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Trump could win presidency: Yes or No?

Nov 4 place your bets

  • Trump will win, 100%

    Votes: 42 16.9%
  • Hilary will win, 100%

    Votes: 82 32.9%
  • Trump will win, but I'm worried Hil might triumph

    Votes: 9 3.6%
  • Hilary will win, but I'm scared the chances.

    Votes: 116 46.6%

  • Total voters
    249
Had to go to the conservative media to find a reference to this.

The "crazy Donald" tag of Hillary may backfire if Trump does more appearances like this one. Humble and soft-spoken. Reading from a paper he said he prepared, it nevertheless appeared to be heartfelt and honest.

I am not sure many here could watch it because he honors God and those who believe and worship.

What he has done is differentiate the past Church leadership of the civil rights movement with the current leaderless anger and hate in the streets. Subtle - a strong message.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfZDKWo2LxE

Full Speech: Donald Trump Speaks to African American Church in Detroit 9/3/16


Want to know your enemy? You cannot if you dismiss and ignore such events.

Makes me wonder. If Hillary is expecting "crazy Donald" on the stand, and a "racist" who visits the Mexican president, Black Churches and Flood districts, she may be in for a surprise.
 
Seriously. I watched CNN international, and got nothing but a couple of pictures. I am curious if the local (US) news covered it?

Censorship applies only to the government preventing coverage of events. Every domestic and foreign news service makes its own decisions about what is and isn't newsworthy.
 
Censorship applies only to the government preventing coverage of events. Every domestic and foreign news service makes its own decisions about what is and isn't newsworthy.

There was a press charter plane commissioned by Donald's campaign that was directed to Phoenix instead of Mexico.


The campaign itself deliberately avoided coverage of the event by the press pool that has been following his campaign. The optics of the Mexico trip weren't great. He had that, "When you've just been told you'll have to pay for your imaginary wall, you're short on cash and your advance team forgot an American flag to put behind you," look:

[IMGw=640]http://i1070.photobucket.com/albums/u492/rfstack/000000_29.jpg[/IMGw]

They did a similar thing with the press today during his African American "outreach" at the church in Philadelphia. Forced the press out in the middle of it.



I have no idea why the Pastor put a Tallit on him but the whole thing looks weird again.

 
...but that is entirely dependent on how much the US needs those goods, the availability of those goods from other countries, the lead time on delivering those other goods, And the price of those goods from other countries.

The U.S. is a net consumer of just about everything. In a material sense we need the rest of the world more than it needs us.

Only "need" is not quite the right word - it's about what Americans want. Coffee and chocolate and cocaine, minerals mined elsewhere so others bear the environmental cost, clothes manufactured abroad for lower wages, reliable fuel-efficient cars, affordable gadgets, fresh-cut flowers flown in from Colombia ... At least we've come up with decent domestic alternatives to heroin.

Illegal immigration is a problem, but it's way down, as is violent crime. Trump conflates illegal immigration and crime, then promises to keep people safe from both.

Donald Trump:
For instance, we have to listen to the concerns that working people have over the record pace of immigration and its impact on their jobs, wages, housing, schools, tax bills, and living conditions.

He tosses in this highly dishonest "record pace" thing then reels off anecdotes, the better to breed fear and anger. Then he outlines things he will do to stop it - things that are already being done.

Moving forward, we will issue detainers for all illegal immigrants who are arrested for any crime whatsoever, and they will be placed into immediate removal proceedings
We will ensure that E-Verify is used to the fullest extent possible under existing law, and will work with Congress to strengthen and expand its use across the country.

Notice how lightly he treads on the issue of punishing employers. Nothing about penalties whatsoever. There's no reward for demonizing American businesses. There is for demonizing illegal immigrants though.

This thread is about his whether he could win. Yes, he could and it's stupid to say or pretend otherwise. John McCain wasn't hateful enough to energize the aptly-named GOP "base." Trump is but demographics won't favor him if turnout is high. I don't think he's a hater on the order of Tom Tancredo but he cynically employs hate tactics which in a way makes him worse.
 
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Anyone see this part of Trumps Mexico speech in the mainstream media?

Is this censorship by omission? Or - "Quick get the negative-spin pundits to trash the speech."

I had to search for a transcript.

This was covered on Al Jazeera, CNN, Fox, the BBC... to name the places I saw it. It wasn't covered "live", necessarily, but if you watch the news and commentary shows, they showed the tape. Funny, though, how Paul Simon was right... "A man sees what he wants to see and disregards the rest." Your bias is that you think this was "outreach" or some sort. What Hispanic leaders saw was Trump bragging again about how many Latinos he knows - without actually proffering any - and double-emphasizing how many he employs. And more important, he's in Mexico and isn't addressing Mexico or Mexicans, but Mexican-Americans. His way of saying to El Presidente and to the Mexican public, "Hey, you don't matter. I'm here for the photo op."

