Corbyn's days (very) numbered?

[The Don]

Can anyone see Labour winning the next election in the unlikely event that Smith is the new leader?

Seems to me that whatever leader is chosen they won't win next time unless something extraordinary happens.

I'd be happy if Smith actually managed to provide an effective opposition to a deeply split Conservative party with a tiny majority. He'd be doing his job if he did.

If he manages to do that then, depending on when the next election is, and what policies it adopts, it may gain support if its Brexit position chimes with the opinion of a majority of voters. That opinion may be quite different than it is today.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Can anyone see Labour winning the next election in the unlikely event that Smith is the new leader?

Seems to me that whatever leader is chosen they won't win next time unless something extraordinary happens.

I can't see Labour winning with anyone at the helm. Although perhaps they should follow the American example and give Alan Sugar the job?

 

[Childlike Empress]

Corbyn launches leadership campaign:


Now I think I know his sin - he's actually into progressive politics. No wonder the usual pathetic boy-wonders and harpies are afraid of him. Venceremos!

 

[jimbob]

I really think you are overestimating the impact of PMQs or general political bickering against the might of the Murdoch press and general media sentiment.

Blair was an effective opposition largely because the press sold him as such. And that was because on many things he was to the right of the Tories or at least equal.

Corbyn was hamstrung from day 1 by the media.

You need more than an ability to perform at PMQs (William Hague used to do better than Blair) but you also need to not be hopeless.

Failing to repeatedly attack the government on their weakest points is stupid.

Boris Johnson has not been an unqualified success.

 

[jimbob]

I'd be happy if Smith actually managed to provide an effective opposition to a deeply split Conservative party with a tiny majority. He'd be doing his job if he did.

If he manages to do that then, depending on when the next election is, and what policies it adopts, it may gain support if its Brexit position chimes with the opinion of a majority of voters. That opinion may be quite different than it is today.

That's pretty much my view. May would normally be in a precarious position. Corbyn's ineptitude means that she has a free hand. The SNP are effectively the opposition.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

You need more than an ability to perform at PMQs (William Hague used to do better than Blair) but you also need to not be hopeless.

Failing to repeatedly attack the government on their weakest points is stupid.

Boris Johnson has not been an unqualified success.

What are the government weak points though? Pointscoring on Boris hardly seems like an important issue for the country.

Perhaps if Labour actually had some policies we could see where the differences lie?

 

[jimbob]

What are the government weak points though? Pointscoring on Boris hardly seems like an important issue for the country.

Perhaps if Labour actually had some policies we could see where the differences lie?

Foreign Secretary is traditionally considered one of the key cabinet posts. Politics rarely has single knockout blows unless someone makes a bad mistake - what happens is that key people continually underperform and that builds to narrative of a tired government that needs replacing. Incompetence in one area leads takes the shine off the whole government - especially if there is then a messy reshuffle.

Performance in parliament is vital - the election is only a way of helping it. If the opposition have their tails up, they can cause u-turns and changes of policy. If the opposition is led by someone who is guaranteed to choose trendy stereotypical lefty* positions on everything and raise these subjects when the government messes up rather than concentrate on the government's incompetence, then government MPs will be loyal, because they aren't worried and their current leader is obviously on the up.

Corbyn's performance in the council elections supports this - he might have lost fewer seats than expected, but replicating 1982 or 1985 isn't a ringing endorsement - especially as Miliband gained seats in 2012.



*Falkland Islands, seriously?.

 

[dudalb]

What will happen if Corbyn is reelected with a large majority again?

Much rejoicing in the Tory Party....

 

[dudalb]

Can anyone see Labour winning the next election in the unlikely event that Smith is the new leader?

Seems to me that whatever leader is chosen they won't win next time unless something extraordinary happens.

Until they have an effective leader, Labor will go nowhere.
Having good leadership is essential, not optional. Amazing how many of the Corbyn backers here just do not get this.
Not saying Smith would be any better, but I would give him a chance.

 

[jimbob]

Until they have an effective leader, Labor will go nowhere.
Having good leadership is essential, not optional. Amazing how many of the Corbyn backers here just do not get this.
Not saying Smith would be any better, but I would give him a chance.

Nobody would be better than Corbyn.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Until they have an effective leader, Labor will go nowhere.
Having good leadership is essential, not optional. Amazing how many of the Corbyn backers here just do not get this.
Not saying Smith would be any better, but I would give him a chance.

Incidentally, are there any Corbyn backers here?

 

[Vixen]

Until they have an effective leader, Labor will go nowhere.
Having good leadership is essential, not optional. Amazing how many of the Corbyn backers here just do not get this.
Not saying Smith would be any better, but I would give him a chance.

