Trump could win presidency: Yes or No?

[Minoosh]

First comment. Fake and fraudulent social security numbers? You are stating that the illegals commit one crime after the other. In New York City, it was also fake driver's licenses and fake car insurance. Where does it end? Violent crime?

Slippery slope eh? No. If they were essentially violent criminals they could just stay home and violently rip people off. Making it to the U.S. in order to earn low wages and be fleeced on taxes indicates to me that they are not violent criminals.

Many of these "frauds" and "crimes" are preventable. But the current "establishment" (namely Hillary and Co) does not want to change the status quo.

Oh B.S. A net gain to SS of $10B annually benefits lots of folks in the U.S., not just the elite. And these aren't the people Trump means when he says "criminal illegal aliens." Hard to tease conclusions out of his rhetoric sometimes but that's code for "deport the same people Obama is already deporting." Violent criminals, big-time exploitive racketeers etc. Otherwise he wouldn't add the qualifier.

BTW - I had a green card and paid social security for 15 years. And paid a lot because I earned a lot.

Now they tell me I qualify for a decent US pension, but only if I spend 6 months of every year in the USA. Can I get admitted for that purpose even though I lost my green card status?

Beats me.

And as a legal immigrant first to the USA and then to NZ, I did not want illegal immigrants to be given easy treatment. Why should I? It was seriously hard for me, and I was well qualified.

It ain't easy being illegal. It's costly and scary and I'd wager much more "seriously hard" than for a well-qualified individual on a visa.

 

[aleCcowaN]

Bouncing back [Source: Ipsos* for Reuters]

*one of the good ones.

 

[The Don]

Bouncing back [Source: Ipsos* for Reuters]

[qimg]http://i64.tinypic.com/27wucz7.png[/qimg]

*one of the good ones.

Yup

30 years of anti-Hillary rhetoric have taken their toll and it seems very difficult to permanently tarnish Trump's reputation as a successful businessman.

 

[Airfix]

I do not like Donald or Hilary, but I fear Donald Trump more. Just slightly more.
I would not trust either candidate to competently manage the paper clip stocks for a parish council stationery department, never mind running anything more significant.

The lack of better candidates is a tragedy. I just hope Donald loses.

 

[Minoosh]

Question re: poll methodology. A lot of immigrants families have mixed citizenship/residency status and many - maybe most - do not have landlines. I'm wondering if the polls are finding that demographic. The landline issue would not be unique to Latinos, but it might mean undercounting of youth/low income vote.

If they actually vote.

 

[aleCcowaN]

Yup

30 years of anti-Hillary rhetoric have taken their toll and it seems very difficult to permanently tarnish Trump's reputation as a successful businessman.

Clinton is gonna win anyway, don't worry. My point all these weeks is that the structural social hate is stable in the States. So far, I have no reason to change my original forecast.

 

[The Don]

I do not like Donald or Hilary, but I fear Donald Trump more. Just slightly more.
I would not trust either candidate to competently manage the paper clip stocks for a parish council stationery department, never mind running anything more significant.

The lack of better candidates is a tragedy. I just hope Donald loses.

tbh. from what a I understand of your politics (Old-school UK Labour left wing) no major U.S. party is ever going to produce a candidate that you would support.

I do however take issue with your statement that Hillary is not competent. You may not agree with her policies or possibly even her methods but I cannot fathom why you think she is incompetent.

What are the key things that led you to this conclusion ?

 

[PartSkeptic]

Ahhh - negotiation tactics.

Trump can say anything and his supporters say it's negotiation tactics.

Rush Limbaugh just said that all his talk of deportation was just negotiation tactics.

Tactics on getting Mexico to pay. How do you get such an immense extrapolation to deportation? And to everything. Wow.

 

[aleCcowaN]

Question re: poll methodology. A lot of immigrants families have mixed citizenship/residency status and many - maybe most - do not have landlines. I'm wondering if the polls are finding that demographic. The landline issue would not be unique to Latinos, but it might mean undercounting of youth/low income vote.

If they actually vote.

Polls that are made public are mostly of regular or bad quality. Regular polls are conducted by personal interview using a mix of about half landlines and half mobiles. Worse polls are automated or use the Internet.

 

[Ladewig]

I never heard anyone in business say that "the idea is too complex, so let us not do anything".

Sorry Ladewig. Your statement is a cop-out. When an issue is complex, stick to basic core principles which are simple.

I must a ****** awful writing because your reply as absolutely nothing to do with what I was saying. I am baffled as to how got got "let's not do anything" out of "Trump doesn't understand complexity of the federal government."

Trump said he was willing to consider starting a trade war with Mexico to pay for the wall. He believes the US will be in a position of power in such a situation. I am not convinced he understands all the ramifications of such an action. And I am not convinced he will listen to economists explain the drawbacks of such a situation.

