Trump could win presidency: Yes or No?

[aleCcowaN]

According to the latest polling, Clinton is +1 in Texas, which is the reddest of red states. That just underlines the depth of Trump's problems.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...he-advantage-over-trump/ar-AAiyooe?li=BBnb7Kz

Survey Monkey is behind. In spite of the evasive explanation, all the political polls based in Survey Monkey I've seen are skewed towards Democrats, even more than Dornsife USC is skewed towards Republicans.

Other recent polls form varied sources give Trump + 5 in Texas, though in an ample sense it is as a battle state as they are Pennsylvania and Virginia in the opposite sign.

 

[Dr. Keith]

Other recent polls form varied sources give Trump + 5 in Texas, though in an ample sense it is as a battle state as they are Pennsylvania and Virginia in the opposite sign.

For a republican to be only +5 in Texas is a story all in itself. I thought it would take two or three more cycles for it to be that close.

Demographics. Even in the land of angry white men, there at that many angry white men.

 

[aleCcowaN]

For a republican to be only +5 in Texas is a story all in itself. I thought it would take two or three more cycles for it to be that close.

Demographics. Even in the land of angry white men, there at that many angry white men.

Well, recently "Latinos" surpassed non-"Latino" Whites as the largest ethnic/racial group in Texas, and they are, let's say, 80% of Mexican origin or descent. That must have something to do with these figures.

 

[The Atheist]

People talk about the easy ride the media is giving Hillary. Meanwhile, imagine if she'd shown up with bobby pins showing, holding her combover in place. Four hundred pieces would be written about it. Yet, very little mention of Donald doing that. He's still being given a free ride.

This piece covers that fact perfectly: https://www.washingtonpost.com/blog...sedly-the-corrupt-one/?utm_term=.fc62e8292e93

 

[Minoosh]

Well, recently "Latinos" surpassed non-"Latino" Whites as the largest ethnic/racial group in Texas, and they are, let's say, 80% of Mexican origin or descent. That must have something to do with these figures.

For several election cycles media have been speaking of the "Latino" or "Hispanic" vote but I'm not sure how good turnout has been.

Trump's core supporters want all illegal immigrants to be rounded up and deported, period. I don't know why he doesn't just own that. The deportation force could go door-to-door and arrest anyone who doesn't have proof of legal status. The crowds would eat it up.

 

[Foolmewunz]

For several election cycles media have been speaking of the "Latino" or "Hispanic" vote but I'm not sure how good turnout has been.

Trump's core supporters want all illegal immigrants to be rounded up and deported, period. I don't know why he doesn't just own that. The deportation force could go door-to-door and arrest anyone who doesn't have proof of legal status. The crowds would eat it up.

We must be listening to two different campaigns. From what I hear, that is what he's owning. Generous media types are saying that there's just no there, there. He won't actually say what his plans are, so in some self-absorbed notion of fairness, they refuse to put the point right out there.... "The non-plans of the Trump camp leave the door open for a Trump Presidency to do just as Breitbart and Sessions and Coulter, his chief advisors, propose..... ROUND 'EM UP AND SHIP 'EM OUT."

Trump knows the media won't tackle him on the topic so continues to dance (very poorly, as witnessed in Detroit) and his reprobate bigot supporters hear what they want to hear, and what he wants them to hear.... that he's staying with his promises of building a wall and forcing all illegals out BEFORE they can be considered for amnesty or a path to legality or citizenship.

 

[Eddie Dane]

For several election cycles media have been speaking of the "Latino" or "Hispanic" vote but I'm not sure how good turnout has been.

Trump's core supporters want all illegal immigrants to be rounded up and deported, period. I don't know why he doesn't just own that. The deportation force could go door-to-door and arrest anyone who doesn't have proof of legal status. The crowds would eat it up.

I think there are two reasons why he doesn't own that.

1. He cant actually deport all illegals, so that would disappoint his more extreme supporters.
2. It would drive away swing voters and Latino voters.

