Trump could win presidency: Yes or No?

[aleCcowaN]

They were busted in South Carolina.

 

[PartSkeptic]

I'm waiting for cost estimate for The Wall from after the Mexico trip. How much per foot? Non union Mexican labor of course.

USA and Mexican Border

1. The border is 1989 miles (3201 km) long. 5 Million vehicles cross annually.
2. Mexicans in the USA send $24 billion a year to Mexico.
3. 500,000 illegal entries a year into the USA, and about 60% are intercepted.
4. Between 2006 and 2010, 640 miles of fence have been erected at a cost of about $3 million a mile.
5. In 2010 68% of Americans favored building a wall/fence along the border.
6. 1,279 miles along the Colorado and Rio Grande

Israel – West Bank Wall

1. Up to 26 foot high, but much is multi-layered 8 foot electronic fencing.
2. 274 miles complete.

Israel – Egypt Wall

1. 245 miles
2. 3 years to construct.
3. Cost US$ 1.8 million per mile
4. 9,570 illegals in first half of 2012
5. Only 34 illegals in first half of 2013 (main section complete)

Trumps plans

A. Based on Israel/Egypt wall.
B. Will pay for it by barring sending money to Mexico ($24 billion a year), or have Mexico pay $10 billion (one-time) not to bar such payments.
C. Will increase visa fees. An additional $100 per vehicle average would be $500 million a year.
D. It costs $ 4.2 billion a year to house, educate, care for illegals. No illegals saves this per year.
E. The Federal government spends $6.85 million per minute. It would take 20 hours of expenditure to build the wall.

Takes a business man to do the math, and check how others do it. And not very long either. Forget the BS estimates by US anti-Trump pros.

(It took me a couple of hours of internet research to get these facts - not long)

 

[PartSkeptic]

I want you to explain to me, using math, how he's going to win the election when he's going to lose Women, Minorities and sane whites.

Math to explain the whims of women? Even God could not do that!

Kellyanne will help Trump win many of those women over.

He will get help with the minorities, and his policies will sway them.

(BTW - Are you implying that at least 30% of America is insane? And me? )

 

[acbytesla]

Math to explain the whims of women? Even God could not do that!

Funny, but not true. There is no reason to believe that women are any less predictable than men.

Kellyanne will help Trump win many of those women over.
He will get help with the minorities, and his policies will sway them.

KellyAnne is actually an effective political operative. But she is not a miracle worker. Kelly herself said that her job is akin to piloting a super tanker. It takes a long time to get it turn. It's also important to remember there are other influences contradicting Kelly in Trump's inner circle including Bannon, Ailes and the Trumpster fire himself. From what I've seen is Trump may have won back some Republican voters but they have not moved the needlet at all with minorities or women.

As for his policies, Not likely. Not that most people even knkw what his policies are. And if most people actually knew, they would not be swayed...not that Donald has any conviction in those policy proposals. The only thing I like about the Trumpster is his commitment to infrastructure spending. Finally, a Republican...(well sort of) who thinks we should invest in the country.

 

[NoahFence]

Math to explain the whims of women? Even God could not do that!

Kellyanne will help Trump win many of those women over.

He will get help with the minorities, and his policies will sway them.

(BTW - Are you implying that at least 30% of America is insane? And me? )

Alrightie then. I'm convinced.

 

[bruto]

USA and Mexican Border

1. The border is 1989 miles (3201 km) long. 5 Million vehicles cross annually.
2. Mexicans in the USA send $24 billion a year to Mexico.
3. 500,000 illegal entries a year into the USA, and about 60% are intercepted.
4. Between 2006 and 2010, 640 miles of fence have been erected at a cost of about $3 million a mile.
5. In 2010 68% of Americans favored building a wall/fence along the border.
6. 1,279 miles along the Colorado and Rio Grande

Israel – West Bank Wall

1. Up to 26 foot high, but much is multi-layered 8 foot electronic fencing.
2. 274 miles complete.

Israel – Egypt Wall

1. 245 miles
2. 3 years to construct.
3. Cost US$ 1.8 million per mile
4. 9,570 illegals in first half of 2012
5. Only 34 illegals in first half of 2013 (main section complete)

Trumps plans

A. Based on Israel/Egypt wall.
B. Will pay for it by barring sending money to Mexico ($24 billion a year), or have Mexico pay $10 billion (one-time) not to bar such payments.C. Will increase visa fees. An additional $100 per vehicle average would be $500 million a year.
D. It costs $ 4.2 billion a year to house, educate, care for illegals. No illegals saves this per year.
E. The Federal government spends $6.85 million per minute. It would take 20 hours of expenditure to build the wall.

