Corbyn's days (very) numbered?

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

It seems to me that voting for parties which offer stuff "free" happens most often when someone else (often our children and grandchildren, but also other tax payers) has to pay for it.

Lucky this isn't what happens in Scotland then where the taxpayers of Scotland get all their 'free goodies' while more than paying their way in the Union.

Meanwhile our English bretheren decide to spend their money on other things. Then dip their hands in Scottish pockets to pay for it.

 

[3point14]

I agree with your entire assessment, which I snipped for brevity. It seems to me that voting for parties which offer stuff "free" happens most often when someone else (often our children and grandchildren, but also other tax payers) has to pay for it.

Isn't that how progressive taxation is supposed to work? If by 'free stuff' you mean healthcare, policing, social policies and that sort of thing?

 

[Craig B]

... pre-internet, these things aren't immediately quotable chapter and verse.

Useful material can in fact be found online.

Council head of benefits and revenues Caroline Jackson said as well as the 450 people who had paid up, 400 had made arrangements to pay.

"That's about a third of the total number and that is a good result for us," she said.

"It's not too late for the others to get in touch.

"If people don't, they may find an attachment to their benefits or wages.

"Very few will go through our bailiff process. They tend to be the people who look up only when there is a knock at the door."​

The obvious question to ask is whether these persons pursued by the Council were exclusively homeowners, and none of them Council tenants. If so, that would be entirely outrageous.

 

[mifune]

Me and my family had a proper dust up this weekend (we broke the no politics at family gatherings rule...) re: Corbyn and which way we are all going to vote

I am going to vote for Smith but not out of any great admiration of him, I just don't think he is a proven electoral disaster like Corbyn is. Ironically my politics are probably closer to Corbyn's than Smith's but I am a pragmatist. As I shouted at my bro and dad - although I think Blair was tory-lite I still think the 13 years of New Labour rule was a much much better alternative to the tory rule we could have had instead, and the years of tory (mis)rule we have had since. I think the best chance of power is to aim centre left and then you do what good you can in power. Elections are won in the middle not at the edges...

I hear the arguments here (and from some in my family) that its better to 'reform' the Labour party and win a more left wing government in ~2025. But I just don't think its likely, as far as I can tell the electorate in England/Wales/NI is not and has not been that left wing for a very long time (Scotland is seemingly more left wing but is a lost cause for Labour atm, even with Corbyn). I remember the wilderness years of Foot and Kinnock, I liked Kinnock quite a lot at the time but the electorate did not come over. I cannot see how Corbyn - a man who is in no way a charismatic leader or bridge builder and who is already pilloried by the press (maybe unfairly, but that makes no difference to the electorate) is going to change the political landscape. He cannot bring the centre left of his own party with him, how the hell is he going to win over the non hard left voters he needs to win a general election??

Having said all that my prediction is Corbyn will win the leadership vote, that seems inevitable now. It also seems inevitable he will lose the next general election and that Labour will then get a new leader, hopefully someone with some charisma. The real question is how much damage will be done in the meantime, if the party splits it might take an election cycle or two to eliminate the rump party.

 

[jimbob]

Me and my family had a proper dust up this weekend (we broke the no politics at family gatherings rule...) re: Corbyn and which way we are all going to vote

I am going to vote for Smith but not out of any great admiration of him, I just don't think he is a proven electoral disaster like Corbyn is. Ironically my politics are probably closer to Corbyn's than Smith's but I am a pragmatist. As I shouted at my bro and dad - although I think Blair was tory-lite I still think the 13 years of New Labour rule was a much much better alternative to the tory rule we could have had instead, and the years of tory (mis)rule we have had since. I think the best chance of power is to aim centre left and then you do what good you can in power. Elections are won in the middle not at the edges...

I hear the arguments here (and from some in my family) that its better to 'reform' the Labour party and win a more left wing government in ~2025. But I just don't think its likely, as far as I can tell the electorate in England/Wales/NI is not and has not been that left wing for a very long time (Scotland is seemingly more left wing but is a lost cause for Labour atm, even with Corbyn). I remember the wilderness years of Foot and Kinnock, I liked Kinnock quite a lot at the time but the electorate did not come over. I cannot see how Corbyn - a man who is in no way a charismatic leader or bridge builder and who is already pilloried by the press (maybe unfairly, but that makes no difference to the electorate) is going to change the political landscape. He cannot bring the centre left of his own party with him, how the hell is he going to win over the non hard left voters he needs to win a general election??