Best to keep it as vague as possible until after the election. In the mean time hint at a combination of harsh and compassionate measures so everybody hears what they want to hear.

This is standard political MO.

 

[Dr. Keith]

Well, recently "Latinos" surpassed non-"Latino" Whites as the largest ethnic/racial group in Texas, and they are, let's say, 80% of Mexican origin or descent. That must have something to do with these figures.

It has been a slow change and those of us watching it really didn't expect it to come out in national elections for another cycle or two, at least. Trump has pushed that forward. He has invigorated that part of the population that didn't previously bother to vote.

If it has down ballot consequences then it will be a real change.

 

[PartSkeptic]

Trump promises to be the tough law and order president. He says he will not let other countries simply refuse to take back their criminals.

Why does anyone have a problem with that? Will it cause WW3 because Trump does not understand diplomacy?

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2016/09/0...k-ex-con-gunman-who-shot-fresno-sheriffs.html

…The convicted rapist who shot two corrections officers in Fresno, Calif., last week was an illegal immigrant who was only in the U.S. because his homeland refused to take him, federal officials confirmed Wednesday.

Thong Vang, a 37-year-old Laotian national who completed a 16-year rape sentence two years ago and was slated for deportation, instead was freed when Laotian officials did not respond to a request by Immigration and Customs Enforcement to assist in his removal.

…By contrast, some 67,792 Mexican nationals slated for removal could not be deported and nearly 29,000 Cubans were also freed after deportation failed.

The issue made national headlines in June, when the Inspector General for the Department of Homeland Security, ICE’s parent agency, blasted the department for not doing more to ensure deportation of a Haitian national who murdered a Connecticut woman after being released from prison.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Trump promises to be the tough law and order president. He says he will not let other countries simply refuse to take back their criminals.

Why does anyone have a problem with that? Will it cause WW3 because Trump does not understand diplomacy?

I'm more concerned with his idea that we can just steal the natural resources of other countries.
is he going to occupy Inner Mongolia to secure Rare Earth deposits?

 

[The Don]

Trump promises to be the tough law and order president. He says he will not let other countries simply refuse to take back their criminals.

Why does anyone have a problem with that? Will it cause WW3 because Trump does not understand diplomacy?

It's unlikely to cause WW3, instead it will cause a large number of international incidents, each one of which will be minor but every one of which will degrade the relationship between the U.S. and the other country. Then, some time in the future when the U.S. needs something from that other country; deportation of a suspect or criminal wanted in the U.S.; assistance in helping to persuade a third country to do something in the U.S.' interests or even clamping down on terrorists, drug cartels or whatever; that country may be disinclined to help out.

Of course the U.S. is powerful enough to just go in and seize that wanted person, force the third country to do what the U.S. wants or carry out operations to attack the terrorists or drug cartels without the host country's agreement but now the problem has be ratcheted up a few notches and a minor international incident has become a medium sized international incident.

So there's no WWIII but there's unnecessary tension due to the boorish way in which the initial incident was handled.

 

[PartSkeptic]

(snip)

So there's no WWIII but there's unnecessary tension due to the boorish way in which the initial incident was handled.

Prediction: WHEN Trump becomes president there will be a whole lot less international tension. He wants trade deals where both parties win, but where the US does not get screwed.

Common interest will mean working together. eg With Russia against ISIS.

Obama. Dutertes insult was not aimed at me personally. Reminds me of a politician named Chamberlain. However un-PC Duterte was/is, he is right that the US must not treat lesser countries in a lesser way and lecture them. Trump will not do that. Nor will he tolerate insults towards himself or America.

Duterte is a symptom of the global overcrowding where a sector of the poor are turning to crime and drugs, and the rest of society is getting frustrated with the words of do-nothing politicians.

Walls in Israel, walls in Macedonia (?), and walls in Calais France. Everyone wants walls. In South Africa there are many walled estates to keep out the "immigrants" who indulge in "ethnic shopping", which is what they see as their "right" in order to redress the economic imbalances.