Things that work perfectly when building a golf course or even running a property empire do not translate well into being president. Trump is used to making a decision and having it immediately carried out. That's not how things work in Washington.He is also very used to negotiating deals in which he walks away with the money and the other party walks away with nothing. He might burn up a lot of goodwill by being a loud, demanding, conceited "leader."

He is excellent at Celebrity Apprentice. No media personality could make a more complelling version of that show. But running a "reality show" is very, very, very different from running a country.for instance, Trump likes to make things up and becomes upset when challenged on the veracity of his unevidenced claims. That is not going to fly in the international community.

 

[Dr. Keith]

Tactics on getting Mexico to pay.

He didn't even have the balls to ask the president to his face and now you think he is some sort of great negotiator. That is freaking hilarious.

He is a little bully who crows to the crowds and cowers when given a face to face with the man he is crowing about. Pretty weak starting position for any future negotiations. Sad.

 

[The Don]

Things that work perfectly when building a golf course or even running a property empire do not translate well into being president.

And sometimes those same tactics don't work overseas - look at the furore that he managed to create over in Scotland

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/12/donald-trump-scotland-golf/421065/

 

[PartSkeptic]

(snip)

It ain't easy being illegal. It's costly and scary and I'd wager much more "seriously hard" than for a well-qualified individual on a visa.

Half a million illegals a year. Hard to get in? And what about the over-stayers who arrive on a visitors visa? How does one detect terrorists? The criminals have no problem just coming back again and again it would appear.

The rich elite and their backers have no problems it would seem. Don't like the way the US is going - just emigrate with your money. Streisand says she will go to Aussie if Trump wins. She had better be packing her bags.

How does one even know there are 11 million undocumented illegals? Here they underestimate the numbers by a factor of 2 to 4.

And I thought South Africa was loose and inefficient.

 

[aleCcowaN]

He didn't even have the balls to ask the president to his face and now you think he is some sort of great negotiator. That is freaking hilarious.

He is a little bully who crows to the crowds and cowers when given a face to face with the man he is crowing about. Pretty weak starting position for any future negotiations. Sad.

Weakness is in the eye of the beholder.

Trump managed to be seen as presidential. If I had been Peña Nieto I would have had him thrown out.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Tactics on getting Mexico to pay. How do you get such an immense extrapolation to deportation? And to everything. Wow.

you can't connect The Wall with deportation?

Trump can.

 

[bruto]

Free-flowing global money? You really think that bleeding the US without restrictions is a good idea? (BTW - I am sure the drug dealers are all for it.) For how long? Remember that people thought that medical leeches were a good idea.

Trump does not need 100% success. Just enough to let people know it is not "business at usual". Negotiation tactic, or a first attempt.

And since you are so astute, how do you propose to solve the illegal immigrant problem? Assuming you recognize that there are problems!

I am not proposing here to solve the illegal immigration problem, and do not believe that it is incumbent on me to do so in order to point out how crazily stupid a plan is.

What you are suggesting is that Trump would be happy with an unenforceable nuisance law, which is itself, to my mind, an odious thing whose main result will be corruption and selective enforcement.

And when people send their own money to other people, it is not "bleeding the US." It is people spending their own money the way they please, and although one could make an argument that spending it here is better than spending it there, the money is ours, to spend here, there, or not at all, and to suggest that a tyrannical dictator should control where we spend it is repugnant. I bet Mr. Trump does not object to us spending our money on his Chinese crap, does he? I bet Mr. Trump does not object to our spending our money to play golf on his course in Scotland, does he?

Medical leeches are not a useful metaphor for this. The proposal, at least as you have presented it, is stupid, impractical, ruinous, invasive and massively, unspeakably unamerican, and it should mark its originator as utterly unfit for public office.

 

[Airfix]

I do however take issue with your statement that Hillary is not competent. You may not agree with her policies or possibly even her methods but I cannot fathom why you think she is incompetent.

What are the key things that led you to this conclusion ?

Libya.
Specifically her foreign policy role in the run up to the attack on the US Embassy in Benghazi. She had been made aware that the situation in Libya was worsening (had she not ?) She had a duty of care to the Embassy staff, a duty to get them out (am I right ?)

 

[Dr. Keith]

Weakness is in the eye of the beholder.

Trump managed to be seen as presidential. If I had been Peña Nieto I would have had him thrown out.

Have you seen the weak kneed, gushingly saccharine speech he gave? That wasn't even high school junior class presidential. It was weak, tired, and apparently scripted.

If Obama had given that speech Trump would have accused him of treason.

 

[ddt]

Weakness is in the eye of the beholder.

Trump managed to be seen as presidential. If I had been Peña Nieto I would have had him thrown out.

No, just held up 24 hours in a police jail cell while they check his visa.

Seriously though, Nieto had invited him in the first place.

 

[dudalb]

Whatever gains Trump made with his Mexico City photo op he threw away with that hard line speech last night.