Having said all that my prediction is Corbyn will win the leadership vote, that seems inevitable now. It also seems inevitable he will lose the next general election and that Labour will then get a new leader, hopefully someone with some charisma. The real question is how much damage will be done in the meantime, if the party splits it might take an election cycle or two to eliminate the rump party.

Yes otherwise you are describing a pressure group, not a political party that aspires to get into a position to implement its preferred policies.

 

[jimbob]

I hope you are right about the headbangers losing... momentum... after the next election, but could easily see "compromise" being blamed.

ETA 1983 didn't stop them

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Yes otherwise you are describing a pressure group, not a political party that aspires to get into a position to implement its preferred policies.

And this is the fundamental unresolved dilemma. To hell with what we want to achieve just get elected on any policy or to hell with getting elected lets stick to our principles.

Personally I have no need of a Tory government in red ties when the blue ones fill that niche already. Id rather have diversity of opinion and let the nation decide. They will vote Tory anyway.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

I hope you are right about the headbangers losing... momentum... after the next election, but could easily see "compromise" being blamed.

ETA 1983 didn't stop them

Or perhaps they will be able to find some principles AND a leader able to persuade others?

 

[Darat]

And again despite the "common sense" view seemingly to be that moving leftwards would hurt Labour election chances the research after the last GE in fact showed the opposite.

The issue Labour and the unions need to address is to make people again understand there is and they are the working class. Unions especially did not do anything when what working class meant changed. Just because someone works in an office "environment" does not mean they aren't working class. For example unions and Labour should be at the grass roots and getting every single employee in this call centres unionised, getting people understanding again what they are and what is in their best interests is how Labour will get into power again as Labour not as Tory lite.

 

[Airfix]

Labour moving leftwards means they actually stand for something.
Owen Smith wants to drag them back to their New Labour comfort zone. A stance which has already cost them two elections. They need to start reconnecting with ordinary people, take onboard what the public want them to do.

Corbyn is doing that, despite resistance from the Parliamentary Party.
When he beats Owen Smith, they'll have to work with him.

 

[3point14]

Labour moving leftwards means they actually stand for something.
Owen Smith wants to drag them back to their New Labour comfort zone. A stance which has already cost them two elections. They need to start reconnecting with ordinary people, take onboard what the public want them to do.

Corbyn is doing that, despite resistance from the Parliamentary Party.
When he beats Owen Smith, they'll have to work with him.

For about six months. Then they'll all decide that the democratically elected leader is a threat to their careers and try to bin him again.


During my lifetime the ratchet has only moved to the right. I'd like it to move back to the left again.

 

[mifune]

I hope you are right about the headbangers losing... momentum... after the next election, but could easily see "compromise" being blamed.

ETA 1983 didn't stop them

This is a definite worry!

 

[mifune]

And this is the fundamental unresolved dilemma. To hell with what we want to achieve just get elected on any policy or to hell with getting elected lets stick to our principles.

Personally I have no need of a Tory government in red ties when the blue ones fill that niche already. Id rather have diversity of opinion and let the nation decide. They will vote Tory anyway.

My problem with this approach is that you are in effect saying that we would have been better off with a tory government in 1997 rather than the Blair government. I fundamentally disagree, and think it is an extremely wrongheaded argument from anyone left of centre. And I really am no fan of Blair, but the New Labour government did a lot of good even if only by virtue of not being as bad as a tory government would have been. For evidence to prove this just look at the record of the tory government(s) since then.

 

[mifune]

Or perhaps they will be able to find some principles AND a leader able to persuade others?

I really hope Labour can find a charismatic leader who is considerably more left wing than Blair. But I would settle for someone who is centrist as a far preferable alternative to another tory government. What use is ideological purity if you are never in power?

 

[mifune]

And again despite the "common sense" view seemingly to be that moving leftwards would hurt Labour election chances the research after the last GE in fact showed the opposite.

The issue Labour and the unions need to address is to make people again understand there is and they are the working class. Unions especially did not do anything when what working class meant changed. Just because someone works in an office "environment" does not mean they aren't working class. For example unions and Labour should be at the grass roots and getting every single employee in this call centres unionised, getting people understanding again what they are and what is in their best interests is how Labour will get into power again as Labour not as Tory lite.