Takes a business man to do the math, and check how others do it. And not very long either. Forget the BS estimates by US anti-Trump pros.

(It took me a couple of hours of internet research to get these facts - not long)

Whoa. That's as much as anyone should need to read here. Trump proposes to outlaw sending money in the mail? And to blackmail another government to allow it to continue? What kind of dictator are we speaking of here. That, sir, is an outrage of such enormously far reaching extent that it is hard even to imagine how any sane person could ever consider it.

If this is true, it should be an instant and permanent disqualification of Trump for anything.

 

[Ladewig]

USA and Mexican Border


B. Will pay for it by barring sending money to Mexico ($24 billion a year), or have Mexico pay $10 billion (one-time) not to bar such payments.

Ok. I have no idea what that means. Obviously, I must be missing a critical piece of the equation. How does stopping money transfers to Mexico increase US government revenues? Are they going to simply seize these transfers? If that is the case people will stop wiring money to Mexico very quickly. Are they going to tax money transfers to Mexico? If so, then entrepreneurs will set up businesses that allow people in the US to transfer money to Canada where it will be immediately transferred to Mexico.

C. Will increase visa fees. An additional $100 per vehicle average would be $500 million a year.

$500 million per year - unless the increased rate reduces the number of people willing to pay the higher rate.


Did you get these facts from Donald Trump's website? I ask because I am unable to access the official Donald Trump website right now. I just did a search on Donald Trump official website and selected the first offered website. Unfortunately, I cannot get past the first page of that website because I cannot figure out how to close the box asking for money (or a login). Yes, I have looked for a small X all over the screen. Yes, I have tried tapping every part of the screen.


Whoops. User error. I just noticed the first website that pops up is not the official Donald Trump website; it is the official Donald Trump donate-money website. It never occurred to me that any candidate would do that.

 

[Mader Levap]

B. Will pay for it by barring sending money to Mexico ($24 billion a year), or have Mexico pay $10 billion (one-time) not to bar such payments.

You seem to not realize this kind of thing is pretty much impossible to do. Real life is not Civilisation V game where you can ransom random leaders for **** and giggles.

 

[bruto]

Ok. I have no idea what that means. Obviously, I must be missing a critical piece of the equation. How does stopping money transfers to Mexico increase US government revenues? Are they going to simply seize these transfers? If that is the case people will stop wiring money to Mexico very quickly. Are they going to tax money transfers to Mexico? If so, then entrepreneurs will set up businesses that allow people in the US to transfer money to Canada where it will be immediately transferred to Mexico.




$500 million per year - unless the increased rate reduces the number of people willing to pay the higher rate.


Did you get these facts from Donald Trump's website? I ask because I am unable to access the official Donald Trump website right now. I just did a search on Donald Trump official website and selected the first offered website. Unfortunately, I cannot get past the first page of that website because I cannot figure out how to close the box asking for money (or a login). Yes, I have looked for a small X all over the screen. Yes, I have tried tapping every part of the screen.


Whoops. User error. I just noticed the first website that pops up is not the official Donald Trump website; it is the official Donald Trump donate-money website. It never occurred to me that any candidate would do that.

I am presuming that the idea is that Mexico so needs the money that the government will pay ten billion to us to resume the transfers. This will, of course, not correct the incredibly stupid and destructive abuse of the mail system that is used to achieve such blackmail, which if it were even half realistically proposed would require the massive suspension of civil liberty, the enormous and mind-bogglingly expensive process of censoring every piece of mail suspected of being destined for purposes not conducive to Trumpishness, and a burdening of the postal service so enormous that it would constitute a nearly complete shutdown.

I should mention a disclaimer, since my wife and I send money to a relative in Georgia who, in turn sends it to a relative in Mexico, whose property was devastated in a hurricane and flood, and one of whose breadwinners was murdered. My sister in law is Mexican and those are her family. The party that has in the past touted "family values" knows absolute **** about what family really is about. If Partskeptic is correct about this, Trump the egregious madman would presumably prevent this through massive interruption of the mails unless the Mexican government coughed up blackmail money, and if it did not, well, they're just beaners I guess. Let them starve.

REally folks, this alone, as far as I can see, is a proposition so enormously stupid, as well as rampantly, flagrantly unamerican, that it could only be made by a lunatic who not only should not be running the country but probably should not be running loose at all. If this is not, in fact a Trump idea but a mistaken one, I apologize to Mr. Trump but not to the author of the proposition.

