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What if ...

seayakin

Graduate Poster
seayakin
Joined
Nov 30, 2003
Messages
1,437
Sometimes its fun to speculate with hypotheticals and given the relative unpopularity of both candidates. It seems that if we had a Romney/Clinton election or Trump/Biden election it would be far different and I suspect we might have a truly runaway election. In the case of Biden vs. Trump, Biden would have the campaign infrastructure and would be carrying in some of Obama's current popularity without the negatives associated with Clinton.

I think a Romney/Clinton election would be closer but still strongly in favor of Romney because the Romney campaign would be well organized hammering at Hillary's weaknesses.

Would either scenario be a landslide?

I don't thing we are seeing a landslide now although I agree with others who have said that current and past polling favors Hillary but it is not by any means a slam dunk.
 
seayakin said:
Sometimes its fun to speculate with hypotheticals and given the relative unpopularity of both candidates. It seems that if we had a Romney/Clinton election or Trump/Biden election it would be far different and I suspect we might have a truly runaway election. In the case of Biden vs. Trump, Biden would have the campaign infrastructure and would be carrying in some of Obama's current popularity without the negatives associated with Clinton.

I think a Romney/Clinton election would be closer but still strongly in favor of Romney because the Romney campaign would be well organized hammering at Hillary's weaknesses.

Would either scenario be a landslide?

I don't thing we are seeing a landslide now although I agree with others who have said that current and past polling favors Hillary but it is not by any means a slam dunk.
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For sake of discussion, what do you consider a landslide in a presidential election ? Either/both popular vote and EC ?
 
Biden would cream Trump. He's got the charisma, and Trump's verbal diarrhea would excuse any gaffes he produces during the race which would otherwise have sunk his run.
 
seayakin said:
I think a Romney/Clinton election would be closer but still strongly in favor of Romney because the Romney campaign would be well organized hammering at Hillary's weaknesses.
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It would? Are we pretending that the perception that Romney was a money-grubbing, flip-flopping panderer who cared about nothing but catering to the ultra-rich no longer exists?

At best, Romney versus Clinton would be a dead heat, and he'd probably still end up looking vile in comparison.
 
seayakin said:
Good point and for the sake of simplicity, I will stick with the EC. Take all states but 2 (assuming the two aren't one of the top 5 largest states). I was looking at this wikiepedia entry as past examples of a landslide (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landslide_victory#Presidential).
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Under that definition I doubt that you'll ever see a "landslide" again because the majority of States are now locked into to one side or the other. Even with a 20 point shift you won't see a number of states switch from red to blue or vice versa these days, 21 of them based on the 2012 elections, and those are reasonably evenly spread between both Democratic (9) and Republican (12)
 
The problem is that millions of people (more than any other R. candidate in history) voted for Trump. They did it for a reason, and they did it because the Romney-style Republican establishment was not meeting their desires. If Romney were the candidate, he might not get his same 2012 support. He might find a lot of disaffected would-be voters staying home (which, to some extent, actually happened in 2012).

But Romney/Clinton would be a nail-biter.
 
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