voter appeals. I look at the commercials I see and can't imagine being swayed by them, but obviously some people are, or at least the most highly paid professionals in the field think they will be. However, the "feel" of the news coverage, the commercials, the sound bites on the news, all have a Trump-ish feel to them.

I find that disturbing, but what can you do. I've decided to vote for Hillary instead of Gary Johnson myself, just because I couldn't live with myself thinking that, while my one vote does not realistically matter either way, I still couldn't bear to think I helped put that perpetual adolescent into the White House.
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Don't worry. You can vote for Johnson pretty safe in the knowledge he can't win.
 
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