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Election Night Dinner - Fresh Crow!

I'm not worried.

538 is a huge outlier. Other ones have it at 87-99% Hillary.

538 has ridiculous swings that make no sense. Like a random poll from Missouri having Donald +9 swinging their forecast 1.4 points. WTF? Romney won that state by 10 points.

[imgw=640]http://i.imgur.com/uAHB7Je.png[/imgw]
 
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Tony Stark said:
I'm not worried.

538 is a huge outlier. Other ones have it at 87-99% Hillary.

538 has ridiculous swings that make no sense.
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I'm actually basing my crow pie much more on the amazing surge being shown at RCP.

Curious as a non-American - does a surge like this have any historical precedent? It seems very reminiscent of the Tories' surge at the last UK election, and we know how that ended up.
 
The Atheist said:
I'm actually basing my crow pie much more on the amazing surge being shown at RCP.

Curious as a non-American - does a surge like this have any historical precedent? It seems very reminiscent of the Tories' surge at the last UK election, and we know how that ended up.
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RCP's final in 2012 was off by more than 3 points in Romney's favor.

It is a right leaning website and they pick and choose which polls they want to include in the average.
 
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The Atheist said:
I'm just going to carve this up and eat the first piece while it's fresh.

There was me, taunting Trump voters, because he could not possibly win...

538's odds having gone from 93% to 67% in about 3 days makes me think there's going to be an awfully sad world come Wednesday.

91% of bets being laid on the election in the past couple days have been on Mr Trump.

C'mon and get it while it's hot.

Mmmm, crow...

[qimg]http://i150.photobucket.com/albums/s97/TheAtheist/1240605367-eating-crow_zpsxejc4uax.jpg[/qimg]
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I can picture being on the winning side and I can picture being on the losing side. For that reason I will not taunt people before the election nor gloat over them after.

$110,000 worth of bets made by people not in the United States. Several days before the election. How is that indicative of any results.

But now that you brought it up, what do you think the total amount wagered on the election would be if gambling on elections were legal in America and every convenience store that sold pick-3 tickets was willing to sell election tickets (allowing bets as small as $1 and no bets above $500,000). The state wouldn't even need the 50% vig they use on daily tickets. Five percent of all money wagered might add up.
 
You have to master goat-entrail-reading and pay attention to the other factors, TA.

First, learn the RCP tricks. They put any state with under an aggregate of +5 in the "toss-up" column. In actual votes, 5% is a lot to make up in 5 days.

Clinton is +4.7 in NH. Mostly due to closing, but also due to a Republican leaning poll.

In that particular state, scroll down and note that the "Average" is only covering polls of 8 days. 22-30 Oct. If you notice the excluded poll based on the cutoff date, it would've put Hillary at +6. Other states have conveniently different date ranges on the polls from week to week.

They also do this in the national polling. It's a subtle but obvious way of keeping the race tight. They also include a couple of rather dubious polls. Yeah, they make news, but RCP doesn't weight a Remington Research or a Gravis or a Rasmussen - they count a poll as a poll.

The betting market is getting a whole lot of "Uh oh, Brexit all over again!" money, but not enough to move it below an aggregate of 85% chance of Hillary winning. That's an aggregate of all bookie sites.

PEC - Princeton University has bragging rights to the only person who got the two Nate Silver missed, correct. They show 99% probability of a Clinton win.


That's okay - Donald wants to spend money in NH? Good. Keep him out of states that matter.
 
Foolmewunz said:
You have to master goat-entrail-reading and pay attention to the other factors, TA.
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Oh, I am looking, and that's the problem.

Both Brexit and the Tories underwent very late surges that carried them home.

Have you found any similar instances of huge late surges like Trump seems to be getting?
 
The Atheist said:
Oh, I am looking, and that's the problem.

Both Brexit and the Tories underwent very late surges that carried them home.

Have you found any similar instances of huge late surges like Trump seems to be getting?
Click to expand...

Yeah, this one's down to the wire but with 24/7 news and Twitter and Instant Everything, the time frames may be a little compacted. Romney closed on Obama - about 4.5%, but further out, and was actually leading with a week to go.

What has to be seen is whether the previously very forgetful electorate carries the Comey surprise to election day. We haven't seen a cross section of polls from Nov 1 - 2. There's as much Dem spin in the news cycle as there is "burn the witch". How much of it takes and how much cushion does she have in the 25% of the electorate that's already voted. The early vote is significant this year, as will be a rather late GOTBV(get out the black vote) which was lagging but is picking up.

I don't see PA, VA, MI, WI, MN, ME or NH going Republican. The only question seems to be CO, but that still looks solid (a couple of unaccredited polls skew it), plus she has strong possibilities to offset that in NC, NV and FL.
 