And speaking of wheeling out the spin doctors.... have you actually seen a moderate or liberal say that this was a successful moment for Trump. Ann Coulter loved it. Sean Hannity almost wet himself with excitement. "My, how Presidential. Oooh, what a statesman." Most people, and Trump's inner circle in particular, view it as a disaster. What do you think inspired the Get Tough speech in Arizona? He stepped in **** on his Mexico adventure.


Had to go to the conservative media to find a reference to this.

The "crazy Donald" tag of Hillary may backfire if Trump does more appearances like this one. Humble and soft-spoken. Reading from a paper he said he prepared, it nevertheless appeared to be heartfelt and honest.

I am not sure many here could watch it because he honors God and those who believe and worship.

What he has done is differentiate the past Church leadership of the civil rights movement with the current leaderless anger and hate in the streets. Subtle - a strong message.




Want to know your enemy? You cannot if you dismiss and ignore such events.

Makes me wonder. If Hillary is expecting "crazy Donald" on the stand, and a "racist" who visits the Mexican president, Black Churches and Flood districts, she may be in for a surprise.

And well you should have had to go to conservative media. Does the mass media owe Trump a free commercial for every awkward stunt he pulls. The speech is available but the news was covered for days.... the news you conveniently ignore:
> This was a staged event.
> No press allowed.
> No questions that the candidate wasn't apprised of.
> Scripted - 100% no matter what they claim - answers. Not just answers he had time to prepare, but SCRIPTED.

The ten minute speech that you seem so moved by was awkward and offered nothing. He "wrote this the other day"? Ha, I laugh at your naivete! He wrote not a word of that... it's not in his cadence, it uses words he never uses, it's grammatically correct.... All signs that it was written by one of the hacks in the back room.

Content: Absolutely nothing. Self-congratulations for Donald Trump for showing up. Almost like he's aware that he's never been to the inner city, he's never going back and that they live in a world he is totally unaware of. Platitudes on how he's going to rebuild Detroit, but no programs.
Tepid response from the congregation except when he was saying nice things about their Bishop/Doctor/Pastor....

Awkward beyond awkward when he made a point of citing scripture in the correct format. When he did so, the congregation applauded. He thought it was because they recognized the verse from John. They were applauding because he'd previously been called out for not even knowing the correct format with which to cite bible verses.

These are people who would've been aware of that, so their applause was "Attaboy!" He then tried to "make one" with the crowd by saying that "most groups I speak to don't know that (recognize the verse) but we know it". "We"? WE??!! Donald's including himself as a devout Christian? That's just funny. And I only laugh ironically; the fundie base of the GOP laughs derisively. He's not even a member of the church he claims to attend "as often as he can" in NYC, and he seems to attend any old church when he's at Mar-A-Lago. It was a condescending statement, based on pure fantasy... he never spouts verse so how would "most groups I speak to don't know that..." be anything but ********?

(Then again... the PTL folks he was addressing? In entertainment, you "paper the house" to get people who will cheer. The "Bishop" couldn't even do that. The place was 2/3 empty. And it's essentially a private church. Just who appointed the Bishop to be Bishop? I guess next year he'll make himself Cardinal? Maybe Pope? What with the prayer shawl, maybe Grand Rabbi?)

Seriously. I watched CNN international, and got nothing but a couple of pictures. I am curious if the local (US) news covered it?

I have as little access to news networks as you do but I had no trouble finding coverage of the short speech in Mexico. Yet, again, do you think every word he utters should get live coverage? The networks and news outlets covered it, but as it bumped right into his bombastic and worrisome performance in Arizona, they played the two against each other. I guess you're proposing that we let his photo op in Mexico stand alone as a set piece and not compare and contrast to his behavior the very same day when he's back in the arms of his comfy America First posse?
 
How many points does China's enormous and public snub to Barack Obama give Trump?

Seems to me that his schtick of "The world sees us as weak" is going to be well-served by the deliberate action of making sure USA was the only nation at G20 whose leader was forced to exit from the security ramp.
 
Yeah, no. The optics with Putin are a good contrast with Trump's unawareness that Russia was in Ukraine.

