And Eric Trump's charity
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articl...-spent-880k-at-family-owned-golf-resorts.html
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articl...-spent-880k-at-family-owned-golf-resorts.html
Trump could win presidency: Yes or No?
- Thread starter Joey McGee
- Start date
The Atheist
The Grammar Tyrant
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- Jul 3, 2006
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- 36,414
1 Nobody was "whining".
2 The RCP average is +2.5% to Clinton, which is infinitely less than one would reasonably expect given the egregiously awful behaviour of Trump over the past week. I see today the gap has opened to almost margin of error at +3.1%, with some big numbers coming in for Clinton. This has happened before and each time his numbers have come back and hers have dropped.
3 I couldn't care less who's POTUS, because I can guarantee it won't affect me, so no chicken little about it. I am the ultimate impartial observer, although I hope my American friends don't have to see him inaugurated next January.
4 I found the LAT poll interesting, nothing more, nothing less.
5 Your defensiveness says a lot about you.
Well so far taking a pessimistic view has proved to be right.
Any one of the following (by no means a comprehensive list) would have finished off any other candidate and yet Trump is still in the game:
- Not releasing his tax returns
- The actions of his "charity"
- The "Mexican Judge" affair
- Insulting a gold star family
- His miserable debate peformance
- Trump University
Sure he takes a short-term hit in the polls but after a few days they rebound. There appears to be an enormous amount of goodwill for Trump (or, I guess badwill for Hillary) which means that almost half the U.S. electorate are willing to overlook all of these.
Foolmewunz
Grammar Resistance Leader, TLA Dictator
Alec Cowan can better explain the methodology of the LA Times/Dornslife poll, but it's been anomalous. Personally, I think they got a bum sampling and they're stuck with it. Other polls have a bad week when they show anomalous results? They make up for it in the next polls, hopefully.
They have 3000 respondents, the same 3000 and they re-poll them. Their initial polls were showing a dead heat when the RCP average and all other aggregators had Hillary at +6 to +8. They're currently at about that same level (as the RCP average is now +3.2 for Hillary).
The more interesting thing is that Trump's holding that 5 point lead with them but less respondents have been answering. They're down to 2300+ in their last sampling. They normally have at least 10% not responding (of their 3000) but this is over 20%. Those people are not all undecided, they merely decided not to respond that day (and the last few days).
The Atheist
The Grammar Tyrant
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Yeah, it's an odd one. Someone obviously screwed up to have such a wide outlier.
aleCcowaN
imperfecto del subjuntivo
Speaking of the USC Dornsife / LAT poll, a week after the debate this is the change
Election forecast:
Trump ---> dropped 0.1%
Clinton ---> dropped 0.1%
What did change was the likelihood of supporters really turn out to vote:
Trump ---> dropped from 85.2% to 84.5%
Clinton ---> increased from 82.5% to 85%
It's not clear if both values are to be multiplied (supposedly not, as the first one wouldn't be a forecast, but still not clear what they are measuring)
What the poll show is that support for Clinton dropped a bit among women and increased among men, while support for Trump dropped a bit among men but increased among women.
Election forecast:
Trump ---> dropped 0.1%
Clinton ---> dropped 0.1%
What did change was the likelihood of supporters really turn out to vote:
Trump ---> dropped from 85.2% to 84.5%
Clinton ---> increased from 82.5% to 85%
It's not clear if both values are to be multiplied (supposedly not, as the first one wouldn't be a forecast, but still not clear what they are measuring)
What the poll show is that support for Clinton dropped a bit among women and increased among men, while support for Trump dropped a bit among men but increased among women.
It's interesting that fat-shaming a beauty pageant winner gives you a bump among women voters
I could understand Trump getting a bump with a demographic if the numbers were very, very low but it puzzles me how anything he or Hillary have done over the last week has made him more appealing (or her less appealing) as a Presidential candidate to any demographic.
This has to be bad for the Hillary campaign. He keeps screwing up and they keep dishing the dirt and yet his support is not evaporating and indeed it's firming up in some major demographics
aleCcowaN
imperfecto del subjuntivo
It's interesting that fat-shaming a beauty pageant winner gives you a bump among women voters
I could understand Trump getting a bump with a demographic if the numbers were very, very low but it puzzles me how anything he or Hillary have done over the last week has made him more appealing (or her less appealing) as a Presidential candidate to any demographic.