I find myself back to my old mantra: how stupid is too stupid?

 

[Minoosh]

Whoa. That's as much as anyone should need to read here. Trump proposes to outlaw sending money in the mail? And to blackmail another government to allow it to continue? What kind of dictator are we speaking of here. That, sir, is an outrage of such enormously far reaching extent that it is hard even to imagine how any sane person could ever consider it.

If this is true, it should be an instant and permanent disqualification of Trump for anything.

Yes, it should. The proposal to screw working people out of contractually earned wages in order to extort money from the Mexican government sucks. Then there's this:

Unauthorized Immigrants Paid $100 Billion Into Social Security Over Last Decade

Goss believes that these workers pay an annual net contribution of $12 billion to the Social Security Trust Fund.

 

[Minoosh]

REally folks, this alone, as far as I can see, is a proposition so enormously stupid, as well as rampantly, flagrantly unamerican, that it could only be made by a lunatic who not only should not be running the country but probably should not be running loose at all.

Not a lunatic. A gangster.

 

[PhantomWolf]

Whoa. That's as much as anyone should need to read here. Trump proposes to outlaw sending money in the mail? And to blackmail another government to allow it to continue? What kind of dictator are we speaking of here. That, sir, is an outrage of such enormously far reaching extent that it is hard even to imagine how any sane person could ever consider it.

If this is true, it should be an instant and permanent disqualification of Trump for anything.

Actually money is already a prohibited item in the mail (see #15).

However it also means that he'd have to ban other ways.

• Paying a money broker in the US who messages a Broker in Mexico to pay the recipient.
• Using services such as Western Union or other money transfer services.
• Banks directly transferring money from US to Mexican Bank Accounts.
• Banks indirectly transferring money from US to Mexican Bank Accounts.
• Using online services such as Paypal
• Using online currency such as Bitcoin
• Giving money to a 3rd party to carry over the border to be given to the recipient.

And I an sure that there are a lot of other ways.

 

[bruto]

Actually money is already a prohibited item in the mail (see #15).

However it also means that he'd have to ban other ways.

• Paying a money broker in the US who messages a Broker in Mexico to pay the recipient.
• Using services such as Western Union or other money transfer services.
• Banks directly transferring money from US to Mexican Bank Accounts.
• Banks indirectly transferring money from US to Mexican Bank Accounts.
• Using online services such as Paypal
• Using online currency such as Bitcoin
• Giving money to a 3rd party to carry over the border to be given to the recipient.

And I an sure that there are a lot of other ways.

That link is to "guaranteed postal express."

The post office sells money orders. I rather suspect that they do not violate their own regulations by doing so. People send money in the form of checks and money orders and the like in great amounts. If it were illegal, then Trump could add to his utter stupidity the fact that he would be a criminal for allowing it again after extracting the blackmail from the Mexican government, since it is dubious whether he would be empowered to change postal or any other law singlehanded.

 

[Foolmewunz]

Having lived in a country with no restrictions on transfers other than time delays, I can tell you how it most often works. In Hong Kong, the Indonesian, Thai and Philippine communities are there for the foreign income and they all want to send it back home.

They can go to Western Union and pay usurious exchange rates, but the money will be in the foreign office/bank fairly quickly. But the person getting the money on the other end then pays a fee. It's not huge, but if you're sending two hundred bucks to feed your family in Davao or Khon Kaen, you want every penny going to the recipients.

If you go through your bank, you pay a huge transaction fee, plus they eat up an exchange profit.... that's if you even have a Hong Kong bank account. There are exchange agencies on the street that can handle transactions to some countries and they charge less than WU or the banks, but they're still higher than the grey market, which no government can control. No government!

There are legal HK residents from those countries. They're not identifiable as anything other than Chinese. The Chinese diaspora has been going on for four centuries and many businesses and individuals in those countries are from China. Every foreign worker I know in Hong Kong has an auntie or a friend of a friend who will give you exchange at a half-point below the banks and will charge you nothing in the way of fees. ATMs take cash deposits. You simply go to HSBC or SCB or any bank and put your five thousand HK$ into the person's account. Once they have it, they do their calculations and send an SMS to their cousin in the destination country who transfers the agreed-upon amount to the intended recipient's account.

Short of shutting down the international phone system, there's nothing that can be done to curtail this.

