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Will the UK actually go through with leaving the EU?

Nessie said:
The new PM Teresa May has made it clear she will be invoking Article 50 at the moment, primarily due to SNP demands and the Scottish remain vote.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36819182

"Mrs May also said she would not trigger article 50 - the formal process of the UK leaving the EU - until there was a "UK approach and objectives"."

As it stands it look very like the choice for Westminster is leave the EU, lose Scotland, stay in the EU, keep Scotland.

I presently think remain and keep Scotland is the more likely outcome.
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If only Remain and lose Scotland was an option :D
 
McHrozni said:
My personal guess is she will first have the Brexit leaders make complete eels out of themselves trying to compose a sensible strategy of Brexit, then just sink it one way or another.

That's what I'd do at any rate. Her first step matches my plan precisely.

McHrozni
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I suppose it is a possibility that May has set up the Three Brexiteers for failure and then declare that if it is even beyond the powers of these three most able men (Davis, Fox and Boris "Bojo" Whiff Whaff Johnson) to make a workable Brexit then it should be abandoned.

Still she would be doing this at the expense of fatally undermining confidence in her own government.
 
CapelDodger said:
Quite. The first reset might come when the Foreign Secretary has to go following some appalling faux pas (long odds, I know, but not impossible).
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You think Boris is at long odds to commit some appalling faux-pas? IMO, you are giving him too much credit. I'd give you 3 - 1 on! He is a thoroughly offensive person, and is almost certain to offend someone sooner rather than later.
 
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Noztradamus said:
If only Remain and lose Scotland was an option :D
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It is. Westminster has the power to dissolve the Union. But the favoured policy has been the opposite one expressed by the Speaker of the House in 1707:
We have catch’d Scotland and will bind her fast.​
 
angrysoba said:
I suppose it is a possibility that May has set up the Three Brexiteers for failure and then declare that if it is even beyond the powers of these three most able men (Davis, Fox and Boris "Bojo" Whiff Whaff Johnson) to make a workable Brexit then it should be abandoned.
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Well, to be honest, she's acting like a fox. If Brexit succeeds, she gets the credit for making the most difficult thing for the UK since at least WW2 possible. If UK leaves the EU and it's a dismal failure, she can rightfully blame the proponents of Brexit who both pushed it through and were in charge of making it work. If they fail and she stops it in time, she's done all she could to follow the will of the electorate, but when the main Brexitars have shown how accurate this name for them is, she prevented the damage from spreading further.

She personally stands to win no matter what happens. The fact she made Boris Johnson a foreign secretary shows to me she does not believe in Brexit at all and expects them to fail, but she has all the bases covered regardless.

Still she would be doing this at the expense of fatally undermining confidence in her own government.
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If the put Boris Johnson in place as a foreign secretary because she expect him to do well in the post I want some of what she's been smoking. It's good hallucinogenic stuff, apparently.

McHrozni
 
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McHrozni said:
If the put Boris Johnson in place as a foreign secretary because she expect him to do well in the post I want some of what she's been smoking. It's good hallucinogenic stuff, apparently.

McHrozni
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Indeed, but that leads to the possible charge of irresponsible leadership rather than cunning. I don't think she would be applauded for saying, "Aha! I have skillfully made the country a laughing stock as a way of destroying my enemies in the party."
 
angrysoba said:
Indeed, but that leads to the possible charge of irresponsible leadership rather than cunning. I don't think she would be applauded for saying, "Aha! I have skillfully made the country a laughing stock as a way of destroying my enemies in the party."
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Maybe, but she really doesn't have much choice in the matter. If she doesn't put these freaks in charge of Brexit and doesn't follow through, they will come back and bite her backside ... straight off.

She doesn't need to just destroy the enemies within her party, those same people are enemies of the UK as well. Much of the British electorate is sadly too stupid to realize or acknowledge that.