I agree that Labour made a mistake when they went with austerity-lite at the last election. IOW they should have been 'more left wing' in regards to economic policy. But that is not a blank check, just heading more and more to the left will not work imo. I think to change the political landscape in any meaningful way requires firstly a charismatic leader who can win over the middle, then it requires being in power and being a successful prime minister. Thatcher and Blair are the proof of this. Corbyn is not going to do this. I wish it were different.

We will find out though, Corbyn will win this leadership election and in 2020 we will know the result. If he succeeds in bringing the electorate to the left I will be happy and will eat huge portions of crow.

 

[mifune]

Labour moving leftwards means they actually stand for something.
Owen Smith wants to drag them back to their New Labour comfort zone. A stance which has already cost them two elections. They need to start reconnecting with ordinary people, take onboard what the public want them to do.

Corbyn is doing that, despite resistance from the Parliamentary Party.
When he beats Owen Smith, they'll have to work with him.

This is unfair to Smith. Although I think he is a makeweight nothing the policies he is standing on are way to the left of Blair, so I do not think it is right to say he "wants to drag them back to their New Labour comfort zone".

 

[GlennB]

I really hope Labour can find a charismatic leader who is considerably more left wing than Blair. But I would settle for someone who is centrist as a far preferable alternative to another tory government. What use is ideological purity if you are never in power?

What use is power if you're not significantly different from the supposedly hated opposition?

What's Smith's plan? To lie in the manifesto and then shift left once in power? I think not. ffs, the man was a big pharma lobbyist.

The Labour PLP consists mostly of careerist money-grabbers, like Smith, whose primary aim is their careers and their pockets.

 

[jimbob]

There is a reason why there are other forums where right-wing trollish posters are proclaiming that they are voting for Corbyn. It isn't because they think it is good for Labour.

As an aside, I was talking to a colleague over breakfast today. He's Iranian but his parents sent him to Britain when he was a teenager in the 1980s because he was (and indeed still is) rather vocal about the stupidity of the mullahs in Iran. He mentioned that Corbyn often shared a platform with an Iranian Marxist (anti-clerical) organisation right up to the time it was rightly banned as a terrorist organisation.

Corbyn is very close to lots of unsavoury characters. He would be electoral poison - his on the record support of the IRA ( immediately after the Brighton bomb) would be sufficient to show that his disapproval of violence only stretches to that by the West.

My colleague's teenage son is also very keen on politics and did work experience in a labour MP's office. The staff said that Corbyn is an utter "*****" to many of his colleagues, and he also repeated the claim, which I have seen elsewhere that it's an open secret that John McDonnell is running the show.

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...labour-leadership-foreign-policy-antisemitism

 

[mifune]

What use is power if you're not significantly different from the supposedly hated opposition?

What's Smith's plan? To lie in the manifesto and then shift left once in power? I think not. ffs, the man was a big pharma lobbyist.

The Labour PLP consists mostly of careerist money-grabbers, like Smith, whose primary aim is their careers and their pockets.

Do you really believe there was no significant difference between Blair's government and Cameron's? I do not think anyone who is left of centre can credibly hold this position. Quick reminder: NHS/Minimum wage/International debt relief/devolution/paternity leave/etc. These are real things that make real differences to peoples lives.

And yeah, there's plenty to not like about Smith. I don't think (and am not suggesting) he has a secret socialist agenda. But his stated policies are much to the left of the tories, that is a fact.

There are also plenty of non Blairites in the PLP. It actually says something about Corbyn's disastrous tenure that 170-40 voted against him in the no confidence motion, because there are a lot less than 170 Blairites in the PLP. Totally separate from Corbyn's politics is the sad but inescapable fact that he is a terrible awful leader who has alienated a lot of would be allies by his mismanagement and non leadership.

 

[jimbob]

What use is power if you're not significantly different from the supposedly hated opposition?

What's Smith's plan? To lie in the manifesto and then shift left once in power? I think not. ffs, the man was a big pharma lobbyist.

The Labour PLP consists mostly of careerist money-grabbers, like Smith, whose primary aim is their careers and their pockets.

Do you really think that there was no difference between Tony Blair and Ian Duncan Smith, or Michael Howard in the 1990's?