 

[Ladewig]

I am presuming that the idea is that Mexico so needs the money that the government will pay ten billion to us to resume the transfers. This will, of course, not correct the incredibly stupid and destructive abuse of the mail system that is used to achieve such blackmail, which if it were even half realistically proposed would require the massive suspension of civil liberty, the enormous and mind-bogglingly expensive process of censoring every piece of mail suspected of being destined for purposes not conducive to Trumpishness, and a burdening of the postal service so enormous that it would constitute a nearly complete shutdown.

I should mention a disclaimer, since my wife and I send money to a relative in Georgia who, in turn sends it to a relative in Mexico, whose property was devastated in a hurricane and flood, and one of whose breadwinners was murdered. My sister in law is Mexican and those are her family. The party that has in the past touted "family values" knows absolute **** about what family really is about. If Partskeptic is correct about this, Trump the egregious madman would presumably prevent this through massive interruption of the mails unless the Mexican government coughed up blackmail money, and if it did not, well, they're just beaners I guess. Let them starve.

REally folks, this alone, as far as I can see, is a proposition so enormously stupid, as well as rampantly, flagrantly unamerican, that it could only be made by a lunatic who not only should not be running the country but probably should not be running loose at all. If this is not, in fact a Trump idea but a mistaken one, I apologize to Mr. Trump but not to the author of the proposition.

I find myself back to my old mantra: how stupid is too stupid?

Trump's website does have more information on this point. He wants to require wire transfer services to check ID and check for documents showing that the person is in the country legally. As has been pointed out in this forum, there are relatively easy ways to get around such a requirement. The proposed change will probably meet with some resistance from US citizens who will be required to show birth certificates every time they want to wire money.

The website also says that Trump will consider tariffs and trade wars to get the money directly from Mexico.

I have long suspected that Trump has no idea how complex the federal government is and has no idea how much a single action can affect other programs, relations, policies, regulations, pending bills, and budgets.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Such a policy would be devastating for the US high-tech sector: why would anyone from overseas take a job here if they have to fear to be unable to send their money home?

Interfering in the free transfer of money would also hit the US financial sector's standing.

 

[PartSkeptic]

Yes, it should. The proposal to screw working people out of contractually earned wages in order to extort money from the Mexican government sucks. Then there's this:

Unauthorized Immigrants Paid $100 Billion Into Social Security Over Last Decade

First comment. Fake and fraudulent social security numbers? You are stating that the illegals commit one crime after the other. In New York City, it was also fake driver's licenses and fake car insurance. Where does it end? Violent crime?

Many of these "frauds" and "crimes" are preventable. But the current "establishment" (namely Hillary and Co) does not want to change the status quo.


BTW - I had a green card and paid social security for 15 years. And paid a lot because I earned a lot.

Now they tell me I qualify for a decent US pension, but only if I spend 6 months of every year in the USA. Can I get admitted for that purpose even though I lost my green card status?

And as a legal immigrant first to the USA and then to NZ, I did not want illegal immigrants to be given easy treatment. Why should I? It was seriously hard for me, and I was well qualified.

 

[PartSkeptic]

(snip)

I have long suspected that Trump has no idea how complex the federal government is and has no idea how much a single action can affect other programs, relations, policies, regulations, pending bills, and budgets.

I never heard anyone in business say that "the idea is too complex, so let us not do anything".

Sorry Ladewig. Your statement is a cop-out. When an issue is complex, stick to basic core principles which are simple.

I have turned bad businesses around. Many times I try one thing with partial success, then add a new tactic, or another until the "loopholes" are closed, and that the employees know that the basic principle is "you get paid for work you do, not for what you think you can get away with - and I make the business decisions despite listening to all sides".

To which I add, "What is the Federal Government and/or Hillary going to do about the problems with illegal immigrants?"

 

[PartSkeptic]

(snip)

REally folks, this alone, as far as I can see, is a proposition so enormously stupid, as well as rampantly, flagrantly unamerican, that it could only be made by a lunatic who not only should not be running the country but probably should not be running loose at all. If this is not, in fact a Trump idea but a mistaken one, I apologize to Mr. Trump but not to the author of the proposition.

I find myself back to my old mantra: how stupid is too stupid?

Free-flowing global money? You really think that bleeding the US without restrictions is a good idea? (BTW - I am sure the drug dealers are all for it.) For how long? Remember that people thought that medical leeches were a good idea.

Trump does not need 100% success. Just enough to let people know it is not "business at usual". Negotiation tactic, or a first attempt.

And since you are so astute, how do you propose to solve the illegal immigrant problem? Assuming you recognize that there are problems!

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Ahhh - negotiation tactics.

Trump can say anything and his supporters say it's negotiation tactics.

Rush Limbaugh just said that all his talk of deportation was just negotiation tactics.