McHrozni
 
angrysoba said:
I suppose it is a possibility that May has set up the Three Brexiteers for failure and then declare that if it is even beyond the powers of these three most able men (Davis, Fox and Boris "Bojo" Whiff Whaff Johnson) to make a workable Brexit then it should be abandoned.

Still she would be doing this at the expense of fatally undermining confidence in her own government.
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Your final paragraph explains why your first paragraph, and the assumption in the OP, is wrong. Yes, we will leave the EU, because if we didn't after a clear result in a referendum the Conservatives wouldn't get into government again in decades. Not only is Brexit the right thing to do for the Conservatives sake, though, but very much more importantly, for the sake of democracy. Ignoring the clearly expressed will of the majority because it doesn't suit some in the political elite would be scandalous, immoral, and suicidal.
 
MikeG said:
Not only is Brexit the right thing to do for the Conservatives sake, though, but very much more importantly, for the sake of democracy. Ignoring the marginally expressed will of the plurality because it doesn't suit some in the political elite, because it would be ruinous for the country, because it would hurt the general population and because this victory was won by lies and deceit would be scandalous, immoral, and suicidal.
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FTFY.

McHrozni
 
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When the financial system implodes -- the general expert opinion -- the EU will cease to be a major entity in any present day sense .
Just limit this proposition to the fall of one or more Italian banks plus Deutsche Bank -- very real current probabilities .
Then in financial terms both Germany and Italy will suffer hugely ( DB has $72 trillion derivatives exposure) and contagion will spread across the globe .
Our position vis a vis the EU will almost be irrelevant .
 
MikeG said:
Your final paragraph explains why your first paragraph, and the assumption in the OP, is wrong. Yes, we will leave the EU, because if we didn't after a clear result in a referendum the Conservatives wouldn't get into government again in decades. Not only is Brexit the right thing to do for the Conservatives sake, though, but very much more importantly, for the sake of democracy. Ignoring the clearly expressed will of the majority because it doesn't suit some in the political elite would be scandalous, immoral, and suicidal.
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It would be just as scandalous if Turkey didn't join the EU, how are they going to make that happen ?
 
Malbec said:
When the financial system implodes -- the general expert opinion -- the EU will cease to be a major entity in any present day sense .
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I think you've confused the words "if" and "when" :rolleyes:

Malbec said:
Just limit this proposition to the fall of one or more Italian banks plus Deutsche Bank -- very real current probabilities .
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You've been claiming this for a while now.....


Malbec said:
Then in financial terms both Germany and Italy will suffer hugely ( DB has $72 trillion derivatives exposure) and contagion will spread across the globe .
Our position vis a vis the EU will almost be irrelevant .
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You keep posting this and as has been repeatedly pointed out, that's the total exposure but not the net exposure. If I have $1bn long exposure and $1bn short exposure then by your measure, my net exposure is $2bn but my net exposure is $0.

Deutsche Bank's net exposure to derivatives is a tiny, tiny fraction of the $72tn you quote.
 
The Don said:
You keep posting this and as has been repeatedly pointed out, that's the total exposure but not the net exposure. If I have $1bn long exposure and $1bn short exposure then by your measure, my net exposure is $2bn but my net exposure is $0.

Deutsche Bank's net exposure to derivatives is a tiny, tiny fraction of the $72tn you quote.
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He seems to think that constantly repeating a scary number constitutes an actual argument.
 
smartcooky said:
You think Boris is at long odds to commit some appalling faux-pas? IMO, you are giving him too much credit. I'd give you 3 - 1 on! He is a thoroughly offensive person, and is almost certain to offend someone sooner rather than later.
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Charles Clark on Any questions on Friday was quite scathing about Boris Johnson.
 
McHrozni said:
My personal guess is she will first have the Brexit leaders make complete eels out of themselves trying to compose a sensible strategy of Brexit, then just sink it one way or another.

That's what I'd do at any rate. Her first step matches my plan precisely.

McHrozni
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Good plan.
 
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