Foolmewunz said:
What has to be seen is whether the previously very forgetful electorate carries the Comey surprise to election day.
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It seems that Hillary-related things are very persistent in the media whereas Trump related things tend to blow past in a couple of days (the sexual assault admission and subsequent allegations were an exception but even these only lasted a week). Is it because Trump is so lovable/notorious (delete as applicable) that people just move on and no (additional) stain remains ? Is it because there is so much wrong about Trump that the media (and people) just cannot focus on any one thing, or small group of things ?

Come election day the Comey surprise will IMO still be firmly fixed in people's minds whereas all the **** Trump has said or done will ignored.
 
538 likes to think terms of "Paths to Victory" of which Hillary has many more than Trump.

Right now, outside of invoking something which is essentially a political miracle, Trumps only "Path to Victory" is to take every swing state and score a major upset in a "Leaning Blue" state.

Hillary already has enough "safe" electoral votes to, again outside again a political miracle, to not need that many things to fall into place.

Basically Hillary wins within a statistical certainty the second one swing stay goes her way. Trump has to hope for a series of statistically unlikely events to all happen.
 
Ladewig said:
I can picture being on the winning side and I can picture being on the losing side. For that reason I will not taunt people before the election nor gloat over them after.

$110,000 worth of bets made by people not in the United States. Several days before the election. How is that indicative of any results.

But now that you brought it up, what do you think the total amount wagered on the election would be if gambling on elections were legal in America and every convenience store that sold pick-3 tickets was willing to sell election tickets (allowing bets as small as $1 and no bets above $500,000). The state wouldn't even need the 50% vig they use on daily tickets. Five percent of all money wagered might add up.
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If you were smart, your bet would be a hedge. If you are a Clinton supporter, you bet 500 on Trump. If Clinton wins you will feel fine. If Trump wins at least you have a few hundred extra bucks.
 
BobTheCoward said:
If you were smart, your bet would be a hedge. If you are a Clinton supporter, you bet 500 on Trump. If Clinton wins you will feel fine. If Trump wins at least you have a few hundred extra bucks.
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If it were only that easy...
problem is, if you have 500 to blow on Trump, you likely have an investment portfolio, and stand to lose at least 10X that much when the market collapses after a Trump win.
 
stanfr said:
If it were only that easy...
problem is, if you have 500 to blow on Trump, you likely have an investment portfolio, and stand to lose at least 10X that much when the market collapses after a Trump win.
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You mean double over night.
 
JoeBentley said:
Basically Hillary wins within a statistical certainty the second one swing stay goes her way. Trump has to hope for a series of statistically unlikely events to all happen.
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This would be true if the results each state was independent, but they are not. Given an unlikely victory in one state, the conditional probability of winning demographically similar state rises drastically.
 
The Atheist said:
I'm just going to carve this up and eat the first piece while it's fresh.

There was me, taunting Trump voters, because he could not possibly win...

538's odds having gone from 93% to 67% in about 3 days makes me think there's going to be an awfully sad world come Wednesday.

91% of bets being laid on the election in the past couple days have been on Mr Trump.

C'mon and get it while it's hot.

Mmmm, crow...

[qimg]http://i150.photobucket.com/albums/s97/TheAtheist/1240605367-eating-crow_zpsxejc4uax.jpg[/qimg]
Click to expand...

It might pay to buy a crow or at least find out where you can buy one. But I certainly don't think you should open the cookbook yet.

But I wouldn't trust my appraisal. A year ago I never thought Trump could possibly win the republican nomination.
 
stanfr said:
If it were only that easy...
problem is, if you have 500 to blow on Trump, you likely have an investment portfolio, and stand to lose at least 10X that much when the market collapses after a Trump win.
Click to expand...
The same as it collapsed after Brexit?
 
NoahFence said:
What possible path does Trump have to win though?

Voter apathy is the only thing I can think of.
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I think there are lots of paths. A lot of people genuinely seem to believe that Trump has some kind of economic and financial magic bullet and will genuinely be able to create 5%, 6%, 7%, 8% growth. They really think that he will be able to renegotiate the US' international trade agreements to be strongly in the US' favour and that he'll be able to negotiate away the deficit. They genuinely believe that a combination of lower taxes and more favourable economic deals will usher in an era of prosperity for all*.

Regarding voter apathy, a combination of that and "Oh **** it, what have we got to lose ?" may also add significantly to those voting for him.


* - forgetting of course that prosperity for all came because unions and other forms of workers' collective action made sure that those doing the hard work shared in the spoils - something that Donald Trump specifically and the party for which he is the Presidential candidate generally are dead set against.
 
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