People who are anti-Corbyn tend to have swallowed the negative spin - a lot of it subtle (for example, 'Theresa May really gave Corbyn a mauling' ~ BBC, and Owen Smith is getting lots of positive airtime and press space).

People don't like treachery, that's why Boris backstabber Gove was out, and also Angela Eagle.

Yesterday, >183K joined the Labour Party - including myself - in support of democracy. The Tory party, only has 120K members in total. Labour now >600K.

It's good the public can see through the tabloid spin, most of them owned by tax avoiders who want to keep getting their tax perks.

 

[jimbob]

Nobody would be better than Corbyn.

Literally nobody.

His foreign policy is pretty iffy

https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/309065744954580992?lang=en-gb

Venezuela isn't that successful now - and it wasn't looking that rosy in 2013.

The Kosovo genocide was mostly made up - http://www.parliament.uk/edm/2004-05/392
(TLDR: It's NATO and the US hegemony wot dun it)

Then there is his attitude to the Ukraine crisis (TLDR: It's NATO and the US hegemony wot dun it)

He is basically a caricature of a hard left activist.

 

[Vixen]

Literally nobody.

His foreign policy is pretty iffy

https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/309065744954580992?lang=en-gb

Venezuela isn't that successful now - and it wasn't looking that rosy in 2013.

The Kosovo genocide was mostly made up - http://www.parliament.uk/edm/2004-05/392
(TLDR: It's NATO and the US hegemony wot dun it)

Then there is his attitude to the Ukraine crisis (TLDR: It's NATO and the US hegemony wot dun it)

He is basically a caricature of a hard left activist.

And Theresa May is not a caricature of Maggie Thatcher? Vile, nasty and xenophobic. In her first Parliamentary Question Time she said she would nuke one million innocent citizens without any hesitation.

Sickening.

 

[angrysoba]

Funny sketch in the Telegraph:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...cross-jeremy-corbyn-today-we-found-out-how-h/

 

[Noztradamus]

And Theresa May is not a caricature of Maggie Thatcher? Vile, nasty and xenophobic. In her first Parliamentary Question Time she said she would nuke one million innocent citizens without any hesitation.

Sickening.

You've been told a billion times not to use hyperbole

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...kes-aim-at-jeremy-corbyn-over-trident-renewal

Intervening in her opening speech, the SNP MP George Kerevan, asked: “Is she personally prepared to authorise a nuclear strike that can kill a hundred thousand innocent men, women and children?”

May responded: “Yes. And I have to say to the honourable gentleman the whole point of a deterrent is that our enemies need to know that we would be prepared to use it, unlike some suggestions that we could have a deterrent but not actually be willing to use it, which seem to come from the Labour party frontbench.”

 

[MCel58]

I think the next election might still be in the unchartered waters territory. People voted for a variety of things in the referendum and it may not be a matter of an opposition winning but the Conservatives losing if they don't deliver what people thought they were voting for. The Conservatives did not win the referendum, but they do need to deliver it a a populist level if they want the vote at the next election. Also, if we need to keep free movement of people to get a good position on goods or we join the EEA, or the economy does start to crumble, we will see new splits in the Tories. I really don't think we are in the politics as usual game anymore.

 

[MikeG]

People who are anti-Corbyn tend to have swallowed the negative spin ........

Yeah, you just keep on telling yourself it's all the press' fault. "People" have had 30 years of experience of Corbyn. "People" have had multiple experiences of the hard left.

You think you are supporting democracy? No, you've been sucked into a personality cult, and the 1960s.

 

[MikeG]

And Theresa May is not a caricature of Maggie Thatcher? Vile, nasty and xenophobic. In her first Parliamentary Question Time she said she would nuke one million innocent citizens without any hesitation.

Sickening.

There'd be a point in having a weapon as a deterrent if you told your enemies in advance that you were not prepared to use it? You'll have to explain your contorted logic to persuade anyone of that.

 

[The Don]

People who are anti-Corbyn tend to have swallowed the negative spin

I was going to respond to this but saw that MikeG has already said pretty much everything I wanted to say.

Yeah, you just keep on telling yourself it's all the press' fault. "People" have had 30 years of experience of Corbyn. "People" have had multiple experiences of the hard left.

You think you are supporting democracy? No, you've been sucked into a personality cult, and the 1960s.

Although in my case I was a Labour Party member and activist for more than 20 years (until I could no longer stomach Blair's legacy). Corbyn reminds me of the "old school" Trots in the local parties. Their ideological blinkers present them with a bizarre and twisted view of the world.