(BTW - With the Zika threat to pregnant women, the burkini and the full hijab with mesh veil could catch on in Florida - but only if Hillary becomes president.)

 

[aleCcowaN]

Prediction: WHEN Trump becomes president there will be a whole lot less international tension. He wants trade deals where both parties win, but where the US does not get screwed.

... and the seven little men started to march singing "heigh-ho! heigh-ho! heigh-ho, heigh-ho, heigh-ho!"...

 

[Dr. Keith]

Common interest will mean working together. eg With Russia against ISIS.

What makes you think Russia has a problem with ISIS?

When they have assets in the area they are attacking Kurds and Rebels, not ISIS.

What common interest do you suppose there is?

 

[PartSkeptic]

... and the seven little men started to march singing "heigh-ho! heigh-ho! heigh-ho, heigh-ho, heigh-ho!"...

I have been very good at predictions. When I claim that there was a supernatural element in some of mine, skeptics say that I just have "good intuition" and analysis skills. Hmmm - does it matter?

Wake up and taste the porridge (Oops - wrong fairy tale).

Just be careful of shiny red apples offered by a hoarse woman with a basket of them.

 

[PartSkeptic]

What makes you think Russia has a problem with ISIS?

When they have assets in the area they are attacking Kurds and Rebels, not ISIS.

What common interest do you suppose there is?

Good point. ISIS is one anti-government force.

Why is the US supporting "rebels" in a supposedly sovereign country?

Would Trump continue to support them? I doubt it.

 

[aleCcowaN]

I have been very good at predictions.

Link three threads please.

 

[NoahFence]

Prediction: WHEN Trump becomes president there will be a whole lot less international tension.

Yea, everybody will want to distance themselves from the US. Or blow us up.


Sounds fun.

 

[The Don]

Prediction: WHEN Trump becomes president there will be a whole lot less international tension.

Doubtful, the proposal to forcefully deport people against the wishes of the receiving country is one example, the furore over his recent visit to Mexico is a second and his idiotic pronouncements over the Middle East is a third of cases where Trump ups the tension.

He wants trade deals where both parties win, but where the US does not get screwed.

No, he has repeatedly said that he wants trade deals where the US is a clear winner

Common interest will mean working together. eg With Russia against ISIS.

...and the US is already doing that with Russia in Syria but Trump on the other hand seems to want to give Putin carte blanche. Perhaps it's because his business is underpinned by Russian money.

Obama. Dutertes insult was not aimed at me personally. Reminds me of a politician named Chamberlain. However un-PC Duterte was/is, he is right that the US must not treat lesser countries in a lesser way and lecture them. Trump will not do that. Nor will he tolerate insults towards himself or America.

Sounds like the kind of diplomacy which reduces international tension to me. Trump would likely have thrown a hissy-fit which could have turned a small problem into a major incident.

Duterte is a symptom of the global overcrowding where a sector of the poor are turning to crime and drugs, and the rest of society is getting frustrated with the words of do-nothing politicians.

I disagree with your sentiment but what are you advocating ?

Walls in Israel, walls in Macedonia (?), and walls in Calais France. Everyone wants walls. In South Africa there are many walled estates to keep out the "immigrants" who indulge in "ethnic shopping", which is what they see as their "right" in order to redress the economic imbalances.

Trump is the voice of isolationism, sounds like he wants to exacerbate these issues

(BTW - With the Zika threat to pregnant women, the burkini and the full hijab with mesh veil could catch on in Florida - but only if Hillary becomes president.)

Would you care to explain this nonsense above ?

 

[PartSkeptic]

Sometimes cartoonists can do good summaries. Credit Andy Marlette.

Hillary “ Trump is an idiot…
… a wacko, a bigot…
… a conman & an unqualified lunatic..
… who is an embarrassment to this country!”

Pollster “And you are pretty much tied with him.”