I'm putting this in the "Trump Could Win" thread because tonight it seemed I heard the sound of something tipping. I was listening to conservative talk radio. While still maintaining that Trump had a chance, the hosts (someone McNamara, Red Eye radio) all but conceded he will lose. Their show was built around the argument was that Hillary was so bad there was reason enough not to vote for her. They had nothing positive to say about Donald Trump; just hammering on "institutional" Democrat lies (Obamacare sucks, emails, Benghazi). To me it just underscored that they had to play up the "institutional" angle because they know or suspect that Trump's whoppers of mass deception mean just calling Hillary a liar would gain no traction. It also emphasizes that Trump has never had a chance to wield institutional power, so that's better somehow.

They kept saying "lines are open." After 90 minutes someone called in and he said he didn't like either party's choice but Trump's lack of specifics left him underwhelmed. "His supporters don't care about specifics" was the response. Really? Then why weren't any of them calling in? Granted it was 1 a.m. Twice a week I drive 120 miles in the dead of night and conservative talk radio has the most reliable reception.

The subtext seemed to be vote Republican in other races because Democrats were so corrupt. I think Hillary probably has pretty good political negotiating chops and will be able to work with Congress. Some people may think she's too slick an operator but that doesn't look too bad when Trump is schmoozing Putin, seems unaware Russia is in Ukraine and has a spokeswoman called Afghanistan "Obama's war" and that his policies killed someone in 2004. Also people really have no idea what he would do in crisis.

They also said Trump is hearing from within his campaign that it's impossible, based on the electoral map.

If so I could imagine this being a way to give Donald a shred of an honorable withdrawal with Pence becoming the GOP nominee. He could say he's doing it for the good of the country. But I really don't see this happening. I don't think his ego will allow that.
 
Both parties offered almost nothing but bad choices. Predictable, uninspiring candidates.

Hillary is looking really bad from where I'm standing. Not on rational policy points, but on PR.
She looks frail, she is actually not a very good public speaker, her crowds look small and lack energy.
Trump's short simplistic statements and his aggressive style are perfect for social media.

From a marketing and PR perspective, he's killing her IMHO.

The thought of a possibly impulsive, uninformed and inexperienced US president is scary and may still get people to vote Hillary out of fear for the alternative.

But Trump is doing a good job media-wise, and HRC is looking less inspiring than Romney back in the day.

I'd say Trump has a pretty good chance.
 
How convenient.

Hillary - "The 'concussion' or 'brain injury' caused me to forget my training on classified information. I thought a 'C' was a paragraph mark."

Vote for her, but do you buy her stories on her emails?

And the Clinton foundation?

(And who believed Bill about not having sex with that woman?)

She is not looking well in recent pictures. Trump by a landslide!!!

And you think Trump looks well? The colour of his face as he goes off on one of his rants? His inability to remember what he said earlier that same day, never mind last week, month or year? And if his hair is natural as he claims there is something seriously wrong going on there. And lets not forget those horrible bone spurs which prevented his serving in Vietnam. If we are going by health I would worry more about Trump than Clinton.
 
People talk about the easy ride the media is giving Hillary. Meanwhile, imagine if she'd shown up with bobby pins showing, holding her combover in place. Four hundred pieces would be written about it. Yet, very little mention of Donald doing that. He's still being given a free ride.

http://thedailybanter.com/2016/09/d...-place-during-international-press-conference/

Life's a bitch when you don't control the camera angles or production values, eh?
 
People talk about the easy ride the media is giving Hillary. Meanwhile, imagine if she'd shown up with bobby pins showing, holding her combover in place. Four hundred pieces would be written about it. Yet, very little mention of Donald doing that. He's still being given a free ride.

http://thedailybanter.com/2016/09/d...-place-during-international-press-conference/

Life's a bitch when you don't control the camera angles or production values, eh?
Most billionaires I know can afford to hire a hair and makeup stylist who's not a mom helping out backstage at East Danville Elementary's production of "Oliver."
 
The rest of the campaign is gonna be increasingly ugly, I'm afraid. Polls show that Clinton has great support among groups whose attendance during election day is easy to discourage. Trump's Achilles' heel are the debates.

Meanwhile CNN/ORC poll has Trump+1 (the previous one was Clinton+9). Don't worry much about it because although they have a very well designed questionnaire and filter register voters and likely voters well, they seem to have a problem with sampling. They may be using some sort of multistage probabilistic sample by clusters that is not going well with 1,000 individuals.

Anyway, sites including this poll have brought their current averages to Clinton + 3.
 
Anyway, sites including this poll have brought their current averages to Clinton + 3.

...and Remain was at +4 the day before the poll.

Trump is targeting the same people and using many of the same techniques as the Leave campaign in the Brexit vote. Obviously the mechanics of the electoral college makes a major difference in this case but as I've been Cassandra-ing for the last few months - Trump is still in with too good of a shout at the Presidency.
 

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