This has to be bad for the Hillary campaign. He keeps screwing up and they keep dishing the dirt and yet his support is not evaporating and indeed it's firming up in some major demographics
This election is all about hatred and resentment. As simple and regrettable as that. And as the campaigns, forum threads and office chat only reinforce those (in this campaign no candidate would drop an original idea not even if you grabbed them by their feet and shook them) we're facing a WWI front like situation.
The only game changers here are: one of the candidates dropping dead (about 0.5-1% likelihood) or ISIS blowing 20 blond kids at Sunday school in Virginia and 20 teenagers in a McDonald's in Pennsylvania on Sunday 6th.
The mall attack in Minnesota drove Trump figures up 2%-3%. Similar effect with the killings in Washington state and a perpetrator who wouldn't talk.
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Mader Levap
Graduate Poster
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Haha, no. Any nonsense going on in USA impacts entire planet, indirectly including you and me. If you think Trump being POTUS won't affect you, you are in denial.
eeyore1954
Philosopher
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- Jun 9, 2006
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- 6,811
Trump could win presidency: Yes or No?
When he first said he would run I thought his chances were extremely small of even getting the nomination. So much for my prognostication skills.
But now my answer is Yes.
But he seems to try to do things to hurt his chances. Fortunately for him his opponent is Hillary Clinton. In my opinion Hillary Clinton is worse.
Fortunately for Hillary Clinton Donald Trump is her opponent.
When he first said he would run I thought his chances were extremely small of even getting the nomination. So much for my prognostication skills.
But now my answer is Yes.
But he seems to try to do things to hurt his chances. Fortunately for him his opponent is Hillary Clinton. In my opinion Hillary Clinton is worse.
Fortunately for Hillary Clinton Donald Trump is her opponent.
NoahFence
Banned
Regnad Kcin
Penultimate Amazing
While entirely non-scientific, and so FWIW, I've noticed over the decades a not-that-rare degree of cattiness among women. Maybe it's competitiveness or low self regard that spills over into words and/or behavior.The Don said:
I can easily imagine a woman, even an overweight one, thinking/saying, "It's a beauty pageant. You're not supposed to be fat, loser."
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CapelDodger
Penultimate Amazing
It's just that time of the month, y'know?It's interesting that fat-shaming a beauty pageant winner gives you a bump among women voters
Foolmewunz
Grammar Resistance Leader, TLA Dictator
dudalb
Penultimate Amazing
It's interesting that fat-shaming a beauty pageant winner gives you a bump among women voters
I could understand Trump getting a bump with a demographic if the numbers were very, very low but it puzzles me how anything he or Hillary have done over the last week has made him more appealing (or her less appealing) as a Presidential candidate to any demographic.
This has to be bad for the Hillary campaign. He keeps screwing up and they keep dishing the dirt and yet his support is not evaporating and indeed it's firming up in some major demographics
You don't seem to get a basic fact of American Politics;That either major party could run Mickey Mouse (as the saying goes) on their ticket and get an automatic 43%.For a candidate to win by 4 or 5% of the vote is a huge landslide.
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aleCcowaN
imperfecto del subjuntivo
And, isn't there a general perception that's a problem?
dudalb
Penultimate Amazing
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PartSkeptic
Illuminator
Voters take complex matters and reduce them to simple emotion choices.
Trump the outsider businessman (someone who represents the American dream) who is open about things, and can be trusted to defend anything he says or does (even when it makes people wince).
or
She (who shall not be named) as the establishment insider (distrusted as both a lawyer and a politician) and is secretive and appears to be driven by money and power.
No doubt I will see a raft of "simple" alternatives.
Of course, the emotionally biased on both sides will not change, but continue to rationalize, and reinforce each other on their choice of forum.
Another reason for a move to Trump. The undecided public are seeing the media spin (which Trump is telling them to look for), and are no longer just accepting the bias against Trump. It starts to have the opposite effect.
Trump the outsider businessman (someone who represents the American dream) who is open about things, and can be trusted to defend anything he says or does (even when it makes people wince).
or
She (who shall not be named) as the establishment insider (distrusted as both a lawyer and a politician) and is secretive and appears to be driven by money and power.
No doubt I will see a raft of "simple" alternatives.
Of course, the emotionally biased on both sides will not change, but continue to rationalize, and reinforce each other on their choice of forum.
Another reason for a move to Trump. The undecided public are seeing the media spin (which Trump is telling them to look for), and are no longer just accepting the bias against Trump. It starts to have the opposite effect.
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aleCcowaN
imperfecto del subjuntivo
